Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by Bullion Baron, Dec 12, 2017.

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Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  1. Very early (years left to run)

    21.0%
  2. Around the middle (could still run for months or a year)

    37.8%
  3. Very late (could end within days/weeks)

    23.8%
  4. It's not a bubble

    17.5%
  1. Golden ChipMunk

    Golden ChipMunk Well-Known Member

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    Agree but this is not the end, there are more.
    Cost of cooling like AC when the room get heated up.
    A mini server tower would cost something like $20K. if start from scratch.

    Here why many of this miners locate in colder country.
    There is no guarantee; one can mine the BTC out after invested in mining.
    The earlier days are much easy. The cost of power consumption in western countries also very high even to run the nodes or being a validator.
    For instance, I heard the validator get paid like $3Kusd / month on one of the site in coins; then the coins fluctuate and decrease overtime.
    The values may sound high but not enough as the machine also may need maintenance and replacement over time.
     
  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    The issue it seems is that some are conflating mining with validating. Now miners help secure the network but they need validators to confirm transactions. Some miners act as validators as well, but there are thousands more validator nodes than mining.

    Running a node doesn't mean someone is going to mine BTC. This is why BTC is the most decentralised network, anyone can add computational power in order to do their bit to enhance the security of the network for very little cost. You don't need an ASIC miner to run a node. You don't need air conditioning. You don't need access to cheap power. Something not everyone can do with a POS network.

    It's akin to voting. BTC is democratic, every one can vote regardless of how much BTC they hold. POS systems are like a situation where only landholders are allowed to vote in a Council election.

    There are lots of good POS networks out there, but from a monetary good and investment perspective BTC shits over every other crypto token. I think this gets the anti-BTC crowd a bit salty at times. :D
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2025
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  3. pmbug

    pmbug Well-Known Member

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    Last time I will weigh in on this. Shiney, you are trying to draw a meaningless distinction.
    https://www.coindesk.com/learn/what-is-a-51-attack

    The concentration of mining hashrate is the important issue for Bitcoin's network security. As already mentioned, there are mining whales that control significant portions of BTC's mining hashrate presently. The BTC maxi mantra about security is exceedingly myopic. I'm not saying BTC is unsecure. I'm saying that it's not necessarily that much better than modern POS systems. The Astrarizon link I shared in post #3000 has a nice writeup in section 4 that talks about EGLD's security model with adaptive state sharding. Very cool stuff!
     
  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    The distinction is far from meaningless as mining and validating are distinct functions in the BTC network, while they are not in a POS network.

    Except that it's proven to work. When Ghash exceeded the 50% limit miners quit the pool, the price of BTC fell, Ghash ceased operations because it became unprofitable and ten years later BTC is about USD95000.
     
  5. Davros10

    Davros10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    With the level of detail you guys are getting into, maybe it's time to set up Crypto Stackers?
     
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  6. Davros10

    Davros10 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    As a proponent of Elliott Wave Theory, I can see a potentially interesting upcoming situation. A whole bunch of coins seem to be in synch, Pepe, Bonk, XRP, Gala to name a few, and could hit a HUGELY significant low in the next couple of weeks that would then lead to a historically significant (moonlike?) jump. For example Bonk may increase 12-1400%. The potentially interesting part is that this timing could CO-INCIDE with Trump's inauguration, leading the Fundamental analysts to avow that OBVIOUSLY the rally is a result of rather than a coinciding event.
     
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  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    36:53, includes a chat about coincidences.

     
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  8. IPDA

    IPDA Active Member

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    Funny video:

     
  9. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Bang! And straight through resistance. Blue sky now.

    BTCUSD_2025-01-20_17-19-46.png

    Edit to add: those resistance levels were drawn on the weekly chart, this is the daily so it looks a little "off".
     
