Hi guys, Just wondering whether you think it is a good opportunity to pick up a 1 oz series 2 gold dragon for $1800 right now. The dilemma is Spot is low so that $1800 could be better spent on generic silver or gold. I could pick up 1 oz of pamp for <$1500 and for silver, I could get 2 kilo bars and with $150 bux change. Assuming spot goes up -> The growth in value for the generic will far outweigh the gold dragon If spot goes down -> The dragon will hold on to the majority of the value like with other semi numi coins The flip side is This coin was released during the peak of silver and many bought it for $1900+ No one will be wanting to sell it below that price as many say in here 'You only lose out when you actually sell it' This could be a great opportunity to pick up a coin that went into strong hands. The market for dragons is always very high and it would never drop below that $1800 mark (Unless gold crashes to $1000 possibly) In conclusion, if I am considering whether to purchase this coin, would it be purely based on my thinking of whether spot will go up or not? Or is there more to it? This is just what my thinking is at the moment and would appreciate if experienced stackers out there could provide me with more insight / advice.
When I was a noob, a wise stacker on this forum once told me "buy your semi-numis when price is up, and buy generic and bars when price is down". This advice has served me well. You sound like you have already figured this out, so I would guess it depends how badly you want that coin now, or if you are willing to wait.
Yah, felt I had that feeling when I was writing the post. Writing what you think on paper really breaks it down for you! I guess it all lies down to on what I think spot will do and how quickly it will go up or down. The thing I wanted to also know was whether anyone been seeing how much this has been going for and also the market for this. I remember Digoxin mentioning that 1% of the mintage went to 2 guys. Just thinking this could be a really good opportunity.
I received some advice from LunarDragon and Hem9 in the past in regards to gold lunar, that 1oz is the key size with dragon/tiger the more popular animal compared to others. Hence there is the premium/collectable factor on it. Whether it will rise/fall in the future, its hard to tell. But if say the said premium/collectable factor has been there for awhile, then it is coming from the secondary market too, not just from the mint trying to push it as collectable. If you buy the bars...they are not gonna have the collectable value (unless you are getting vintage or unique serial number)...the only way for it to jump in value is with spot gain. Its all come down to what type of stacker are you, and whether you can risk that premium.
if there is an opportunity to grab it now,do it...if spot goes up,believe me so does the price dragons will be always dragons
another way to prepare is to buy unallocated then await the release of the Horse, horse quite popular too
At $1,800 I dont see much upside potential even if gold goes to say $1,600. If you bought the lowest premium gold you can find at say $1,400 and gold goes to $1,600 you'd make a $200 profit. If you buy the Dragon at $1,800 and gold goes to say $1,600 next week, do you really think you could sell your Dragon for $2,000 (hence a $200 profit) ? I dont think you could, thus my view is, low premium gold is better at this point.
Thanks so much for all the opinions guys. It's interesting to see how everyone have different views based on their investment strategies and portfolio. I will take note of all these points and work out what I believe will be most beneficial to my current position. Cheers!
I see it as supply vs demand. Don't see the dragon come up too often, can't make a set without it. As stated before they cost something like $1850 when released and they sold-out within 24 hrs. High demand. I think I would buy it, if I was in the market. Comparing it to other gold coins not really equal as lunars have a mintage of only 30k and a set limit of 12 . Bottom line If you have a nice little stash of bars and bullion coins, a few semi numismatic coins can be a good investment.
I wouldn't bother unless you are a die hard collector with cash to throw around. If gold were to take another big hit and they still commanded the release price I would happily say goodbye to mine.
Reading the descriptions of the 2014 lunar horse designs (gold and silver), they have the chance to be outstanding coins. My 2002 1oz gold horses are some of my favorite coins. Depending upon what you think gold will do in the next 3+ months, you could buy unallocated gold as Hiho suggested or save fiat. For those of us in the US, swapping AGEs for lunar horses and paying the premium difference is an option and that is what I plan on doing.
