Oil - Iran and the USA

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by mrsilverservice, Jun 20, 2019.

  1. mrsilverservice

    mrsilverservice Well-Known Member

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    It has just been reported that Iran has shot down an American drone.

    With 1/3rd of the worlds oil needing to come though the Strait of Hormuz,the Gulf of Tears what next.

    A war with Iran maybe,but one thing is forsure the price of oil is under growing pressure.

    Just imagine that the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by ships sunk by Iran forces,what price petrol :confused: and could Australia have access to the remaining world supply and at what cost.

    If this was to happen the worlds economy would sink in a second.

    Also a retired Israeli General recently said that Israelis next war would be it largest,this would be fought mostly against Iranian proxies being Hezbollah etc etc.

    The world is getting more and more "interesting" by the second while Gold here in Australia is busting upwards to the heavens setting new records.

    Good luck to all mankind :)
     
  2. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Was interesting to watch the habits of motorists last week. 98 fuel up my part of Sydney had come down to 1.44 a litre a couple of weeks back and the usual servos I drive past had modest business flows ie cars at pumps but no waiting. Fast forward to those who watch the news and saw the tanker attacks last week. Drive past the saw servos next day and lines out the servo driveway whilst still 1.44 a litre odd....back to 1.88 a couple of days later and servos much quieter. Kudos to those out there who keep up with current events and how those events can affect your life...cos not everyone wired like that.
     
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  3. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    War in Iran is 100% locked in to a timetable.
    US been self sufficient in oil, it is a great time to disrupt middle eastern oil for the good of USA.
    Which will be good for Australia too.
     
  4. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I disagree....DJT is not a war monger. Yep, DJT rhetoric is hard and threatening ie North Korea and his comment "met with fire and fury like the world has never seen"....and then there was a change in North Korean posture etc.

    I think some in his administration and those in the wider govt will try to encourage DJT into action against Iran but I think DJT won't take the bait. If Iran really started something - an attack on US interests / vessels (not just false flag op by interested parties), then it would be messy but other oil exporting Arab states would either line up with the US or remain neutral given the financial impact on them if Iran starts something. Also, not sure DJT would commit the US to military action if non US assets / interests were targeted by Iran.

    When the tankers were hit the other week, I thought of how the Vietnam war for the US started in earnest. If you have the time, watch "The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara" https://archive.org/details/TheFogOfWarElevenLessonsFromTheLifeOfRobertS.Mcnamara

    The below link is the piece on the Gulf of Tonkin incident. Some call it a mistake, some a false flag op to justify the US going to war in Vietnam.


     
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  5. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    How will the disruption of middle eastern oil be good for Australia? Does Australia produces its own oil? I don’t think it is the interest of anyone to disrupt ME oil supplies other than of course Iran and Russia.
     
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  6. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Iran shot at an US drone last week.
    Today Iran was successfully shot down an US drone.
    This drone is a size of gulfstream Jet.

    US will retaliate like for like
     
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  7. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Australia is the largest supplier of LNG in the world.
     
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  8. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Earlier, Tehran said its air defenses had shot down a US RQ-4 Global Hawk reconnaissance drone overnight, after it illegally entered Iranian airspace over southern Iran.
    It had turned off all its identifying equipment in violation of aviation rules and was moving in full secrecy.



    https://ejmagnier.com/2019/06/16/th...-cH4o88Nz5IU_gqB6zahZXUezhAcWzDs-4dZPc8TeTwKI

    A wider war will be very destructive to Iran but equally devastating for many countries in the Middle East. Iran’s allies say they are ready for war. In Lebanon, the Leader of Hezbollah Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah told his political officials and his militarycommanders last month (despite multiple denials) that war this summer is highly likely. This was also the assessment of the IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani who told his partners that Iran won’t agree to live under harsh sanctions. Sayyed Nasrallah warned this month that “entire region will burn if the US goes to war against Iran”, leading to “all US forces and interests in the region being annihilated”. In Iraq, several Iraqi groups vow to oust the several thousands of US troops from the country. These are well experienced fighters and equipped with cruise precision missiles that will more than likely be used to hit the different US bases spread over the country in case of war on Iran. In Yemen, Houthis have already used a precision cruise missile, hitting Abha Saudi airport and, last month, used an armed drone to hit an oil station in the Saudi province of Yanbu.

    All this shows that Iran is ready to burn the Middle East if it is prevented from exporting its oil. Trump must now be aware of this eventuality and that the sanctions he has implemented will lead either to war or at best to the insecurity of energy shipping from the Gulf to the rest of the world.

