Newcrest Mining (NCM)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by SilverSanchez, Mar 8, 2012.

  1. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Guys, you may like to investigate the chances of NCM being a takeover target.

    NCM has some very good assets that if managed correctly could do very well.

    If the share price drops lower and the price of spot lingers at the current or lower levels it may be under pressure from some of the majors.

    As Australia's worst performing gold miner NCM board have huge challengers ahead...personally I don't think they have the skill-set to pull NCM out of the shite.

    If the AUD vs USD exchange rate stays favourable this could also add to a takeover.

    DYODD

    I don't own NCM but have many moons ago.

    H
     
  2. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ................. warned the group was likely to write another $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion off the value of its assets.

    The write down again expected to be mostly on the troublesome Lihir project in Papua New Guinea comes on top of $6 billion in impairments announced a year ago.

    Shares in the Melbourne-based company tumbled 6.2 per cent on the revelation, wiping more than $500 million from its market value.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/busines...000680203?nk=61b69917c19ad92457f79c49a474f590


    Newcrest Official Announcement

    While no decision has been made, the Board considers it likely that its review will indicate an impairment of the carrying value of assets in the range of A$1.5 billion to A$2.5 billion after tax, primarily in relation to Lihir but also at Telfer and Bonikro.

    http://www.newcrest.com.au/investors/market-releases/expected-asset-impairment
     
  3. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    hmm. that kind of news makes me salivate..
    gold down to $1000 and ncm hit with bad news...
    the perfect storm...buy, buy, buy
     
  4. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If they didn't have Lihir, they'd be pretty interesting with the low all in sustaining costs quoted for their other mines. Will be an interesting chart to watch - I almost added the monthly chart to the 'gold stocks that might have bottomed' thread a few days ago. Say they could have more write-downs ahead?
     
  5. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    SHARE CAFE DAILY
    Newcrest Surprises With New Writedowns, Losses

    BY GLENN DYER - 25/07/2014


    Newcrest Mining (NCM) shares took a hammering yesterday as the country's biggest gold miner revealed a surprising second multi-billion dollar writedown in nearly 13-months.

    The shares lost 6.1% to end at $10.79, with the losses growing during the day as investors gloomily examined the update and writedowns.

    The news followed the controversial announcement on June 6, 2013 of around $6.23 billion in write downs and losses.

    Newcrest said yesterday it hadn't finished figuring out the final figures of the losses, but indicated they would be between $1.5 and $2.5 billion.

    Once again, the pain for Newcrest investors is led by its Lihir (PNG), Telfer (Australia) and Bonikro (Africa) gold mining assets.

    Lihir is the most problematic.

    In the 2013 writedowns, $3.6 billion involved Lihir and its goodwill (the difference Newcrest paid in 2011 in its $9.2 billion takeover over the actual value of the assets acquired), while there was a further $2.2 billion in goodwill associated with the Bonkiro mine also written off.


    Newcrest said yesterday that operating cost assumptions were being revised at Lihir, after running the plant expansion there for a full year.

    Lihir was supposed to be another large, low cost gold mine to complement Newcrest's flagship Cadia mine in NSW.

    But Lihir continues to be plagued with operational troubles and is now shaping up as a large, higher cost operation, with lower profitability than previously thought.

    And the higher than expected value of the Australian dollar is making times tougher and has forced a review of book values, with Newcrest previously operating under a long-term assumption that the currency would be worth around 80 USc.

    It was trading well over 94 USc yesterday, and with no sign of falling back under the 90c level, where it was for a while in 2013.

    In yesterday's statement, Newcrest stressed that the work on book values was not complete, and the final size of the impairments was uncertain.

    "The board considers it likely that its review will indicate an impairment of the carrying value of assets in the range of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion after tax," the miner said in a statement.

    The company hinted that it could offset some of the write downs by revaluations of other mining assets.

    "There are other assets within the Newcrest portfolio that the Board believes have a market value much greater than their carrying value, including Cadia Valley, Gosowong and Wafi Golpu," the company said yesterday.

    The write downs could increase Newcrest's debt ratio by as much as 6%, meaning the company will have to assure its banks.

    Although an impairment has no impact on cash flow, a reduction in book values in the range of A$1.5 billion to A$2.5 billion is estimated to adversely impact gearing by approximately 3% to 6%.

    Under current market and operating conditions, the Board remains comfortable with gearing being at this level in the short to medium term given the near term cash flow growth outlook of the Group.

    The debt ratio was already hovering around 30% this year and the miner wants that ratio to be closer to 15% in coming years.

    That will need some serious funding raising or asset disposals.

