Hi all, I've read articles and reports with nice looking graphs and data, but I wanted to hear from you guys on peak silver. Something real or just imagined?
It's a theory. Would't be surprised if in my lifetime it actually happens. I know that one bank BMO had charts that showed world wide production levelling out in the next 10 years or so. I'll see if I can find it and post it. The world needs to see that right now. Shhhh don't tell anyone, they also predicted a bit of a surplus of silver to happen sometime after 2014. So it could be a good decade ahead before we see that $1000 silver the speculators theorize about in the future. source: see page 11 - figure 19 http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/4AA0CD5D-F644-43C1-90E2-9081AA262E06.PDF Here's another interesting chart from Silver Wheaton showing doubling industrial demand into 2015:
$1,000 silver, maybe when a Big Mac costs $150 (bmi big mac index) Ha SBMR, silver to big mac ratio As for contributing to the conversation.... With the population rising so rapidly, increased demand for silver from the technology industry and consumerism on the up and up i wouldn't be surprised if we are using alot of silver and it starts to become a little scarce world wide but I also think it wouldn't be too long before we can either find/manufacture a substitute or an even better alternative. Then theres also the likely hood that they will develop a more viable way to recycle silver
There's articles to support both sides. Chris Martensen possibly puts up the "best" case based on his peak energy return on investment ideas but even that theory has counterarguments (principally that, although many sources can't easily substitute - notably diesel - many others can at the right price and that there are caps on the cost of diesel-equivalent). Anyway a few previous discussion on this issue are: HERE HERE HERE Personally, except for the EROI argument I think most other arguments about peak silver simply ignore the point that most silver is a mining by-product at current prices. At triple the current price, say, more mines will simply become primary silver mines with lead/copper/etc. as a by product and silver production could continue to grow (albeit with a higher price). From memory there are a few credible estimates that this switch could happen for as low as $50-$80/oz. Prices are volatile relative to production of course, so they could shoot up way past that before coming back down. Demand growth outstripping supply growth is the usual reason why prices will increase.
This may be a chart you haven't seen yet: http://www.labnol.org/home/how-long-will-metals-last/10648/ The day will come where we do run out of silver, gold, and other metals - and likewise, of course, we will go/have gone through peak <insert anything here>. I don't know that it's possible to accurately forecast when that will happen - it's probably a lot clearer with 20/20 hindsight?
I don't think its so much a matter of running out per say, as it will happen by population explosions that it will all be taken through purchases of electronics, ect. So it will run out, but only because there's too many damn people in the world.
I think TPTB are working pretty hard to fix that... Avian flu ver 9 anyone?... maybe 'they' got it 'right' this time?
Thanks Midnight Man. If I read this infographic right... the world has 29 years of silver supply remaining, assuming emerging economies aren't going to increase their consumption. If the world consumes at half the rate of the US, that global supply of sliver is gone in only 10 years.
People are finding alternatives to replace silver, at least I know solar panel companies are doing so.
Correct, though you may have missed one minor point - mostly because I didn't highlight it in my post. This infographic was made in October 2009 - 3.5 years ago now - so in theory, you should subtract 3.5 years from all numbers shown
I am a stacker all the way, but peak silver will not happen and Ill tell you why.... Right now we are in a 3 horse race for collapse. It is neck and neck, between financial melt-down, climate change and resource depletion. In my opinion, the money market may just be pulling ahead for the medium term. Infinite growth on a finite planet is delusion, but sadly, our fractional reserve, debt based monetary system means that without constant growth, things fall apart as we are seeing around the world now. What does that mean long term for silver? Industrial demand will decline. All those solar panels, electronic widgets, super computers will never be built, because we simply don't have the financial resources to drive that kind of growth. Even if we had the money, we lack the energy (oil) to sustainably generate it. It is the same argument as peak oil. Will we run out of oil? No. But will it become prohibitively expensive for the majority? Yes. And once that majority can longer get to work, they stop earning, start defaulting on loans, lose jobs and don't need the oil anyway - so we won't run out - a proportion will stay in the ground. Regards;
