Can anyone tell me why people are ignoring this one? Is it their ability to replace ounces? They seem undervalued and realy ignored allong with Eldorado Gold
Looks like the same disease that Allied Gold Mining and Eldorado Gold are suffering from - incidently they are all companies who contry of origin is not australia. Dont know if that is the reason but it is a pattern I see.
Yes thank you for quoting my answer back to me Im still trying to find the reason for all of those guys.... coz it could be an oppertunity. Especially Oceana and Eldorado - allied gold is crap imho
The Roger Montgomery Skaffold valuation program is saying OGC is way overpriced. You have to go out to FY14 to get an actual intrinsic value equal to the current price and even then there would be no 'margin of safety'. Skaffold rates it as a B3 stock with current actual intrinsic value (based on FY11 earnings performance) of 59c forecast to drop to 47c in FY12. By FY14 it sees it worth $2.50. Just looking at the chart, in my experience it's not much acting like a basing chart yet, fit to rise. Just my sense of it.
Is that just looking at cash flow? Or is that taking thevalues of what they own and monetising it at current prices?
I can't claim to understand the Skaffold program well. I just subscribed 2 days ago - $1,330. It does not 'monetize' assets, even less assets in the ground, I do know that. It takes into account past and forecast cashflows I believe, but the core of the Montgomery system as I understand it is the Return on Equity (ROE) - or net profit after tax (NPAT) divided by Equity; How much that Equity amounts to (basically capital from share issuance + accumulated retained profits); Whether that Equity has been growing historically and is forecast to continue growing; and how exposed to debt the business is. To be valued at all a company must reasonably be forecast to have earnings within a 3 year time frame and probably to have recent past earnings as well (not sure about the latter point). The core I think is earnings quality and predictability - historical and forecast. By the way, Kingsgate (KCN) which I hold, is rated B4 (B for quality, 4 for performance which is low) and valued at $5.96, $12.55, $13.28 on forecast earnings for FY12, FY13, and FY14. Someone sticking to the Montgomery system would never buy KCN unless it fell to a margin of safety below those prices. Bit of a problem though, especially for resources stocks, because a star performer like Iluka (ILU) would never have been buyable under the Skaffold system if focusing on the current intrinsic value (i.e. the year of the last financial report, which is currently FY11). In fact only this year would it have been buyable even by focusing one year ahead. So buying now would miss all the share price appreciation that has happened for ILU. Actual current intrinsic value for ILU is $12.91 for FY11 but the forecasted value for the year of FY12 has risen to $45.71. The only time when the share price has been at a discount to the near year forecasted value.
Janine Cox, technical analyst at Wealth Within, has a different view of Oceana Gold (OGC). In fact when given 60 secs to promote a stock of interest on 'Your Money Your Call' (Sky Business Channel) she chose OGC. She admits to being into gold and gold stocks, and said in effect that she'd wait to buy OGC if it breaks above 2.60
I made my first-ever share purchase on February 25, dropping $5k on OGC. You might call it beginner's luck, but I made a calculated decision that the miners are either at or near a bottom and OGC is the only gold producer listed on the NZX (I only want to play on the NZX, for now at least). My bid price was a slightly cheeky NZ$2.70 and the price started creeping away from me almost immediately. It was funny, but after I placed my order I was watching the charts like a hawk and was umming and arring whether I should increase my bid so I could get my foot in the door. I decided not to and kind of figured my order wouldn't get filled, then completely forgot about it. A few days later I found two emails in my inbox showing that my order had been filled in two transactions. It turned out this little announcement had caused the price to drop. It briefly bottomed at NZ$2.60 but there was tiny volume at that price, so I essentially bought the bottom of the dip. Today we had this announcement and OGC closed today at NZ$3.22, so I'm up 19%. I'm wishing I'd bought more (of course!) but this was only ever intended to be play money (and wanting some exposure to a miner) and I'm well aware of the risks of buying mining shares (that first announcement was a perfect example of how this could turn to shit) and sleep better at night knowing I'm mostly in physical. It's exciting watching the price creep up though and it will get plenty more exciting once the gold price starts heading up again.
Good effort and the chart might have broken the downtrend in effect since Oct 2012 - too hard to call yet. Downtrend still in control if price closes below 2.25 imo. Wouldn't be surprised at a small pullback before it decides if it really wants to break out - just guessing. If you're interested in a professional valuation please pm me and for a small fee I'll rate it. No, hilarity aside, the Skaffold system rates OGC poorly as C4 based on FY 2012 which is not investment worthy unless there is a confident turnaround ahead. There are quite of lot of analysts feeding in their earnings estimates for FYs 13, 14, and 15 though, and bit of a warning, their estimates are wildly varying: Financial Year: 13 14 15 No of analysts: 10 10 9 range of eps estimates in cents: 23-50 23-81 22-84 Intrinsic Valuation: 2.37 3.37 2.71
On the plus side, their Didipio mine will be one of the top two lowest cost gold mines in the world in 2013.
You were saying? LOL. All I can do is laugh at myself. Should have sold when I was up 26% but I'm not a trader.
$1.80 is the area of support confirmed on the monthly chart. As you can see the $1.80 area has been broken a number of times, and the price more often then not rebounds. If OGC does not rebound at its current level in the $1.60s in the next few days I would say that $1.80 support level is broken and that area will become a point of resistance... and OGC would likely trend towards $1.20
3 month chart, but this is the highest volume traded in a year. This on a day where a few gold stocks mysteriously reversed intraday, e.g NCM. [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_ncm_dec_20.gif][/imgz]
OGC had hired a president and he got the company and its stock going very well. They fired him after about a year and the stock has been a huge underperformer ever since. I saw most of my gains disappear after the changeover and cashed out while I still had a profit. Would love to buy back some day, but they need better management.
$3.30 today so far, omg that's about a double in 6 months during a gold bear market. A couple of days ago it closed only about 12% off its all time highs. I think this is one of the best looking charts among the ASX gold producers, and wondering if it doesn't conform to a completed reverse head and shoulders pattern stretching from Dec 2012 to June 2014 at which time it broke above neckline at 2.75 with a couple of monster moves on firm volume (weekly)
