On PM pundits

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Jim4silver, Dec 18, 2015.

  1. Marchas45

    Marchas45 New Member

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    @silverbullion you son of a Gun how are you? Sorry Jim just noticed someone I know well. As for your opinion or lack off with Gartman. This is the first time I've ever disagreed with you.Lol I can't stand the guy, he's a follower of other's opinions and has been wrong many times. Keep Stacking
     
    JOHNLGALT likes this.
  2. silverbullion

    silverbullion New Member

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    I will be damned if it is the famous Charlie. I am doing good and still stacking away. How are you doing my friend? Still going strong? :D
     
  3. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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    Looks like good ole' Gartman has been 100% right on the call he made months ago about gold going up. I know many of the perma-bull PM pundits don't like Gartman because they didn't like when he said PM's would fall years back and they fell. I am more concerned with results than following the dogma preached to us by certain PM sites that use the same handful of pumpers who are almost never right, at least over the past 4 years or so from what I can see. Yet we are expected to believe when they post a headline "this will Shock the financial markets!" or "gold and silver are almost gone on the Comex", etc.

    From my limited watching of pundits and their calls, the only one I have seen more accurate is Jim Rogers. Haters can hate as they say.

    PS I disregard those pundits that make outrageous claims every week, one prediction often contradicting the one from the week before. Then when the pundit finally gets one right he ignores the other 99 wrong calls and says "see, I told ya so".


    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/10/until-this-happens-keep-buying-gold-gartman.html

    Just my opinion.

    Jim
     
  4. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    No. It doesn't matter which way you look at arbitrage, it is all linked back to physical.
    Fair call. Non-participant holders do affect the supply side.
    No.
    No way did I claim COMEX is not a market.
    Read my statement again.
     
  5. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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    It appears that the US Mint is has or is going to end its allocation limits on silver ASEs and that Authorized Purchasers (those few who can buy ASE bullion coins directly from the Mint) can now buy as many as they want (in theory). One pundit (who is involved in the coin business) also says that the authorized purchasers have been dumping their stashes of silver ASEs really cheap lately. Both of these recent developments sound a bit bearish for silver, right? Not in PM bull pundit land it seems.

    This particular pundit is from one of the popular PM bull sites and this guy's explanation is pretty amazing "spin" on how all of the above is bullish for silver and actually means silver is going to go up and that it is not a bearish sign (the Mint's removal of allocation and the dumping of ASEs cheap by authorized purchasers).

    The spin these guys do is pretty amazing. I don't know why I still read/listen to this stuff other than to use as an inverse indicator. I believe that if these authorized purchasers are dumping at cost or below, that means they think the price is going down and want to dump the crap fast. If the Mint is removing allocation that means there are plenty of silver ASEs to go around now and that is at least more bearish than bullish as far as "signs" go in predicting future silver prices. Apparently I am wrong on both of my views per the pundit in the link below.

    PS I would like to hear Goldpelican's view on this one.

    http://www.silverdoctors.com/precio...in-allocation-likely-ending-silver-shortages/

    Just my opinion.

    Jim
     
  6. Rhinosaur

    Rhinosaur Member Silver Stacker

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    There's a lot of misinformation out there. For instance, you might read about a shortage of physical silver...or the impending implosion of the worlds banking system (or the US dollar) which will surely send silver to the stratosphere...

    BULLSHIT

    My take on it is:
    Silver will probably tick along rather slowly. It is a store of wealth and can protect against inflation.
    For me, silver stacking is a hobby.
    At no point should precious metals exceed 10-20% of your portfolio; IMO there are better (cash generating) investments around.
     
  7. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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  8. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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    This guy is perpetuating the story that Comex silver longs seeking delivery are taking "bribes" (I assume he means some kind of premium) to settle in fiat instead of taking delivery. If such were possible, wouldn't all the big money guys find out and instantly have a guaranteed return since they could all stand for delivery over and over then take their "premium"s to settle in cash, then rinse and repeat forever and keep doing that?

    http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/comex-gold-silver-default-july-bill-holter/

    Just my opinion.

    Jim
     
  9. BBQ

    BBQ Member

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    Both.

    Silverdoctors? Propaganda site.
    Kingworld? Propaganda site.
     
  10. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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  11. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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  12. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    They lie, of course. Just looking at their selectivity already proves that.

    I remember the first clear scam I identified shortly after I became aware of their existence: that "Fed Audit", where so called was "discovered" that the Fed did not "print" in 2008 1.2 trillion (the Quantitative Easing I published amount), but 16 trillion.
    Thereby suggesting an inflationary effect about 13 times higher.
    HURRY HURRRRRRRRRYYYYYY BUY GOLD SILVER EVERYTHING WE HAVE IN OUR STORES!!!
    By that time I had already collected quite some central bank data, and I couldn't find any reflection of that 16 trillion, while the QE1 amount clearly was in all balances holding that component.
    So, it was worth checking out that "Official GAO document" where that 16 trillion would be given.

    Well, I found it later on, on the Bernie Sanders site. A PDF, downloaded it, over 100 pages, and after some reading I located the data.
    It turned out to be the total amount of all loans of QE1, but NOT term adjusted.
    That was explicitly mentioned in the title of the section, and their were 2 tables directly following, total not term adjusted, and total term adjusted, with the former pointing to the latter, and it was also explained.
    http://sanders.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/GAO Fed Investigation.pdf
    So there the SilverDoctors & Co trick (selection) revealed itself.
    To illustrate with a short example, summing up all loans over a period of 2 months:

    Loan1ToBank1 1jul-31jul 1000 nuggets > 1000 nuggets x 31 days = 31000 nuggets
    Loan2ToBank1 1aug-31aug 1500 nuggets. > 1500 nuggets x 31 days = 46500 nuggets

    (31000+46500)/62= 1250 nuggets.
    So the term adjusted total is 1250 nuggets.
    While the not adjusted total was 2500 nuggets.
    Inflationary effect, is caused by a term adjusted total.
    Because lol, loans got paid back upon the end of their term.

