PM's to crash in 2011

Discussion in 'Silver' started by euphoria, Jan 23, 2011.

  1. euphoria

    euphoria New Member

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  2. goldpelican

    goldpelican Administrator Staff Member

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    Dunno, but there's a few of us on this board hoping JP Morgan et al don't get a flush on the river.

    ...and probably more hoping that they do :)
     
  3. villiagegate

    villiagegate New Member

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    Perhaps he's right. Perhaps he's not. But he doesn't actually offer his analysis, only his conclusion. He isn't talking bullion, only the ETF's. I don't know, but it doesn't really convince me...
     
  4. intelligencer

    intelligencer Active Member

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    Its immaterial really.

    Price Value
     
  5. hem9

    hem9 Active Member Silver Stacker

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    No analysis just his opinion and basically as he states a qualifier "if my analysis is correct".
     
  6. Slam

    Slam Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Seems like the person that wrote the article is a paper gold and silver trader.

    Yeah those prices can drop when no one wants the ponzi paper ETF gold/silver.

    Slam
     
  7. euphoria

    euphoria New Member

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    I have convinced myself of one thing. That if PM's do crash, so will the AUD so net for net it will be the same. Might as well buy now.... lol
     
  8. downer

    downer New Member

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    Would it though? When PM's crashed in the GFC they fell faster then the exchange rate.
     
  9. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Exactly. It's a different world now, and the bottom line is, I think, that metals will hold value because that have value. Paper currency has no value. If you don't think that is true, watch what happens to the "rock" of currency, the US dollar over the next year. It's toast.
     
  10. tthace

    tthace New Member

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    Gold might lose its shine if the US economy recovers. But at the moment, Government is still printing money, raising debt levels, unemployment at 10% (What the government says it is) . Until we see that unemployment level drop, i don't think Gold will be tanking anytime soon. We still have Euro debts problems.

    Im more worried about China bubble bursting than Gold tanking. That has an effect which will cripple Australia.
     
  11. digger

    digger New Member

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    Hahaha should I even read the article before I respond? Nope I won't.....dip down to 1275, anything close to or below 1300 & I'm going balls deep in gold.

    1-2 more weeks of gold/silver consolidation then a great run up to the march comex contracts.

    Ok I'll read the article now & see why I'm wrong :)
     
  12. euphoria

    euphoria New Member

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    That is my thoughts also. My concern is that silver shorts are covering, would they try and beat it down further so they can cover some more? and F%$ing lol at balls deep and gold.
     
  13. digger

    digger New Member

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    Ok so no mention of real gold & silver prices. Can only assume the charts on the ETF's have over extended beyond the price action of the real stuff. I guess that's what happens when a few banks can sell as much paper PM as they want.

    He's probably right, without seeing the ETF charts.

    On the real stuff Im sure he would sing a different tune. Have patience for another week but get ready to pounce.

    My finger is on the trigger for a monster box of silver eagles & 20oz of gold, come on 25ish & sub 1300!
     
  14. digger

    digger New Member

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    Yeah ok 20oz of gold maybe isn't balls deep in gold but when it sits on top of my silver stack it's covering the gear
     
  15. MelbBrad

    MelbBrad New Member

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    'balls deep' ..... oh, the imagery.... :eek:
     
  16. digger

    digger New Member

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    Imagery!? Hmmm

    Have no fear.
     
  17. projack

    projack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I read this on the Friday currency report.
    If we really have shortage the downside is short and limited to by the big speculators.

    http://www.dailypfennig.com/

    Well Gold & Silver sure got taken to the woodshed and whacked yesterday! Gold, at one point in the day was down $21, and Silver was down over $1. Those are huge moves folks I really noticed the move down in Silver, and asked out metals traders, Jen and Kristin, what was going on Jen, said that she had just gotten off the phone with a metals dealer, and he said it was "backwardation" Having never heard that term before, in all my years on a trading desk, I was determined to find out what it meant, and why it was weighing heavily on the price of Silver So, Kristin sent me this note

    In financial terminology, backwardation means a downward sloping forward curve (inverted yield curve). A backwardation starts when the difference between the forward price and the spot price is less than the cost of carry, or when there can be no delivery arbitrage because the asset is not currently available for purchase. The term is sometimes applied to forward prices as opposed to future contracts. For example, if it costs more to lease silver for 30 days than for 60 days, it might be said that the silver lease rates are "in backwardation".

    There were tons of rumors of "significant producer hedging". This would cause the backwardation as banks would be scrambling to borrow silver against their hedge.

    In other words, folks someone didn't have the Silver to deliver Hmm I know this is all new and confusing, but, simply think of it price manipulation
     
  18. digger

    digger New Member

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    From what I've read backwardation doesn't happen often & is bullish for current holders of physical & long termers.

    I did have a report of it, will try & dig it up.
     
  19. mistamillions

    mistamillions New Member

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    I have been following the writings of Martin Armstrong http://armstrongeconomics.com/writings/ he believes that gold should be aiming for major low around june, which he considers to be very bullish in the long term..here is the article http://armstrongeconomics.files.wor...nomics-are-you-ready-to-rumble-01-05-2011.pdf. I really recommend reading this article and if you have time all his other writings and his story, interesting guy who got totally stiched by the US Government and some shady bankers.

    Anyway, I personally am hoping that we do get a major low in June, if this does go as he says, I will be loading up on PM's like a mofo, Pullbacks are good!
     
  20. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

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    I hope silver goes down so far I can have a pool full of kooks :)

    My wife thinks I am crazy buying silver and praying for the price to fall :p

    Trying to convince my dad into a few oz, but all truth is revealed... and he is blind ATM :(
     

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