Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by Bullion Baron, Dec 12, 2017.

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Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  1. Very early (years left to run)

    21.1%
  2. Around the middle (could still run for months or a year)

    38.0%
  3. Very late (could end within days/weeks)

    23.9%
  4. It's not a bubble

    16.9%
  1. Soprano16

    Soprano16 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Common thought is that Craig Wright, Roger and Jihan are dumping their massive amounts of BTC in this stupid bch dick waving contest

    Alts are pegged to BTC, people see BTC dump and alts follow
     
  2. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If anyone does believe that, then they should question how small and manipulated the crypto market is in order for a few people to have such a massive impact on the entire market.

    If not, then it's just the market correcting as markets normally do.
     
  3. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hopefully they have diversified their crypto assets to protect from downside risk.... oh :(
     
  4. Soprano16

    Soprano16 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This isn't just 'a few people'

    These are some of the biggest whales, and we all know how manipulated this market is

    When a market goes sideways for so long than in an instant dumps as big as this I don't think that's a correction - it's manipulation
     
  5. inmizu

    inmizu Active Member

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    I am happy to read and learn. So many factors!

    'Alts are pegged to BTC, people see BTC dump and alts follow' -- not 'pegged' (but yeh, sorta 'lock-step-ish'!) What happens is traders dump alts to get Bitcoin to cash out with. Very few altcoins, except a couple of the biggies, got fiat-crypto pairs with good volume.

    Would like to hear insights into how folks with bullion and perhaps cryptos choose to cash out, at considerable loss, when things get suddenly ugly, because notwithstanding the losses, bullion (and cryptos?) can be sacrificed for precious $$$. I have heard about this. And it seemed to explain some stuff that I hadn't comprehended.
     
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  6. inmizu

    inmizu Active Member

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  7. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    mmm....shiney! likes this.
  8. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    What happens when bitcoin loses hashpower?

    Currently or recently a massive amount of hash power was unilaterally leased to mine ABC or SV, this increase in hashpower was artificial because most miners would not have been mining at the losses without being compensated.

    Pure conjecture, but I bet that ABC and SV lease deal meant the miners kept the coins and miners was compensated on top for electrify etc.

    What does the miner do if they were mining the wrong version... sell the coins
    What does the market do... watch the tanking prices of SV and to some extents ABC
    Contagion spreads
    Fires sale starts

    Humans have herd mentality and that mentality usually mean 1 + 1 = panic

    Even if miners didn’t keep the coins but was passed to the consortium, what do people do on the losing side, HODL the coins or dump them before the rest of the market.
    Or does Craig Wright swallow the losses in the sprit of Satoshi
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2018
  9. inmizu

    inmizu Active Member

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    '5 minutes ago
    (Edited)


    In Asset Class, there is the word ASSET. What ASSET do you get when you buy a crypto ? None.

    Therefore it's not a new Asset Class, it's a fantasy, a hope, a mental projection, a scam at best.

    So I am 100% sure they will go back in 2019 to their intrinsic value, which is Zero.

    Just jump out of the boat before the other investors, next year, it will be too late.



    [​IMG]

    7 minutes ago
    This is a dorky article which explains nothing.

    The price of Bitcoin is being pounded into the sand because the crypto currencies is a giant threat to the financial system. Most people have no idea why but for anyone who actually tries to learn how it works and how fiat currencies actually work it will be obvious. Bitcoin has been attacked ever since Mt.Gox was created but has survived all of them because there is nothing that can stop a superior idea whose time has come.'

    And here you have it! (Comments of the article) It's-a-scam guy, and the comment I'd go with. It's-a-scam-guy just nevva changes his toon!!
     
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  10. inmizu

    inmizu Active Member

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    'Currently or recently a massive amount of hash power was unilaterally leased to mine ABC or SV' I am behind the curve on this, but what ipv is outlining is just all too believable.

    The ABC/SV thang is indeed a major influence at this second, yes.
     
  11. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I once loved to read all about the splits/forks. Now i feel out of the loop as I'm over it all, to much politics/scammers. I just need enough Bitcoin or Litecoin to make some specific payments every now and then, so don't really care about any other crypto anymore.

