Full year results are out Monday, including revised outlook forecasts. As long as there aren't any new nasty surprises, the bottom should be in, and the price should be back above $30 by October.
Most prospective I've seen the chart since the start of the downtrend, Quarterly Hammer candle shaping up down around an area of support, but don't see how you can conclude it is the bottom rather than an intermediate low yet
Why are you using a three monthly chart? Your chart is showing me that the last time it was this sold off was when Gold broke $600 an ounce. Its the bottom (IMHO). I dont know any reason why Gold miners would be quarterly driven and not gold spot price driven. I could understand a more stable business (with less volitile prices on clothing etc) like harvey norman, or whatever retail stock you wanna chose, but I dont think mining stocks play by the same rules. I think your chart is way too long period wise, I would suggest a monthly chart at most (not that im an expert). I chose these moving averages as a guide 30 (ex and simple moving average), 65 sma, 100 sma, 165sma and 200 sma. I chose those because the stocks seem to respond to these on either weekly or monthly chart - have a look see what you think. Here is a link to a comparison between the Gold etf (representing the Gold price % moves), the XGD gold producer's index and our stock in question NCM. Given the gold producers are always tied to the gold price to some degree, I dont see them going lower unless Gold takes a dive. If gold holds its line, the stocks will come to it, either under performing the index or over but same trend... ie. up
They produced less gold in most of their operations didn't they? They said most of the earnings improvement was driven by a higher gold price. Labour, energy, and other costs up. And they don't seem to be predicting significantly higher gold ozs FY13. Political problems could occur anytime PNG. Nice numbers
I was interested in the small franking credit with the dividend. An increasing franking credit as well as an increasing dividend would be great to see.
23 cps with 15% franking previously they havent franked As i said above - great numbers, and I like the future potential, share price has snuck up from 20.XX
Market has ignored recent bad news of conveyor belt issues - broke through $28, not bad.... might see a bit of a pull back but looks good so far.
Newcrest have been spruiking themselves lately. Another article here talking up the chances of increased dividends. If they keep increasing the dividend and the franking credit I'll see them less as a swing trade and more as an accumulate. http://www.smh.com.au/business/newcrest-flags-dividend-growth-on-output-rise-20121025-28845.html
Wish I saved my money @25.5 but oh well it was only $1500 worth. Bounced off $22 - but I could see this stock heading back to $21ish and has some risk if copper breaks downwards. Also dunno where the litigation over part of the Cadia property is going. If you're thinking about buying in - I might carefully consider holding off until things are a bit more certain regarding cadia.
In my opinion, better waiting for the Dec quarterly due late this week? The chart is approaching what I would expect to be resistance @ almost $24
If you look at the XGD and a selection of the major gold miners they are all at resistance levels and have gotten there on low volumes - meaning the likelyhood of sellers moving in at the restance levels is somewhat likely considering the metals dont look like breaking out here. Im still bullish on all the mid - large cap Australian gold/silver miners - but the strength required in volume is not there yet to break through (IMHO) - I was 50/50 about buying today but ill wait untill there is more confirmation in the volume that a break out is on Looking at the NCM chart overlyed with the KCN chart they look like they are walking in step somewhat... So given KCN selling off (if it closes under 4.97) I have to assume NCM will also come down a little from here.
I am not a charting pro but to me it looks like the NCM price low 10 january at $21.53 looked like divergence with RSI.. (the way i have set up my charts. It has also popped up through the downtrend at 17 january at $22.88. heading for resistance at about $23.67. A definite bottom is not on the chart but if it sets up above $24 comes back to test $24 and move up from there it looks positive to me.
that was a strong turn around after an initial sell off today following the qtr release. A move over $24 would again recover from the failure there last june. edit granma and spelking
Yeah the report seemed quite possitive, upon a quik glance. But i think the rise co-incided with the asx200 rising.
