I know, surrounded by economic data and circumstances that scream DAFUQ!!! - and the AUD rises or falls with very little consistent logic. :/ The best I can manage is "current feeling" too. :lol:
This recent slide in the AUD is irritating me immensely - moving the family to America in one month's time! Converting the life savings to a different currency is always a nerve-racking thing to do, given that every cent of movement in the exchange rate makes thousands of dollars difference after conversion. C'mon I just need it to spike back up to the $1.04-$1.05 range once more and I'll pull the trigger. After that the AUD can do what it wants (and it probably should fall back to ~90 cents to relieve some of the pressure on our domestic industry).
The AUD is overvalued... in relation to what? The AUD is overvalued...because local companies can't compete in a global market due to exchange costs? The AUD is overvalued compared to a decade ago? The AUD is overvalued when taken as a representation of Australia's economic health? The AUD is overvalued as a carry trade? This topic can easily be argued in circles forever if we don't have a mutual understanding and context.
I like the "over-valued" dollar. All the stuff I buy from overseas is cheaper now. And having almost a 1:1 ratio to the US dollar makes it so much easier because you aren't having to do the calculations in your head all the time. The magic of a strong currency. You get more bang for your buck. And think how much cheaper gold and silver are now than if you had to pay for them at 80c or 60c to the US dollar. Will it last? Don't know. I expect at the end of the commodity boom there will be a drop, but then, how much will the US dollar have dropped from all the QE in the meantime?
I'd put $9,999.00 of gold coins in every family members purse if I was doing that! But then again the rules about selling more than $600 of gold over there might be a hindrance to my plans.
I'll try To other countries that have a small population reliant on mining and agriculture but are not NZ. Or Mongolia. Or have lots of oil. To other countries that have a manufacturing industry that value adds. To other countries that have a stable political system, operate under a Westminster system and do not have one eternal monsoon season.
Anyone else getting the feeling the AUD is unlikely to drop below parity for a significant time? 6 -12 months? Or is this one of those "current-feeling" emotions I'm experiencing that bordie referred to earlier, kind of like a menstrual currency period?
We're losing the currency wars - so I agree, a strong currency will probably be around for a while yet, particularly while the currencies that we value our own against are being devalued. That's if the status quo is maintained though. If China has an epileptic fit it's a different story.
loosing the currency war would imply we are participating in it. The RBA hasn't really done anything outside of the 'norm'?(lowering rates, adding 7% odd to the money supply).....Selling AUD?
^ in a global economy, we're all participants. Australia has the 4th most traded currency I think (or maybe 5th?), which means we're well and truly a player. We've just got crappy cards and a locally-apathetic strategy
Apathy is great. Wish we had more. But to truly benefit we need as labour and capital market that is as flexible as possible and the friction caused by stupid regulatory intervention is what causes unnecessary self-inflicted angst. Adapting expectations to changed circumstances always has a lag but once they do change then flexibility in the face of the changes is critical. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-20/kohler-productivity-improvements/4583342 http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-473740.html#p473740
