Ok, here's a play portfolio I'm going to track for a while and see how it goes. I'm posting this here really just for laughs and as a learning experience as I hope to cop some good critical feedback either way. I've tried to make sure that it's not all focussed on one particular economic outlook ie a US recession. Hence I have SPY as a play on a stronger rather than weaker US economy, The Fed pausing etc etc etc etc. I'm going UUP as a recessionary play in a global environment of shrinking liquidity and a charge to USD. As this is a precious metals forum I'm going long gold in GLD. If there is a world wide recession that just drags out rather than smacks hard (see previous purchase) then gold may be a nice play as long as investors aren't scrambling for the USD. The last selection is controversial. I'm shorting silver with ZSL. Now generally gold and silver move up and down in a highly correlated dance. I'm punting that the "generally" won't apply in a recessionary environment that is also chasing safe havens ie gold up/silver down nor in one where credit contracts. I haven't got any BTC etc in this portfolio as I have NFI how the top cryptos price performance will play out in recessionary environment "2" where people are chasing low risk. I'd say if we're in type 1 then BTC will drop. No stop losses, no allocating % of funds, just buying and following for a while ie absolutely no risk management. 4 assets, $10000 in each asset. 1. Buy now UUP @ USD28.61. 350 shares total $10013.50 2. Buy GLD @ USD182.32. 54.85 shares $10000.25 3. Buy SPY @ USD417.85. 23.9 shares $9986.62 4. Buy ZSL @ USD19.33. 517.33 shares $9999.99
Sorry bout the crappy screenshot quality...but gold through the ages typically performs better in recessionary period, for this and other reasons I have far larger allocation to yellow monetary metal and not the silver industrial one.
@Real $, yep, I've seen similar. I'm trying to cover a few different scenarios. So for example if we have an environment where the S+P rises then gold is a likely loser. But then if we get 1980 - 1982 again god help us all. I think the S+P rising and therefore gold falling scenario is less likely than other scenarios so I'll adjust my portfolio accordingly. 1. Buy now UUP @ USD28.61. 559 shares total $15992.99 2. Buy GLD @ USD182.32. 55 shares $10027.60 3. Buy SPY @ USD417.85. 24 shares $10028.40 4. Buy ZSL @ USD19.33. 207 shares $4001.31 Based on an allocation of UUP (40%), GLD and SPY (25% ea) and ZSL (10%).
It's probably a bit early to be buying ZSL as it hasn't shown any confirmation of a reversal but for the sake of this thread we'll just go ahead and do it.
Imo physical gold in bulk is already hard to trade on a (P2P) level. Good store as wealth as always but people just don’t have the cash to empty their wallets in ounces. I think it will also get worse as recession bites and cash is further strapped. I’m still finding solid barter value on silver coins and good premium increase on long-storage lunars and kooks. So many strategies, and they will depend on individual circumstance and goals. Will follow this one as it’s a good insight on alternative strategy. Wealth comes in many forms… network is also important - private or institutional, and what mix? with the right connections you could get a retaining wall or roof reconstruction built on your house for cash and pay 30% of retail price for example, yet it will add multipliers to the house value. It’s time to think outside the box, imo.. if you act as though society has already collapsed you will do well. It’s no surprise that professional sales people have some of the most lucrative jobs. You can’t get a phd in sales or negotiation, those skills come with many failures and sacrifices that don’t come with certificates of attainment, and those skills are valued by all kinds of markets (legit, grey, black). As long as you keep government happy with tax, permits and transparency with regards to mandatory/obvious requirements you will be looked after
I set the stop-loss for ZSL too high. Fell a few cents below the 18.55 level and would've got stopped out. So I'm setting it at 15.60 as it's a fairly volatile stock.
A couple of hypothesis: 1. the stock market is the best inflation hedge 2. gold is a hedge against the unexpected It appears that when the SPY suffers a downturn, then gold will reach new highs or return to its previous price levels before the SPY returns to the level it was at previously. Something to think about long term, especially if anyone is interested in setting up a fund for minors or you're young and looking for a decades long plan. For example this is the price action over the past 1/4 of a century.
Stocks are "productive asset" while gold sits there like a rock producing no dividends,etc...but it does have an eye catching pretty shine and is my favourite physical asset to stack, roll around in my hands and hold up to see the light reflecting off it Beautiful, finite and a source of insurance and security in a world gone to hell...long term growth too going by charts. Bought into stocks to gain exposure to things I can't own like healthcare, commodities that cant hold like uranium,etc and diversify so can own a tiny piece of different things...dont gamble anymore but I'll bet on people continuing to gamble and hopefully enjoying the dividends and growth from punters play. As an amateur find not watching hard need to realise the set and forget mentality, on long enough timeline I think quality companies AND gold will grow...if we're not dead by then
I reckon that's spot on. And probably no need for a stop-loss if your time horizon is measured in decades. The key is to start early, not leave leave it until you enter that "contemplative" phase in life. And from a grandparent's perspective we can supercharge that early start long before they're even capable of spelling "contemplative".
This will be the last weekly update, I'll go to a monthly update from now. I was updating weekly just to generate some interest. For anyone that's interested I'm holding off opening a personal position in GLD as I'm eying off the USD168 mark. I've held SPY since the beginning of the year and won't be adding to my position there as I'm watching a few price points with it. The first being the low to mid USD420's and then we'll see how it plays out from there and the low USD410's is a S/R zone. By the time I do the next update here we'll know what's happened with both of those positions. I do hold UUP and ZSL and have no plans to add/alter my position in them at the moment.
Could get stopped out on UUP and ZSL shortly. Recession seems the last thing on the mind of market participants. Opened a position in GLD @182.44 in a private portfolio.
Re: UUP. Extra bit of pain there for me when you look at the FX rate as the AUD has climbed from USD0.65 to USD0.67.
