now waiting for platinum

Discussion in 'Platinum' started by finicky, Feb 17, 2013.

  1. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Is now the time for buying? I've decided no. After listening to the inspiring Rick Rule audio linked by Ronnie 666 I was eager to dip in again.
    http://www.kereport.com/2013/02/14/rick-rule-market-commentary/

    But no, I figure the sentiment inferred from the chart is ST or medium term bearish. Long term I'm probably as bullish as anyone, but Platinum's giving the appearance this week of failing at a level near the other recent peaks in price - circa $1740

    So I'm waiting for possible prices of US$1600 or even $1550 before handing over coin and premium for platinum again. I'm not expecting the dip to take more than a month. I will reconsider if there is a price recovery for a close over $1740

    As part of my take - last week was a bearish candle: Opened lower then prior candle's close, closed lower than prior candle's open. Lower low, lower high. All at a point where the breakout was being tried and confidence should show.

    Anyone differ?

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Good call but I started buying now. Not a lot but a nibble. We will see what happens over the next week. Tomorrow trading is closed in the US but Asia is open?

    Why I say that is not based on any technical analysis as I dropped my crystal ball. I think that we are as likely to see a bounce from this level as a further decline. If prices go up, I do nothing and I am ahead, if they fall I buy more. I cant pick the bottom, most PM buyers cant.

    What I do know is that the Pt miners are not making money at this price. If a further correction occurs in the paper price, I will not be shocked to see more mine/shaft closures.
     
  3. Lunardragon

    Lunardragon Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I doubt if it can break 1750. If everyone predicting we gonna have another crash, we may see 1400 level. At this level, it will be my first entry Pt PM.
     
  4. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Came close to buying a couple of ozs today, but then I changed my mind and bought some gold instead. You know why? I hadn't checked the Plat:Gold ratio chart for a few days. It was pointed out to me that Platinum is still gaining on gold, so I looked, and it is! Even with these lurches lower this week measured in dollars, Platinum is still rising in terms of gold
     
  5. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Dude you missed the time for buying platinum when you were bitching about gold an gold mining shares back in 2011/12... why would you get in at the top of a run?
     
  6. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You're a man who knows god, I'm just floundering around
     
  7. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Well just grab yourself a Bible and start reading, I suggest the Gospel of John, then john's letters then revelation, then the whole bible from the start all the way through.
     
  8. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Mineweb.com

    SA platinum: an industry in crisis
    23 hours ago
    Sasha Planting
    Industry executives and trade unions had been summoned to Parliament by the committee which was concerned by the stories of job losses and mothballing of assets.

    After one too many questions from Parliament's mineral resources committee on what the mining industry was doing to resolve issues in impoverished mining communities, executives from SA's platinum industry spelt out in no uncertain terms the state of the platinum industry.

    Industry executives and trade unions had been summoned to Parliament by the committee which was concerned by the stories of job losses and mothballing of assets.

    "This is an industry in crisis," says Amplats CEO Chris Griffith. Without exception, the past three years has seen every platinum company in SA go back to its shareholders to raise money. Anglo Platinum raised R12m in 2010; Lonmin plc raised R7.2bn last year and Impala asked shareholders for R4.5bn last week.

    "Shareholders have been putting money in, not taking it out and this will be the case for the next couple of years," he said.

    Mining input costs are rising at twice the inflation rate, with electricity, steel, stores and labour costing the industry an extra R28bn between 2006 and 2011, a 200% increase, said Roger Baxter, Chamber of Mines' senior executive for economics and strategy. His presentation detailed the issues confronting the industry.

    While costs are rising, demand plummeted as the industrial demand for catalytic converters had fallen by 9% per year for the last five years. While demand for platinum jewellery had helped offset this it was not enough to absorb the excess supply of platinum in the market. "Supply continues to exceed demand," says Baxter.

    Buyers of platinum are increasingly switching away from platinum and rhodium into palladium causing SA to lose 15% of its market share. While SA produces 50% of the world's platinum and 27% of its rhodium, it produces just 2% of its palladium.

    Last year's strikes, committee members were told, simply compounded an already untenable situation. At Amplats, the biggest platinum producer in the world, 80% of its operations were loss making last year. Without the strike 30% to 40% of its operations would have been loss making. "In 2012 59% of the platinum sector was in a marginal or loss making position," says Baxter.

    As a result the industry is being forced to restructure its operations to align the individual businesses with a change in market demand and to restore profitability.

    However the mines say they have not lost sight of their social obligations in a time when margins and profits have declined. Last year the industry invested R500m in community projects. It also paid R30bn in salaries and wages and the five largest companies paid the government R7.3bn in tax.

    "We cannot control the poverty and lack of jobs. We are acutely aware of the difficulties people without jobs face," says Impala Platinum's group executive for people, Johan Theron. "We acknowledge our responsibility. What we have also recognised is that with better co-ordination with government and other social partners can all get better value for our money."

    With a minimum of 14 000 jobs on the line, mineral resources committee chairman Frederick Gona was not impressed with these numbers. He asked how confident Amplats was that the current round of negotiations with government and labour would yield positive results. "I'm not confident at all Chair," was Griffiths blunt response. "This is not about people working harder to find a solution we spent the better part of last year going through all the possible options. Perhaps there are things that government or the SARB can do, but us alone as a company, we have done all the easier stuff. I'm being honest, but I think that is important."

    NUM regional co-ordinator Madoda Sambathe was horrified. "This is a major concern - that an employer can have that attitude ahead of a 60 day negotiating period. I need to communicate this."

