This is one that I have been watching and it appears undervalued They are a copper miner - and they want to stay a copper miner But they have about 6m ounces of Gold - which provides and natural headge They have a P/E of between 9 - 10 They have a Price/Book ratio of between 1 - 2 They have cash with NO DEBT They yeild above 5% dividend They opperate in 'safe' contries Risks- Managment - in my opinion the past has shown that they can make poor decisions at times Copper price Replacing tonnage of copper (they dont look like every becoming gold focused) - but the possibility of getting more gold/silver with any copper aquisition is good because I believe managment understand how it improves the economics of a copper deposit. outlook - I think they are worth a look for buy and hold mid term - especially under $10 a share Crunch your own numbers
Montgomery Skaffold system sees it as currently selling for more than twice its value. Sees little prospect for earnings growth in FY13, FY14
Have to say though, the chart looks a reasonable prospect of a bottom round here - but if there's some unforeseen bad news that cracks $9 you could see the shares halve to meet the GFC bottom
Based on what? Current resources? Copper fundamentals? Gold Funadamentals? Depletion? You cant just write - "Skaffold says no" and expect anyone to take that seriously Gimme more finicky - tell me on what basis What is the mathmatical formulae definition of 'value' under the skaffold?
We've already been through that. Either you like to hear the up to date valuation that I give from a professional paid source or you don't. Even if you don't I may well add it to a thread you start because someone else might be interested. The dividend of 6% that you mention is historical - FY11. All analysts appear to be seeing a drop in earnings and dividends this year FY12, cf FY11, and not a significant recovery in FY13, FY14 For instance Morningstar consensus is for divs to be 38.7c, 40c, and 41.2c in FYs 12, 13, 14 Whereas the dividend was 60c in FY11 = 6% yield, and it was and probably will be unfranked.
thats all giberish to me - it doesnt make any sense. "all" analysts, morningstar "concensus" - who are the 'all' and morning star is not a concensus - it's one company. Whats today's value for OZL? Is it under valued, fair value or over valued -- TODAY? Therefore all things being equal it should rise or fall to fair value. Im sure skaffold is great but the way you describe it - it just doesnt make sense - why cant you get that from projections from the company? What is their (Skaffold's) forcast for the gold and copper price for the next 5-7 years? Do they use declining values? That would be extremely important to the outcome of a valuation - because Oz Minerals has both - which make up the economics of their deposit. I just dont think Skaffold are a good standard to use with mining shares in a volitile inflationary environment, constant risk of QE-x and global money printing, while comodities are in a bull market especially Gold. - how do you forcast all those variables out to 2014? I think Skaffold value things way too low. either that or im not understanding the method (the later could be more likely)
Fin is there any example of a report you could email me? I really wanna have a look at this and see if i can understand.
Going to cross post this news from another forum. SilverSanchez, just wondering how you view OZL at the moment especially at 7.180?
Howie, it would be better if you tell me what you think. You tell me if you think its a good buy and tell me why you think that.
TBH I haven't been following OZL closely, noted some support at 7.50 but it looks like this floor has been breached recently.. just wondering if there is any reasoning besides weakness overall in the sector. On the surface it looks like a good buy at the moment.
They decided not to pay a dividend... When looking at a stock you need to read everything Financial statements Activities reports
Wasn't on my radar, just happened to noticed their name mentioned on one of the websites I run in relation to the Prominent Hill development. Normally I have all the ASX releases delivered if it's on my watchlist. Thought i'd chime in here since you guys seem to have been into them for a while.
Thats cool, I dont mind giving people what im generally thinking, but that question was quite specific. I like helping people do their own work, thats why i asked what you think - then offered something else to think about. I dont want anyone to say to me that they thought I was recomending something to buy/sell. I only recomend things to think about. Oz Minerals is still undervalued, but if anyone bought when I was thinking of buying - we would all be in the red by now. So Im glad I chose not to open a possition but to strengthen possitions I already have.
