I see that CME has ask for 26% maintenance margin increase on everthing they handle, should be a fun Monday. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-g...s-maintenance-margin-equal-initial-everything
Bix weir is seeing this as the beginning of the end of silver price suppression: "Zerohedge.com just posted some startling news. The CME has upped margin requirements to 100% ensuring the total destruction of all small and medium sized participants come Monday morning." Monday will be interesting Indeed! Mick
If margins are increased to 100% Monday should see see silver price plummet as investors sell their paper silver to cover margins. This will not be reflected in physical price though in my opinion Mick
Could be a great time to load up if it falls below $30. Only problem is finding someone who has bars for sale. Scorp
Bix Wier mischaracterized what the CME announced. They are not raising margins to 100% of contract value. They are raising the maintenance margins to equal initial margins. It is still likely to force a lot of margin call liquidations though - especially given the 50,000+ accounts transfered from MF Global to other brokers were already short of margin requirements and facing put up or liquidate pressure over next week as it was. I hope my local dealers will still be selling their inventory of physical PMs when the spot/futures get monkey hammered on Monday.
Next week could be a bloodbath..Silver may well go to $20...A lot of small to medium trade paper long traders will be forced to sell and some may even go bankrupt. But the sun will still rise in the East. For a small period of time it will be a buyers market but then silver will rise and keep rising. There have been reports on SS of JP Morgan reducing their short exposure and going long..Just imagine how much fiat they will make if silver goes to $50 for the third and final time.. They all have their noses in the trough so when they have made enough will they kindly bugg.. off . Any way thats my take on the matter for what its worth. I will be watching this thread with interest to see how other SS view the situation if what is stated in Post 1 is correct and at this stage it looks pretty genuine. A silver tsunami..Hold your nerve, the days of manipulation in PM'S will be a part of history once the tsunami has passed. Regards Errol 43
Yes Bix has posted clarification on the mis interpretation For clarity...The COMEX change is raising the maintenance margin to 100% of the initial spec margin. The effect according to Zerohedge.com... "Which means that by close of business Monday, millions of options and futures holders will be forced to deposit billions in additional capital to the CME just so they are not found to be margin deficient, and thus receive a margin call. Naturally, since it is very unlikely that this incremental amount of liquidity can be easily procured in one business day, we anticipate the issuance of hundreds of thousands of margin calls Monday, followed by forced liquidations of margin accounts across America... and the world." You know what that will most likely mean for silver...ANOTHER MASSIVE SILVER SLAM! The ONLY institutions that can make these kind of margin deposits without selling off assets are the big banks. VOILA...massive long silver liquidations. On a brighter note, it is likely the LAST silver slam we will have to ride out...EVER! This is the END GAME of 40 years of computer price manipulation. Expect it to get a little crazy. Bix Weir www.RoadtoRoota.com
I cant see Silver going to $20 though. High $20's maybe at the worst. I'm thinking more like $30- $31. We will see soon enough. Scorp
From Dan Norcini ... this is the first time that I can recall seeing something like this occuring. It will also precipitate some very volatile trading conditions. I suspect this is tied directly to the fallout from the MF Global debacle. Apparently CME group and its clearinghouse want to make sure there is sufficient liquidity present to cover all its obligations. This might throw my previous assessment of silver and gold technical action out of the window. Stay tuned as this is going to get even more wild than I previously imagined. http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.co...d-max=2011-12-01T00:00:00-08:00&max-results=6
Not sure. Wasn't long ago we were at $26 and that was nothing compared to the potential here. Markets are already as nervy as they have been since 2008 on the Euro debacle. Certainly not inconceivable we get to low $20's at least. If anyone could get out over the weekend and know for sure they could get hold of physical next week would they feel it a wise move?
What i don't get is if your maintenance margin has to equal to your interest then the CME is effectively saying they are no longer offering leverage on products which begs the question what's the point of futures contracts? i'm not sure if i'm interpreting this correctly. This is basically covering CME totally as the client needs to have 100% of the initial investment in some form cash/shares whatever they can liquidate to cover the margin. This is totally eliminating CME's risk and should force allot of selling and i don't believe panic selling simply selling because who carry's 100% of the position value in cash? why use leverage in that case
I have no idea what effect it will have - so often the market seems to react in ways that seem counter-intuitive to me :/ Given that more than a few traders will probably be madly cashing in whatever they can to meet their obligations I'll be very surprised if the metals don't take a big hit though. I'm considering some short term trading in EPTMAG if it does tank early next week - yeah I know I know it's paper yagiida yaggida etc etc (actually it's zero's and ones on the computer not even paper!) Should any funds I put towards that little experiment not magically dissapear in a puff of smoke I'll use the profits (if any) towards some more Ag or Au as it would be money for jam. If i do lose it I won't be too stressed as it's the devils money (won from gambling on the cup) :lol:
JPM will love a big drop, they have all the shorts they need to drop in the next few months with new reg's coming in, nice little coincidence.
Well there are clearly deals being done behind the scenes as we speak - yet another round of basement bargains - but this time likely to be more Sino-centric - Reuters article on the vultures circling: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/05/us-mfglobal-asia-idUSTRE7A40RJ20111105 At least one positive thing perhaps to occur after this is that those with their ears to the iron horse rail will be best placed to profit from any big dip on Mon-Tues - I call $29.38 by Monday 3pm Ozzie time... VRS x
Bart Chilton on how MFG 'shouldn't have happened' - Didn't he say the exact same thing about the Bear Sterns collapse in ref to JPM's snafu of silver short postns @ CFTC meet on Oct 18th?!?!?! How weird?!?! http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...Global_Disaster_Should_Not_Have_Happened.html VRS x
I don't see $26 myself given the Masters of the Universe only have a couple of ten-thou short contracts left in place and they've been adding to their physical ag pile up to 2.41 million oz at prices up to $33-34, aside from all the metal they bought over $40... things being what they are though I know they'll be making shedloads o'moolah whichever way the CME coin flips nxt week... VRS x
