Panda 's are dead in the water

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by spannermonkey, Jul 22, 2013.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Update:

    pandies = $58.67/oz
    Krooks = $32.50/oz

    That's pretty dead. :lol:
     
  2. spannermonkey

    spannermonkey Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    here there everywhere

    I was talking about 2013 mainly
     
  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ I know, but I am enjoying myself any way.

    Maybe you should change the thread title. ;)
     
  4. spannermonkey

    spannermonkey Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    :p
    NAH
     
  5. Lunardragon

    Lunardragon Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ lol
    you two must be lovers in the past time lol
     
  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    What? You mean like monkey love?

    [​IMG]


    No thanks. :lol:
     
  7. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-42882-letter-profitting-from-pandas.html

    Silver is down from $30/oz (Feb) to $20/oz. Down 33%
    2013 1oz Silver Panda MS69 is down from $51USD (Feb) to $37USD (Jul). Down 27%

    There is a 6% margin of difference, which means that there is room for profit!

    E.g. If you had $1000 invested in Pandas in Feb, that would be worth 19.61x 2013 1oz Silver Pandas. By July, that would be worth $725.49.

    However, if in Feb you had $1000 invested in Ag ETFs, bullion, etc, which was worth 33.33oz; today that would be worth $667.

    You being the shrewd Panda player notice the margin between the two, and smell the potential for profit. You exploit the margin by some of these methods:
    i) Selling your 2013 Pandas at a loss, and then buying Ag ETFs, bullion, etc; whereby you could have approx. 36.27oz of Ag, growing your personal precious metal treasury by 10% even when spot and Pandas had a down season!
    ...
    ---

    The above example was using the MS69s as an example. If we look at the ungraded OMP values, the potential for profit is even greater.

    Silver is down from $30/oz (Feb) to $20/oz. Down 33%
    2013 1oz Silver Panda $44 (Feb) down to $33 (Jul). Down 25%
    That's an 8% margin. Which means that you have the potential to grow your physical bullion stack by about 8% even with spot silver and panda fiat prices falling.

    If you had $1000 invested in 2013 Pandas in Feb, that would be worth 22.72x 2013 1oz Silver Pandas. By July, that would be worth $749.76.

    By comparison, if you had $1000 invested in bullion, etfs, etc, that would be worth 33.33oz in Feb. By July that would be worth just $667.

    Pandas did better by about $83 in cash terms over bullion... and if you exploited the 8% margin between the two, you could grow your silver stack by around that much and potentially more too.
     
  8. hem9

    hem9 Active Member Silver Stacker

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    How did you get your computation for bullion?
    For Pandas you divided 1000/44=22.72 x 33 (your value) = 749.76
    For bullion you divided 1000/30= 33.33 x 20 (?) = 667

    That does not make any sense, no one sells bullion for 20(?) a 2013 kook would still go for close to 30 (around $28)
    a fairer assessment would be average bullion coins for 26-28 = 866.58 - 933.24
     
  9. clubman

    clubman Member

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    Totally agree, that's why 2012 pandas are far more valuable than 2011's.

    These are prices in China in the last 3 days.
    2011: RMB$193
    2012: RMB$243
    2013: RMB$160
     
  10. Lunardragon

    Lunardragon Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Sorry...my nob question .....

    When we calculate the reduction in pricing on the above graded panda, should we consider the grading cost?

    so If I have a 2013 panda which currently cost AUD$31ea and the grading cost lets say AUD$30 all up, then my total cost is AUD$61.
    if now the resale value $37USD (and roughly $40AUD), then wont my investment down by 35%?
     
  11. clubman

    clubman Member

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    $37 is a SOLD price, you actually get a bit less, 7% by ebay, 3% by paypal.... you don't get much left at all.
     
  12. Justfishin

    Justfishin New Member

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    Yes.lt never pays to grade within about 3 yrs of issue. Cheaper to pick them up on the market with grade already achieved. I picked up a ton of 2013 NGC-MS70 pandas on a great sale for $60 USD each. I'll take that all day long. :)
     
  13. Lunardragon

    Lunardragon Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    thank you JF
    will do then
     
  14. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi Hem9,

    yes the bullion price will vary depending on the type of bullion purchased - but the rate and amount of decrease and increase should be approximately the same - since the nature of bullion bars/coins/junk/ETFs/etc is to follow the price of spot.

    E.g. If I bought a Kook in Feb, it would have probably been around $38.25USD. Today, a Kook goes for $25.70USD (which is $28AUD). The drop in the price of Kooks (around 33%) is equal to the drop in the price of spot (which is what we should expect from bullion coins).

    If we use the 1oz Silver 2013 Kooks as an example -
    2013 1oz Silver Kook $38.25USD (Feb) down to $25.70USD=$28AUD (Jul). Down 33%.

    So if we run the numbers again:
    Silver is down from $30USD/oz (Feb) to $20USD/oz. Down 33%
    2013 1oz Silver Kook $38.25USD (Feb) down to $25.70USD (Jul). Down 33%
    2013 1oz Silver Panda $44USD (Feb) down to $33USD (Jul). Down 25%

    That's an 8% margin. Which means that you have the potential to grow your physical bullion stack by about 8% even with spot silver and panda fiat prices falling. By selling your Pandas at a loss and then immediately purchasing bullion/Kooks/etc it is possible to accumulate a greater number of total ounces of silver than if you had initially just purchased Kooks in Feb.
     
  15. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If you sell between forums, buddies, local dealers, etc, there is less overhead :)

    I don't like selling on Ebay for those very reasons listed above :)
     
  16. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes, the total cost of your 2013 Panda should including grading fees, postage, etc. So if the total cost is $61, and the resale is $40, then yes, your investment is down by around 35%.

    Hopefully:
    i) you managed to score a few MS70s to help offset that loss.
    OR
    ii) you managed to purchase some MS69s from others who factored in the profits from their MS70s (eg. MCM, etc).
     
  17. Silver Bullion Boy

    Silver Bullion Boy New Member

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    I can only get 5% above spot for my 2003 1/2 gold panda which is a joke! Yeah I would say Pandas are dead in the water!!
     
  18. worldbubble

    worldbubble Active Member

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    I'm buying pre 2010 silver pandas ... in low grades or in capsules
    no scratches, toning, no milk spots


    lets see how many of people turn to me and how much will the price "dead in the water" ones :)
     
  19. mtforpar

    mtforpar Member

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    I just don't see it. Pandas are still selling strong everywhere I look. The 2013 is a whole other story since it is more tied to spot but anything 3 years old is still a hot commodity in my dealings.
     
  20. dccpa

    dccpa Active Member

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    Through a client, I sold a sheet of 2010 pandas on ebay for a little over $47 per coin. Not sure if that means much as panda prices seem to be all over the place. I have 3 more of the sheets that I bought in 2010 and I will probably put them on ebay later this month.
     

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