Peak Silver and Exit Strategy

Discussion in 'Silver' started by mickjohn, Jan 26, 2011.

  1. mickjohn

    mickjohn New Member

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    In the period from 1966 to 1980 the price of silver went from:
    1.29 to $48. over 14 years equating to a 36x increase in value.

    From those figures and adjusting for inflation, I come out with a Peak Silver price (for this bullrun) of around $250/oz. Which is almost a ten fold increase from where we are today.

    Im interested to hear other peoples expectations on the POS at peak and even exit strategy.
    ie. 20% sold at double DCA
    20% sold at triple DCA
    30% sold at 5x DCA
    20% sold at any period after this
    10% retained.
     
  2. euphoria

    euphoria New Member

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    Unrelated, but my pet peeve is people who misuse the term 'fold'. 1 fold is double, 2 fold is 4 times, 3 fold is 8 times, 4 fold is 16 times. When you 'fold' a piece of paper it becomes twice as thick.
     
  3. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

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    For me I'm leaving it somewhat open ended. If they stop printing money then I'll think more about it but averaging out slowly is a good idea if your inclined to take profits.
     
  4. Flip

    Flip New Member

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    Does anyone think, until the money system gets changed to being backed by gold/other items of value, there wont be any major crash in silver/gold prices? or end of phase 3

    any thoughts?
     
  5. dccpa

    dccpa Active Member

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    My exit strategy will be based upon ratio analysis of pms vs. each other and other commodities, dow jones, etc. I still expect dow-gold ratio to reach around 1-.65 in 4-5 years.
     
  6. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

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    I read the title and thought it was going to be a different topic... like peak oil

    i.e. since silver is a usable commodity and a limited resource eventually production will peak and supply will tighten and prices will go up... this IMHO means silver, unless this electronic age stops with a bang will never stop appreciating... unlike gold... just a theory

    read this for a laugh

    http://www.kontentkonsult.com/peak_silver2.htm

    Production by country Aus # 4

    http://www.indexmundi.com/minerals/?product=silver&graph=production
     
  7. Nub Cannon

    Nub Cannon New Member

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    when silver hits the moon I will hop off the silver train :p

    If and when the US economy (as well as EU economies) get back on track will the POS plummet or will the price stay the same/ increase due to increased industrial usage?
     
  8. Aengrod

    Aengrod Member

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    Same here. The moment gold gonna go below 2 vs dow, at the same time silver will close the gap with gold - good moment for a swap.
    I think this time will go below 1.65. Maybe even parity for a short while.
     
  9. boston

    boston Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Whilst we all know that silver will reach new heights, be wary of using the Hunt Brothers $48 guide as an accurate indicator in the calculations. Undoubtly historic, there are some commentators that believe this was an aberration in the silver price.
     
  10. Peter

    Peter Well-Known Member

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    IMO
    How could anyone know for sure.Anything is possible in todays confused situation.
    But ,as see it ,PMs could lose.Yes,they could crash.

    The last thing the money men would like is money to be tied to anything real and stable.
    They would probably do anything,anything no matter how damaging, they could to stop it.
    As long as it didn't effect their own bank balances.

    There are people in the world that wouldn't care if they destroyed the lives of millions of people,
    if it profited them economically.

    No one can know what will come out of todays grim and confused situation.
    But I see Gold as a best bet.
    You might lose on it but of all the possibilities,it 's the one thats safest for us little people.

    There is all this opinion and information out there.Masses of it,all contradictory and asserting its right.
    How can they be so sure saying such opposite things while looking at the same evidence.
    No one can possibly know.

    But we humans can't stay fearful for too long ,we need to feel comfortable.
    So we take a position where we think that things will end up all right;in fact we'll end up rich and safe.

    I think gold might win ,but it will be fearfully challanged before that.I expect it to go down bad
    ,however my best chance is to hang on.Hang on for a wide ride.Many won't.

    Now other people disagree with me.They think it will be smooth sailing from now on.
    I wouldn't be too surprised if this happened.I hope it does happen.
     