    Trump is in no position to venture into war at a time when he is about to start his electoral campaign for re-election. The bodies of US soldiers returning home in plastic bags would become the historical legacy of the Trump era.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2019
  9. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Trump will retaliate using tweeter. o_O

    Trump to ME Command:
    Damn you! You screwed my $130m drone! I'm not gona pay for it. Now pull out all the drones and ships. Just tell American merchant ships not to go near the Straits of Homuz. Let the Iranians screw the other country ships.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2019
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  10. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Bolton and Hawks will engineer an appropriate “response” which is in reality designed so that Iran must retaliate.

    Than if Trump balks or stalls at a massive targeted strike, few leaks to his base about weak trump and some far right clippings about trumps lack of manhood....

    We will be at war.
     
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  11. mrsilverservice

    mrsilverservice Well-Known Member

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    I just saw Potus say he "honestly thinks" the shooting down of that drone was a mistake,he said only a dope would do that (Iran)

    War with Iran not yet :)
     
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  12. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It’s turning out exactly as I wrote above your post.

    I hope not
     
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  13. Gullintanni

    Gullintanni Well-Known Member

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    Trumps language with the downed drone is identical to the language he used with the DPRK.
    Sure they did it but as POTUS said it was "probably just a general that ordered it"

    Pretty smart wording by Trump in that he acknowledged the downed drone but put the responsibility on a General instead of the big bosses.
    Leaves everyone plenty of outs.
    As a small side point has anyone seen the interview he gave on live TV after the 9/11 attacks?
    Going through some of this stuff the other day and for the first time ever i read about the dancing Israeli's.
    Here was me thinking Saudi Arabia was the cause of 9/11 and turns out there is a very real chance it was in fact Israel that committing the worst terrorist attack on USA soil in history.
    That being the case then we can definitely expect something more heinous to occur than a few limpit mines on ships.
    Im still not rushing out to buy gold though .
     
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  14. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  15. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Trump won’t engage Iran militarily because it costs money. Cruise missiles are expensive. It’s throwing money into the drain.

    The response would probably be even more sanctions. And this time round, the EU would have to support him because no one wants a military escalation.

    And best of all, Iran offered the video evidence. :D
     
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2019
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  16. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Whilst the US acknowledged it was their drone, was it unidentified as noted in prior post, was it in int'l or Iranian air space, who was controlling it from the Us side, who ordered the shoot down on the Iranian side????? Such matters need to be clear to avoid a "Gulf of Tonkin" repeat.

    I also see how this could play out.

    If war:

    1) Trump keeps the sanctions and more...plus Twitter rhetoric as per DPRK policy in 2017/18. Iran attacks more oil tankers and other int'l assets.
    2) As noted in a prior post, the major oil and gas exporting nations of the Gulf will stay neutral or support the US as it's in their financial interests to do so.
    3) The lesser oil producing nations (if majority Shi'a) may support Iran with troops / weapons etc.
    4) If Iran did attack and gave the US a basis for war against Iran, yep it would be messy and costly (for all countries) and the Hamas controlled (Iranian funded) Gaza Strip would probably attack Israel giving Israel the opportunity to push Hamas into the ocean and take back Gaza.....Even Hamas would see they would get the short end of the stick on that.
    5) Whilst bloody and costly, I still see the US winning in Iran as their generals / Admirals are now allowed to fight a war the way they want to and should, as opposed to politicians directing the fight.

    Iran becomes another Iraq, Iran's leaders escape or are captured etc and the US is left trying to hold the place together as various factions fight / out maneuver for position etc.


    If no war...
    1) Trump is a businessman and deal do'er. He unlike his DC contemporaries / swamp creatures know there are two sides to a balance sheet and war is a costly expense. If Trump can do a deal where everyone wins, then that's great but it's going hurt somewhat those in power in Iran.
    2) If there was war with Iran, yep likely it'll be turned into a burnt cinder and many innocent Iranians will probably die and those in power will lose their "comfortable life" or maybe their life...inc the Iranian Generals.

    Thus I can see as the war of words and sanctions heat up, the Iranian General's will know they are on a hiding to nothing if they go to war with the US (ie lose status, power and money) thus I can see them mounting a coup against the cleric's who run the country and then pick up the phone to DJT to do the deal.

    Time will telll....
     
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  17. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Trump won’t engage Iran, it’s all for show. Even the sanctions are for show. If I’m not wrong, US ships and aircraft will be withdrawn away from Iran.

    If I were Trump I would do this.
     
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  18. Davros10

    Davros10 Active Member Silver Stacker

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  19. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  20. Peter

    Peter Well-Known Member

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    Trumps a maniac who endangers us all.
     
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