2015 is meant to be a tough year for the coal industry. I suspect that any contract miner or service industry will do it tough unless they strip their ops of any fat.
Yes I am very interested in this company however it is worrying how they are flaunting the $680 million contract for the INPEX LNG plant in darwin. Having worked for a company that had workers contracted out there let me warn it is very easy for the companies running these kinds of projects to end up making losses as the wages and everything is so goddam expensive. Paying people $35 an hour to sweep the floor and paying qualified tradesman $50 an hour plus full penalty rates + travel allowances ect can chew up that profit margin very quickly if the project is delayed or something major goes wrong and needs to be re-done ect. MND only has one other major contract coming up so I don't really know what I'm saying but I'm not buying yet lol
The daily chart shows bounce off 11.65 by a hammer candlestick but will this grow into a significant low on the weekly and monthly charts?
STILL going down - maybe $9 area now before reassessing? Equals height of consolidation pattern subtracted from $15 support level. That's the only idea I've got except fairly confident of lower. Really the only substantial level of support left is GFC level of ~$6! November Monthly price looks like it could close outside Bollinger band which I use now as a signal to step back until it's well back within. MONTHLY Bollinger [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_mnd_mthly_nov_14.gif][/imgz]
So that's $10 floorboards splintering today. Big gaping hole there. Daily scale bounce anytime and overdue, but I'm seeing $8 as fairly likely now and chance of ~$6 GFC level firming by the day. A quick rough calc said GFC correction was ~70% from the 2007 high, this correction ~65% so far from the 2013 high.
Anyone who bought in at the start of that and didn't bail at the first $14-$15 peak (or before that) would have been mad.
Current price intraday $8.85 Went ex dividend today. Dividend was 0.46 fully franked, but price at late morning is down 0.93 and has been down as much as 1.03 Monthly chart still looking pretty sick to me, unless that high positive volume month of February is critical. February candle was engulfing = positive, sometimes signals reversal ... would need a monthly close above $10 to be showing persisting strength I feel. MND Decade Monthly [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_mnd_mthly_mar_2015.gif][/imgz]
Rallying hard on daily scale. Maybe I was wrong, $10 intraday break. The other day I was also struck by the present monthly chart low 'shape' and that of the major 2008/09 LOW - see monthly chart in prior post. Back in 2008/09 the monthly price fell outside the volatility bands too, only to gradually recover from there and commence a 4 year bull market. A chance this is the real LOW for MND happening? 6 mth daily [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_mnd_6_mths_dly.gif][/imgz]
love the speeding ticket and the "company is not aware of any information" response. Either the company is lying or there are going to be some very sorry day traders very soon. Not the sort of action you expect from a mining services company in this environment
But to value investors, its intrinsic value is quite good. Low debt, free cash flow, peg <1, margin safety high >70%... Etc... , only its tangible asset is not what im looking for. Still we cant predict the future, if the mining and oil are down, they have to seek another sectors to survive.
Has it bottomed? This is the decade quarterly (i.e. 3 month per bar). Exceptionally high positive volume on previous 'candlestick', which could be finding confirmation with this June quarter candlestick?
June quarter (Apr-May-June) did not confirm the higher close on record volume for the March quarter (Jan-Feb-Mar) This September quarter (July-Aug-Sept) just continued the downtrend to where this historically great engineering and mine servicing company is today probing the $6 low zone of the gfc. Worth a watch?
Made it down to a very strong level of prior support - $6 - being the GFC low Cant believe even there couldnt bite the bullet and buy a few Bounced from there while due a nice dividend Has made some nice capital gain from low Has made a higher low, higher high on weekly chart, but no trend yet on the monthly chart. Now $8 looks important to get past.