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  10. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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  12. pmbug

    pmbug Well-Known Member

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    USA going to create a "digital asset stockpile" (sec 4.c.ii)

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/presiden...n-leadership-in-digital-financial-technology/
     
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  13. IPDA

    IPDA Active Member

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    (ii) promoting and protecting the sovereignty of the United States dollar, including through actions to promote the development and growth of lawful and legitimate dollar-backed stablecoins worldwide;


    congrats crypto bros, you’re unintentionally making all of us have less freedom with our money.
     
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Didn't you read all of it?
     
  15. IPDA

    IPDA Active Member

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    I did not, I should have definitely read the full thing before jumping the gun there :D:p.

    The key takeaways I got from it was that
    • (ii) promoting and protecting the sovereignty of the United States dollar, including through actions to promote the development and growth of lawful and legitimate dollar-backed stablecoins worldwide;
    &
    • (v) taking measures to protect Americans from the risks of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which threaten the stability of the financial system, individual privacy, and the sovereignty of the United States, including by prohibiting the establishment, issuance, circulation, and use of a CBDC within the jurisdiction of the United States.
    Sort of conflict with each other, I guess the difference would be a stable-coin is operated privately and without government overreach, whereas a CBDC would be?

    The other thing that I found interesting was how vague this is. I was hearing certainty from the crypto crowd of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, but from the citation below it definitely doesn't sound like a 100% thing. I don't know if the stock pile is seperate to the Bitcoin reserve, maybe they are.
    • (ii) The Working Group shall evaluate the potential creation and maintenance of a national digital asset stockpile and propose criteria for establishing such a stockpile, potentially derived from cryptocurrencies lawfully seized by the Federal Government through its law enforcement efforts.
    The other thing that is surprising is how much proposed regulations are potentially going to be added into the crypto space. From my understanding, was crypto not meant to be entirely outside of the system? If regulation was the goal then this is fantastic for the crypto space.
     
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  16. precious roar

    precious roar Active Member

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    Regulation wasn't the goal but ironically, without it the crypto sphere would remain a cult.
     
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  17. Real $ Return

    Real $ Return Well-Known Member

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    Ive looked into BTC and some of the alternatives but due to scepticism...and ignorance i distrust it. Whole idea gives me pause and cautious/paranoia? takes over. An unknown entity creates a new type of asset from thin air and we all have the opportunity or did to buy? Something that benefits US the people and not those who guide the reins? A pure minded principle in a world of sickening corruption n skewed rules. I like Gold...at times blinded by it in the past and why not? Its a beautiful thing sometimes one track mind pays off. After being screwed over by third parties and scumbag super fund "handling" my $ i'd like to believe in this but also want to hold it safe away from scumbag parasites and 3rd party exchanges. WE are the only ones with our own interests at heart. Raving aside like to know what drives such deep resolve and belief in this digital Coin, in short years its smashed silver cap and achieved almost mainstream adoption its achieved amazing things hodl have been greatly rewarded. If time and inclination please explain why it moves and motivates you so and why belief in holders is almost like a religion, i'd like to believe in something this supposed digital alternative to gold
     
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  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    eg institutional investors that may be currently restricted by their charter as to whether they can buy BTC or even a spot ETF, they may only be allowed to by a company for example.

    The talk, expectations and hope is for the introduction of new regulations that relax some of these restrictions.

    The worry is what a more relaxed regulatory landscape could entail for average investors.
     
  19. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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  20. pmbug

    pmbug Well-Known Member

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    Stablecoin supply is limited by growth of underlying assets that back the coins. They are not fiat constructions where supply can be inflated at will (at least, not if they are honest).

    CBDCs are fiat constructions that are not backed by any underlying assets. Central banks can manipulate supply as they wish.

    The stablecoins that currently exist do not employ virtual machine programming systems or smart contracts AFAIK. CBDCs were being designed to mimic the features that exist in major crypto blockchains including programmability (which makes it easy for central banks to control who, what, how, where and why with respect to transactions).

    Stablecoins <> CBDCs
     
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