Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

^ a couple more days left yet in the week before we see what that candle says

 

I reckon with altcoins in the main stay away from them, but if you have to buy some then don't value them in fiat but in BTC as this takes into account the opportunity cost of not buying BTC.

Based on a little process I do the DOGE/BTC price sees it tickling the bottom of a buy zone:



Note that the RSI also confirms that. But determining whether it's a buy at all comes down to fundamentals, unless you want to risk trading.

 

Using the same process for XRP, we see it as being above the "buy zone":

 

Polymarket has a DOGE etf approval at 66%, apparently there's an 81% chance that the SEC will approve a shitcoin XRF etf. I'd like to think that there's more chance of a DOGE one than an XRP.

 

BTC finished the week off in the wedge after starting last Monday in the red and just below it. We're not likely to see much price action today due to the President's Day holiday as most trading in BTC occurs when the NYSE is open. There's still a few weeks to go before we arrive at the pointy end, but I guess anything can happen between now and then.

For now looking for a monthly close above $96,449.06 as that was November's figure and the highest monthly closing low of 2024. Next would be above $102,405.03 which was set in January this year.

 

Bob Loukas is of the opinion that there's 1 week to go in the cycle:



So we could see the price break out of that triangle sooner than later.

 

I've annotated the 19b-4 column to reflect recent changes for both XRP (bluh) and DOGE, not sure if that would affect the odds:

 

So tweaking the DOGE/BTC chart:



Worth keeping an eye on I reckon.

 

Starting the week by dropping out of the triangle down to support.



In the last 12 months the 2 previous consolidation phases lasted 6 months and 8 months. If that repeats we could see it trading sideways until about July, with a bull run that still fits into the Q4 2025 timeframe give or take a month.

 

Interesting, the weekly pattern that we saw on the last run (pale red) seems to be playing out - 3 highs interspersed with 3 lower lows. Then pop? The pale blue pattern has not been invalidated. Yet.

 

The Crypto Summit could amount to nothing.

 

So the outcome is:

1. BTC and alts are viewed and treated differently.
2. BTC currently held will be used to establish a BTC strategic reserve.
3. The Secretaries of Treasury and Commerce are to investigate strategies that will allow the government to add more BTC on a cost neutral basis.
4. A stockpile of non-BTC digital assets (shitcoins) will be established.
5. All currently seized shitcoins will be used to establish the stockpile.
6. The government will not make any further purchases of shitcoins and may investigate ways to sell them.

So BTC gets locked up into a reserve as an asset of value, everything else gets tossed in the thunderbox.

Edited for a correction

 

If it did hit 60 then could be heading into the next BTC winter so I'd be waiting.

Things to look for I guess would be whether the price falls through the strong level of support around 70K. We're getting closer to the point in time (when measured by how many days before the next halving) where price action peaks however we're still 200 odd days away from that which suggests this dance has some time to play out and the price action this cycle has been fairly tame when compared to previous ones. Current realised value is around 43K so if it did break through 70K but didn't hold 60K then the 43K would test the resolve of HODlers and we could see it dive to 30K.

I'm leaning toward the scenario where higher price action is yet to play out, then we may see a correction something similar to the above. Of course any move higher would set new levels of support and higher realised values so you'd have to take a dynamic approach in assessing the market and not lock in values eg 70K, 60K, 43K and 30K as if they are certain. Also if that were to happen it would play out over a few of years so there'd be no rush.

In summary, for now if you're not exposed either sit out or buy in on the expectation of higher prices. Alternatively if you're of the opinion that the market has peaked then I'd wait until some of the indicators I've pointed out get ticked off and do something else with your money in the meantime.