  11. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

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    I agree with Peter, I hope there is no SHTF, no vertical silver, no hyper inflation, no peak oil, no american economic collapse BUT... I am no sheeple, I don't intend to go ostrich and my normalcy bias is well and truly switched off SO... silver and preps for me
     
  12. projack

    projack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    First we had the gold standard and when that was abused we had the fiat system to be able borrow even more money to bring forward economic grows.
    On the beginning that worked but in 2010 1.7 trillion money printing, only resulted in 0.3 trillion economic grows. (The liability side is not calculated in the GDP) That is all what the fiat system can do on the long run. Since payback is not an opinion anymore guess what is waiting for the US. The world reserve fiat system today is only based on the US government ability able to come up with the interest payment on their outstanding debt they have accumulated during this fiat system era. We have reached the point when the US is printing money to pay that interest payment and to manipulate the currency market to keep that interest payment liability down to the minimum. Yet the outstanding US debt is increasing every second, and interest rate only can go up from here. Since this very disturbing fundamental problem is not even open for discussion, indicating to me that the US is already chosen the collapse option, but wants to delay the proses as long as they possibly can. Unfortunately the 1980 situation is not relevant anymore or can be repeated, as the US is already struggling with their interest payment. Their reserve currency status is also eroding slowly as one country after the other is opting out from US$ settlement option in their trade, resulting even more and more US$ find their way back home. The world slowly getting enough from the US arrogances like, "the dollar is our currency, but your problem" and sending the message to the US that keep your f**** problems at home. Resolving the current currency crises on the 1980 high 20% interest way is no longer a viable option without the total collapse of the US dollar first.
    For this reason talking of exit strategy on peak silver today makes not much sense to me, because I did not buy silver on the expectation that one day it will go to bubble and I will profit from that bubble.
     
  13. greyman68

    greyman68 New Member

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    Do I think Silver will be worth more per ounce in 25 years?? ABSOLUTELY, I will have a large Stack by then and will sell it off piecemeal to fund my retirement. I will also have a reasonable amount of Gold. I prefer to have my money in precious metals than paper Fiat which the Government constantly devalues. Some call it Speculation, some call it a Gamble, BUT nothing ventured, nothing gained. I know many that thought Real Estate was rock solid, but now they are paying a huge mortgage on a devalued house and are not happy. Everything is a risk, but you have to risk to get somewhere. My educated researched guess is that i will make a profit, so keep on Stacking.
     
  14. BullionBull

    BullionBull New Member

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    +1

    There will be no "pop" and fall in prices, as happened in the 80s. We are heading into times when PMs gain and retain permanently high values. I want to go on record here predicting a PM "High Plateau" for the next few hundred years. It will start within 15 years.
     
  15. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

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    if we last that long... can you imagine America with a collapsed economy, 100 million pissed Americans, 200 million guns and a few thousand nukes :eek:... this is not like the Russian collapse where America put back the pieces and the outside world was relatively unaffected... I mean can you imagine China helping america post collapse... this is a whole new ball game. If I lived in America right now I would move to Tunisia... seriously
     
  16. Argentum

    Argentum Well-Known Member

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    i think silver will not go up that much and it hasnt gone up that much in last 40 years. an example someone recently put on SS is that a 50c piece in 1966 could buy you lunch and so it could today if u sold it for fiat. so in actual terms you didnt gain anything except protect your wealth. If you could get today 5-6 lunches from the sale of that coin then it would be gaining wealth. I see stacking asa protection of wealth much better than a bank can except for the bit if u get a burglar. So whenever i have stacked enough i can buy a property or whatever. You dont pay tax on it. and its not a gamble i think having your money in fiat or term deposits is more of a gamble
     
  17. gbickle

    gbickle Member

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    take a look at this chart... gold vs real estate in australia ... http://www.bullionmark.com.au/gold-research/blog/2010/06/11/74-gold-vs-australian-real-estate.html
    Real Estate has gone through cycles of being overvalued then undervalued .. In 1966 Real Estate was quite overvalued compared to gold / silver. Right now according to the chart we are heading back down with real estate... Looking at the chart It looks like a good exit point would be when the median priced australian home is worth approximately 50 ounces of gold.

    I guess what im trying to say is that its best to play the cycles if you want to get rich... ;)
     
  18. bellinvest

    bellinvest New Member

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    Great read! 50oz of gold for a house would be a steel in the near future :D

    Looks like it is heading that way!
     
  19. goldpelican

    goldpelican Administrator Staff Member

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    Saw plenty of 3BR homes in Florida a few weeks ago built in the last 10 years for 35oz. There's just no-one to live in them.
     
  20. Argentum

    Argentum Well-Known Member

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    love that graph
     

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