Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by Bullion Baron, Dec 12, 2017.

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Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  1. Very early (years left to run)

    21.1%
  2. Around the middle (could still run for months or a year)

    38.0%
  3. Very late (could end within days/weeks)

    23.9%
  4. It's not a bubble

    16.9%
  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Various asset classes and their price history. I can't think of any other assets, I don't think I've missed any.

    Screen Shot 2022-05-10 at 8.05.31 am.png Screen Shot 2022-05-10 at 8.07.50 am.png Screen Shot 2022-05-10 at 8.14.58 am.png Screen Shot 2022-05-10 at 8.15.57 am.png

    In all examples, there are periods of no real growth. That's the reality of investing.
     
  2. Polar.bear.Stacker

    Polar.bear.Stacker Well-Known Member

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    There goes LUNA down 40%+ in a day. Me stupid for buying for a Celsius promo. Should've shorted it instead
     
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  3. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    lol luna short is printing, its a bet on do kwon stupidity for selling 1.5bil of bitcoin to keep ust peg.
     
  4. Polar.bear.Stacker

    Polar.bear.Stacker Well-Known Member

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    Did you short it? Smart man, these algo stables can really print both ways.
    I'm just looking at UST peg, it's at 0.7. IMHO it means Luna is finished. They'll have to unload their BTC to defend the peg.
    Time to buy their BTC at a discount
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2022
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  5. pastey

    pastey Member

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    totally bombed at ~ -20% across the board. You can peg on PAXG. But i had no crypto to worry about ;). BTC IMO is showing volatility unseen before. remember it crashed form 60k to 40k now dropping to below 30k? People thought buying at 35k was the dip? Look again. Crazy. Gold is dropping in USD but stable with AUD since its down on the USD. Didn't some dude say crypto was a bubble..isn't it wonderful when you don't have any crypto to worry about for once :D
     
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  6. Polar.bear.Stacker

    Polar.bear.Stacker Well-Known Member

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    Technically not true. But yes, I'm happy to buy it when people lose faith in it. No different to how people buy houses or gold because they don't have faith in their fiat ;)
     
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  7. pastey

    pastey Member

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    No different to buying gold or houses...ok.
     
  8. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This volatility is orders of magnitude less than the early days of BTC cycles. Since it's gone mainstream this is the first time 'most' people have seen it. And if it follows the same trajectory it will be orders of magnitude less volatile as time goes on and eventually gain a seat at the table along side gold etc.
     
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  9. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    yeah i did from $60 to $30 but out now. looks like the peg is recovering but traders love volatility. they already unloaded a load of btc, not sure how much they have left.
     
  10. PMCollector

    PMCollector Well-Known Member

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    Looks like peg will be restored, nice bounces... dunno if out of the woods yet, but fk me, that was crazy. i didn't buy any dip yet but didn't liquidate anything.
     
  11. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    If you look at Bitcoin's chart, the shapes are a bit similar to previous "relief" shapes - no, this is not technical analysis, just mere logical looking at previous "humps".
    Look at the heights in 2018 and how low it then went in percentage terms... Then look at where Bitcoin is now (2021-2022).

    By looking at the proportions of the previous highs and corrections (how deep that particular correction in 2019 went...), it can indeed go down to 10 k or even below 10 k to the 6-7 k range.

    I think Bitcoin might continue to trade sideways for months or, even next year and could drop <10 k even. The charts reflect this volatility.

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. precious roar

    precious roar Active Member

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    ^^ I agree with your penultimate sentence. Messy until next year for btc.
     
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  13. pastey

    pastey Member

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    Yep it was floating around 10-11k for a good year...then the hype train. It's always after it bombs and takes everyone by surprise. Let's not forget the alt coins LTC, BCH haven't shown signs of recovery. BTC did because people (as alluded to in this thread) see it as a potentially having a seat at the "table along side gold etc."
    Problem is gold isn't even 10k an ounce! BTC comes in like a fat c**t taking up too many chairs...has to lose loose more weight before it gets that invite to the party imo.
    ALT coins? plebs.
     
  14. pastey

    pastey Member

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    Let's not forget that "BTC IS GOING TO 200K BY THE END OF THE YEAR 2021 says some dude with a twitter post that went viral." - it didn't. Nice bit of social engineering to get plebs to jump on the pump and suck them dry on the dump. 200k who fell for that? Then boom there goes 40%...smh
    Luckily I stopped reading news.bitcoin.com...full of crap and hype.
     
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  15. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Even the mighty Bitcoin is susceptible to market cycles like everything else.
     
  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    FRAX maintained its peg.

    Screen Shot 2022-05-11 at 6.48.10 am.png

    UST is based on an outdated version of FRAX.
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2022
  17. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    I wonder how Bitcoin is doing on that logarhythmic growth graph? It shows oscillations, but eventually the dips are supposed to be compensated with the upward trend.

    To me it looks like it is going down after two massive pumps (those two major humps on the graph), the rest is just a series of bounces.
     
  18. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    yeah nah, big fight for ust to retain 30c now. hit ust and luna on high leverage short once it broke 60c. the end of this will get ugly, top post on reddit luna is for suicide help line.
     
  19. solved

    solved Member

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  20. hardyakkagold

    hardyakkagold Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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