    Newcrest started the year with a promise to produce between 2 million and 2.3 million ounces of gold; an amount that most analysts thought was very conservative.

    In recent months the company has told the market to expect a result toward the higher end of that range.

    Gold production guidance for the 2015 financial year has already been published, and Newcrest expects to produce a similar amount to this year - between 2.2 million and 2.4 million ounces.

    In the production report yesterday the company said June quarter gold production was 636,736 ounces (85,146 ounces or 15% higher than the March 2014 quarter).

    Copper production for the quarter was 22,871 tonnes (1,859 tonnes or 9% higher than the March 2014 quarter).

    For the full year, gold production was 2,396,023 ounces (a 14% increase on 2,109,784 ounces in the 2013 financial year) and copper production was 86,118 tonnes (a 7% increase on 80,366 tonnes in the 2013 financial year).

    And the company said its All-In Sustaining Cost of $A976/oz ($US897 an ounce) of gold fell 24% from 2013.

    http://www.sharecafe.com.au/sharecafe.asp?a=AV&ai=30989
     
  6. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm.....my cunning plan has more holes in it than the Bismarck.
    The aussie dollar pullback is offsetting the gold price pullback.
    I was hoping NCM would fall back to the $5 mark on a gold price of about $1000............It seems to be strong at $10
    I do know that share price can reflect what is coming down the pipe so I now wonder if those holding have already factored in such a fall and are prepared to hold for the inevitable rise.
    NCM is one of the few gold stocks that could cope with a drop to $1000 and below. Maybe too many investors realise this.
     
  7. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Newcrest Mining's flagship Cadia precinct is starting to hit its straps, with recent expansions allowing the New South Wales operation to reach a new low in terms of operating costs.

    *Cadia operated at an "all-in sustaining cost" of $US192 per ounce during the three months to September 30.

    *Fall in the Australian dollar helped the equation, it is the first time in the past five quarters that a Newcrest mine produced at a cost below $US200 per ounce

    *A big part of Cadia's low cost results is the amount of copper that is produced alongside the gold.

    *Newcrest "NEW" managing director Sandeep Biswas welcomed the performance at Cadia.

    *All of Newcrest's mines were profitable in the September quarter.

    * 561,731 ounces of gold at an overall all-in cost of $A864 per ounce.

    *Production levels were lower than the previous quarter because of previously advised shutdowns at the Lihir mine

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/m...s-lid-on-operating-costs-20141021-1194wq.html
     
  8. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Newcrest's executive pay scheme.

    While most companies are reining in rewards to the board, Newcrest one of the worst performers on the sharemarket this year with a $2.2 billion statutory loss received a first strike for a pay scheme that gave its executives 68 per cent of their short-term bonuses. :rolleyes:

    On top of this was a $2.3 million guaranteed base pay for new chief executive Sandeep Biswas that was bigger than the base salaries of Rio Tinto chief executive Sam Walsh and BHP boss Andrew Mackenzie. :rolleyes:

    The remuneration report was rejected by 45 per cent of the company's voting shareholders.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...sts-executive-pay-scheme-20141031-11erd0.html


    NCM is down 4.51%

    Price is $9.32

    http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=NCM
     
  9. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Couldn't say NCM is a buy until it gets below $6 - and even then its not really a long term hold
    This company is just not really updating their management strategy - they are just playing musical chairs
     
  10. Stick Framer

    Stick Framer New Member

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    I got some last time at $7 and sold out around $11 before the re test
    Question is will 7 be the low or will it be 6?
     
  11. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Cant predict a price, but I think the stocks will bottom before gold does, usually happens that way.
     
  12. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

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    $4.60 anyone :p
     
  13. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  14. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    NEWCREST Mining has flagged it could sell one of Australia's biggest gold mines as it slashes the cost base at the operation.

    Newcrest highlighted that it believed the attractiveness of investment options under review for Telfer had increased, given costs at the mine had fallen from $1103 an ounce to $867 an ounce and on the back of a stronger gold price.

    In the six months to December 31, Newcrest posted a net profit of $200 million, a 400 per cent increase on the $40m profit recorded in the previous corresponding period.

    Debt has continued to mount, though, with net debt standing at $4.29bn at December 31, compared with $3.94bn in mid-2014.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...mid-flat-revenue/story-fn91vch7-1227218144282

    Telfer page 15 of this pdf
    http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150213/pdf/42wl3hv1fb7cj0.pdf
     
  15. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  16. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  17. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

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    everything is breaking out. I bought some more of these a couple of days ago.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

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    consolidating as well.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  20. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

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    After consolidating in a narrow range for a couple of weeks ncm has been trying to break out the last couple of days. Having a good go again today.
     

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