    Behind the rhetoric there is a considerable amount of work taking place, much of it co-ordinated by the ministers of Labour and Mineral Resources. The issues being addressed include restoring stability to the sector, re-establishing negotiating platforms for labour, addressing violence and intimidation and how to collectively address the social issues facing miners. "We need to engage, engage, engage," says Baxter. "That means bringing new unions like Amcu on board too."
     
  9. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just to update my actions here fwiw. The price did get down to a little below US$1600 last night but recovered intraday to form an irregular big hammer candle. Taking that with the last couple of nights' results and I'm thinking there's a chance that it could be a retrace that has finished and might be ready to rally again?

    Anyway I jumped the gun, and on Sunday/Monday bought 1 oz from G'Stackers and 1 oz from member ajzm here. If I'm wrong I'll add a bit more at around 1550 (US$). Still punting that Pt is slated to push through US$1,740 medium term

    [​IMG]
     
  10. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Wasn't to be with the call above ^^^ but I'm still bullish and bought 2 x 1/2 oz Pt Koalas from Brashy7 here on Sunday, and another 1 oz Pt Platypus from G'Stkers on Monday. Last night plotted another bullish daily candle (called 'bullish engulfing') with daily momentum indicators right down where you should see a bounce at least. Need a weekly result to feel more confident about a low but I still believe it's close if not already in.
     
  11. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  12. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Not feeling tempted enough to add, but if its going to reverse I reckon it'll have to be soon. I didn't think a weekly close below 1550 would be likely but could happen now.
    Holders will be hoping for 1525 area to provide support. If that goes, a return to the bottom of the giant range is now conceivable to me. That is, back to 1400 - 1375

    The promising aspects of the chart I'm seeing are the still positive diverging indicators over a period of a month or so. The indicators are also down low and ready for a bounce if the price really is consolidating, but unfortunately not so low if its really in the middle of a decline.
    The shorter 50 day moving average is still well above the longer ma. The price is now near the prior lows.

    Waiting for a telling weekly candle or two

    Daily 2 year chart

    [​IMG]
     
  13. gcsun

    gcsun New Member Silver Stacker

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    Where is Plat going in the next 12-24 months? Keen to buy some pending predictions...
     
  14. Asylum

    Asylum New Member

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    Hi Finicky, out of interest do you think that Plat will follow gold down with the scaremongering from Goldman Sachs or are they not linked like Gold and Silver?

    I don't know much about Plat or Palladium so it is a newbie question I'm afraid.
     
  15. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi - if gold and silver are worked down I'm sure that platinum will go down too. They're all linked and some say that platinum is a leading indicator. Meaning it can make significant reversals before gold or silver - I've never verified that for myself but do keep an eye on platinum for hints about gold.
    If platinum gets too expensive relative to gold, discretionary buyers will be drawn to favour gold buying and vice versa. Central banks buy gold and industry buys more platinum (relative to supply) but gold and platinum have enough in common for each to influence the other in the market. That's what I believe anyway.
     
  16. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Russia did released a lot of pd. SA released a lot of pt.

    it can take years to built up their reserves again
     
  17. Asylum

    Asylum New Member

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    Much appreciated.
     
  18. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi Asylum
    Read some of Rick Rule's recent posts on Pt and Pd. Like Ag (unlike Au) there is very little above ground supply and production is tiny (about 5mill oz/yr). When you compare to gold (85 mill oz) or Ag (1billion oz) you see the difference. SA is the largest producer and production is falling each year - mainly due to labour problems, political issues and costs. This year down 400,000 oz. Russian production has also fallen due to mine exhaustion. Small stockpiles expected to be depleted this year. You can't build new cars without Pt and Pd and trucks or diesel locos and in the US, generators. So one day soon, Honda,Toyota, Nissan or Great Wall will order some Pt and Pd for cat-converters and there will be none for delivery. That day the price will double. In my view (and I wear very thick specs - short sighted) Pt and Pd is Ag on steroids.
    If you believe that 500,000,000 Asians (Chinese, Indians and others) will soon be driving cars and you need 1/5 oz of Pt per car where are you going to find a Bill oz of Pt. For Pd it is worse.

    For all these reasons I believe you must have a small % of Pt and ?Pd in your stack. Pd is more difficult because of the GST issue in Aus.
    Rule has just bought $280Million of Pt and Pd.
    That is the basic story.
    Cheers
     
  19. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I agree with Ronnie 666.

    Having said that, imo there is a very good chance of a correction in stockmarkets worldwide and if that happens we "could" see a similar situation to the GFC of 2008.
    A decent market correction could drag down platinum which would present a very good buying opportunity but at the same time, the metal could be difficult to aquire, however for the average bloke, I think you'd still be able to pick up enough platinum for your stack.

    In my view, platinum, for a short term investment, is a fine balancing act between availability at the mine face, recycling and demand for vehicles.

    Having a few ounces in your portfolio, right now, could be a good move for those investors who have the cash-flow and will not be affected (need to sell) in the short term.

    To me, platinum could be a spectacular short to mid term play or a long-term hold.

    H
     
  20. Asylum

    Asylum New Member

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    Thanks so much Ronnie, Holdfast. It sounds like the info I've come across is sound based on your info and views which hopefully means I'm not as much of a momo as I thought :)

    I have to say I can see PMs absorbing a lot of my assets at least in terms of time and energy because the further I delve into them the more interesting it all becomes.

    Plus every time I watch the Iron man films I start wanting Palladium again ;)

    I guess its as always 'go with your gut' in terms of when to buy. Right now if prices drop for any of the major PMs I am happy.

    I love this forum.
     

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