Hey Guys, Been looking at a few of the cross rates today EUR/USD, GBP/USD there looks to be quite a rally in the USD. This is also reflected in the DXY today(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY:IND). Although we are yet to see any sharp decline in AUD/CHF could this be a turning point similar to that seen in April last year when the DXY rallied to 88.7. You may notice i have not included the YEN in my example of cross's that's simply because the BOJ intervene all the time. Last time we had the USD rally we saw AUD hit around the 82c mark which i suspect is possible again especially if recession is starting like zerohedge pointed out today(http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-economy-quietly-entered-recession-friday-and-why-gdp-predicts-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-numb). For all those hardcore gold/silver bugs the last time this happened was when we saw quite a spike in gold/silver. What's everybody else think?
Once again today we saw quite another rally in the DXY(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY:IND) which is now at 74.476. Once again we saw strength in the AUD moving into 1.07 territory some how defying the DXY strength but how long can it last? Will a correction in the AUD accelerate a lift in the DXY?
We have different definitions of quite a rally. A big rally in the USD would thrill me, but it isn't going to happen. The USD rallies have been weaker and weaker and weaker. A sharp drop in the USD is far more likely than a rally. I hope you are correct.
During late 2008, almost everything was sold off, but there were two financial assets which boomed. One was Treasury debt, the other was the US Dollar. While Gold and everything else was falling, the US Dollar index soared from 73 to 88.2 between early August and late November 2008. Compare that to what is happening now. Treasuries are soaring but the US Dollar is, at best, flat. And Gold in every major paper currency has gone ballistic.
So let's dig up this thread again in December and talk then? Where do you think the USD will be? I agree we haven't seen any major rally yet, but we may still see one. Rumours of the imminent demise of the USD have been floating round for years and obviously anticipate a future most on this forum expect, I assume. But, IMHO, many are too early with their predictions and the USD will still rally against other currencies (if not gold).
Interesting view from the Daily Pfennig yesterday http://www.dailypfennig.com/ That currency weakness has carried over to this morning's trading, especially in the euro, which has seen about 1% taken off its figure from yesterday morning. You know if the euro wasn't the offset currency to the dollar, it would be much weaker, probably down to parity or even below But, that's not the case here The euro, gets strength in dollar weakness, I know it sounds weird, but that's the way it is The things going on in the Eurozone, aren't that much different than what's going on here Yes, at least they've acknowledged the problem and are addressing it Here, we hold up banners saying we want to do something, but then forget about it, because it is far easier to spend what you don't have, than to be held hostage by a budget!
I figure the problems in the US will actually show through more if they do address their budget issues. They have both fiscal and monetary policy working to prop things up.
Had a rally in DXY last night to 76. This is actually in line with the previous 2 tops this year. Time will tell but we have either hit hit a top for DXY and it's back down or it continues up. For now i believe we will still see quite a rise.
Not long til we hit parity agin, huh. A number of people here saw this coming, but far more on the forum were expecting a dollar collapse, US default, etc. Next on the debunking list is imminent hyper inflation.
Back again fellas, Well it looks like things have panned out DXY currently at 78.354. Despite what some people say its not all over yet for the USD. I suspect we will begin to see a similar rally as seen in 2010 to around 87/88 on the DXY. I know for some of us on this forum it has been something we have seen coming for a while now. Since this is a gold/silver forum i should add i am very bullish on Gold/silver now especially if the AUD corrects down to 80c. We could see a significant spike in Gold/silver when priced in AUD like 2009. Very exciting times indeed.