    Just imagine this:
    Every begin of the years of a century someone lends 1000 nuggets.
    Every end of the years of a century he pays back 1000 nuggets.
    And let's make it a ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy)! :D
    In any given year, this person can only spend 1000 nuggets, and he has to earn (so he adds production) them back in order to pay them back on the end of the year. Or, he could just NOT spend the 1000 nugget loan at all, just holding them, which was mostly the case here.
    The inflationary effect of these loans, measured over the century, is zero.

    Inflationary effect, comes due to other elements that add to this monetary one, typical intrest rate differences.
    For ex, if person X gets a rate of 1%, and person Y has to pay 3%, then the "inflation" benefit of X relative to Y is 2%
    That's why governments always have to pay (thankyouverymuch dearcentralbankbuddies!) a substantial lower % than JoeTheCitizen.
    And why loan interest to pay (so to pocket bank) is always higher than interest received on savings (so from pocket bank).
    This way, a bank can just "reserve" its profit.

    Same way, that 16 trillion adjusted to 1.2 trillion, being indeed the QE1 published amount.

    But SilverDoctors & Co ofc prefer people expecting heaps of false inflation, so that they'd buy gold etc in their stores at much higher prices than they'd been willing without the expectation. Basically, that's the same trick that the Fed used, for the same reason.
    Quantitative "Easing" actually was "Hardening". The Fed started to PAY its member banks to make them NOT lending out their "reserves".
    Due to the ZIRP, it ment going to a negative rate, which would have made the paying instead of receiving a lil too obvious.
    So, the central planners made some changes in the Feds balances / definitions, okay for the law, because apparently they'd already foreseen this ahead of the "public" break out of the crisis in 2008, they had already changed it the year before.

    And the trick succeeded. During subsequent years, plenty savers wasted plenty dollars due to only temporary higher prices of the speculative assets like gold/silver. They attempted to evade a wrongly expected inflation/saving intrest based purchasing power loss.
    Their dollars arrived on the balances of big system banks same time bullion banks.
    Later on, the governments blamed those bullion banks for market rigging, and moved those dollars back to the central planners account, in the form / excuse of Fines. Mission Accomplished Jim. Our new StarFleet dollars won't suffer competition anymore from existing ones! :D

    And some try to chip off some peanuts from the edges of that big cake, with SilverDoctors&Co as 1 example.
     
  13. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Since my story started in 2011, I've seen dozens end game claims.
    Fed and ECB bazooka's.
    Comex stock runouts of commodity (this one numerous times)
    Japan earthquakes
    US government bankruptcy (the "debt ceiling")
    JP Morgan (a dozen stories for this one alone haha)
    Osama Bin Laden kill
    Greece government bankruptcy.
    End of gold / silver price fixing (woohoo prices are gonna breakout)
    Baltic Dry Index collapse (that it was from a peak was outside their chart time selection haha).
    Stockpiles that was claimed of that they didn't exist (alike IShares)
    US Mint running out of blancs (omg shortage hurrrry)
    ...

    About the Shangai Exchange, it was / is actually the opposite of what SD claimed: cooperation not competition.
    That is what they do to battle speculators. Tax "harmonisation". Rules "harmonisation". Exchanges "harmonisation".
    The same happened to the FX markets. A nice cooperation US / EU / China / Russia / ... http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/130721/19133/index3.html just click forwards / backwards, thats how China, Peoples Bank of China, works together.
    Despite all the claims from Zerohedge & Co, that they would fight / compete with eachother. BRICS against US/EU. It was the opposite.
    Zerohedge and SilverDoctors and the rest of that soap scene, all they try is to make people willing to pay more. Concerns, panic, are needed, and that's the reason for the endless doom predictions.
     
  14. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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  15. bron.suchecki

    bron.suchecki Well-Known Member

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    Something I wrote back in 2011
    [​IMG]
    My two dimensions are to what extent does the blog deal in facts or lies including misunderstanding of how things work (the x-axis or What?) and to what extent does the blog attempt to explain and get to the bottom of what is going on compared to just accepting things as they are (the y-axis or Why?).

    The resulting categories are:

    • Truth Seekers: these commit to using facts and try and explain, they might not get it right, but the intention is there.
    • Technical Analysis: just focuses on the facts (price) but doesn't care about the fundamentals or why the price is moving as it does.
    • Tabloid Entertainers: doesn't let the facts get in the way of a good story or clicks and doesn't get too deep as that may over tax the brains of its readers.
    • Propaganda Merchants: conscious misinformation and false explanations to push an agenda and/or clicks.
    So which box does each PM Pundit belong? I'm not touching that one, have enough hating me as it is.
     
  16. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    G'Day Charlie you old son of a gun from DownUnder. Hope you are well.

    I miss your Videos on Silver Doctors. That reminds me I'll have to look up the link I have stashed somewhere. _JOHNLGALT.
    p.s. Come visit us over there, You can LOG IN as a GUEST and post a comment on their new site. After you post, don't forget to click the x to close the box & you will be O.K.
     
  17. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    This is the bloke .... CHARLIE Missing in inaction.
    Anyone seen this budding Silver Millionaire? _JLG.

    Marchas Silver Recliner Report

    CHARLIE Marchas45 Silver Recliner Report.JPG
     

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