    At least everyone agrees this market is highly manipulated/speculative, so very hard to know it's true value. Maybe it doesn't even have the value i thought it has at around $100B MK, maybe that's just my bias thinking that and it might drop much lower. I hope not though.
     
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  12. inmizu

    inmizu Active Member

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    'I once loved to read all about the splits/forks. Now i feel out of the loop as I'm over it all, to much politics/scammers. I just need enough Bitcoin or Litecoin to make some specific payments every now and then, so don't really care about any other crypto anymore.;

    Even those of us who spend all day every day on the Planet, leo, agree with you on this one.

    What we've noticed -- with 10,000 'cryptos' now launched -- is that we've settled into our respective niches, and work to maintain familiarity. So, if you read back over all my notes, you'd see I'm a long time 'rare and established POW crypto' enthusiast. It's probably three years since I bought into an ICO.
     
  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Or failing that, deleted all their posts to protect their reputation.
     
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  14. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    wanna buy some iota?
     
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  15. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I liked this quote spotted on Twitter the other day, it really does encapsulate most of what crypto is (politics):

    "Cryptocurrency is just politics enhanced through technology. Nothing more. When you truly understand and appreciate this fact, everything makes much more sense."
    https://twitter.com/CobraBitcoin/status/1064266034146959360
     
  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Politics is the science of administration and a decentralised political system the most effective system for enhancing liberty.

    This was the philosophical basis behind Satoshi’s et al interest in bringing crypto to the people.
     
  17. Gullintanni

    Gullintanni Well-Known Member

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    Well a few hours ago MK for all coins was 180billion and as i look now it is 145billion.
    If that is not a problem then i do not know what one is>>>>
     
  18. Gullintanni

    Gullintanni Well-Known Member

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    Where is the original post from this thread?
    Has bullion barron actually gone and deleted all of his crypto stuff because it was so wrong?
    If this is the case then BB has serious issues and should be formally disgraced.
     
  19. SlyGuy

    SlyGuy Active Member

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    Everyone who bought crypto will be suffering enough pain as it continues to dwindle. There is no need to try to "disgrace" anyone.

    I'm still amazed at how many fairly conservative metals investors seemed to gravitate to crypto. I have always viewed crypto (no history, unstable, digital) and gold (long history, stable, secure physical holding) as different as can be.
    It seemed that barely any of the metals experts took the bait, but many, many individuals sure did. I would have guessed that most gold/silver bugs would have viewed cryptos somewhere between Schiff (total junk, based on nothing, will go to basically zero) and Rickards (interesting tech but still developing, not investment worthy, watch and wait). I guess some things are too glittery to avoid, though.

    ...I just hope some people, esp members here, can salvage a bit, learn the lesson, and move on. It seems from general logic and the article below that many crypto investors were young Millenial types of people - many already in debt - who could least afford to lose in the first place. That sucks. I know I learned my lesson very young betting oil and gold futures. After short gains, I lost a lot even faster. I learned that any "shortcut" is very risky... and usually doomed. I'm absolutely a better investor today because of that experience, though.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dimon-warren-buffett-last-120017236.html

    The really interesting thing for me will be to see if the crypto demise gets some money back into the gold/silver markets or general equities markets... or if the people will just go looking for the next too-good-to-be-true shiny thing to "invest" in? That is one minor similarity between the gold and crypto: they're both viewed as fairly anti-establishment type of things which tend to be popular with anti-government and anti-bank types of people. Time will tell.
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2018
    Ag and leo25 like this.
  20. Gullintanni

    Gullintanni Well-Known Member

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    Sorry but i have to strongly disagree.
    BB put himself out there and created blogs and had opinions that people followed.
    Now that as he has said "the bull market is over " instead of just stopping he has been making efforts to erase all of his wrong opinions and that just makes me think he will be back at some stage and try to do the whole thing over again without people calling out his past.

    The only reason to erase the past is in anticipation of a rebirth and not wanting the shackles from past mistakes or as is the case with metals and crypto YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUCK AS MANY NEWCOMERS IN.
    No excuses in my book and those that disagree with me that is fine but i know some people will agree as they will understand the point i am making.
     
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