Mike Maloney has called the top - get ready for BAU?

Is he correct or is he being an alarmist ready to sell something?

Personally and after some painful lessons, I reckon these guys (Steve Keen, Max Keiser, Mike Maloney, Chris Martenson, the Daily Reckoning crew, et. al.) need to promote themselves to maintain the value of their own stock. While they speak a lot of fundamental sense, they really never account for the commitment of the powers-that-be to just up and change the rules completely to keep control. It is only when the money powers want to let things collapse will there be a collapse and until then its BAU.

...or is it?

 

It's the top until some magic policy turns it into a rally, heh.

Peter Schiff / Gerald Celente say the same thing:
"I had it right!! But I would never of thought they could do QE"
"I had it right!! But I never would have thought they would go to -ve interest rates, they're crazier than I thought!"

They are basically betting on a lack of policy, or a lack of effectiveness. They could be right, but the policy makers might have another scheme.

 

The problem is they are using the jargon of economist but really are just selling PM
So think of them not as advisers but as salespeople, don't think of them as reporters either.

A financial reporter reports on assets as well, but the usually aren't spruiking one or two item alone.
How much credibility would you give a reporter or adviser that only spoke about BHP and RIO shares ignoring everything else and having most of the wealth tidied to this stock and was a salesperson for those share?

 

It's the push comes to shove moment, when the inevitable becomes the imminent. I think he's called it right but the time frame is rubbery enough to weasel the correct call when we look back.

 

Having said what I said, I think they will be right to a degree sometime in the future.

However I dont think it will be Mad Max style SHTF that they make up, like gold at $whatever and silver at $10,000 an ounce.

It is likely to be generic SHFT like the GFC, maybe worse for Aussies and even if we were to suffer worse than Greece (which I dont think is possible) the economy will survive and order will be restored.

I am sure we have members who bought PM cheap and watched it go up than down than up and than down basically to me it is accumulating metal, and my beef is that this what lot of listed names are preaching. If there were more even handed (maybe some do in your list) but to me when I read some of them a lot of their "insights" reads like a whinge fest.

I look at it this way, two people start accumulating PM at the same time, the person who sells near the top and buy back near the bottom (even if they dont time it to perfection) will have much more than a someone who just bought at the low or just continually bought.

 

Jim Rickard's predicted that Gold will be on the AUD $ 10,000 per troy ounce soon.

 

Even at $10,000/ounce you'd still need more than 3 kilos of gold to buy an average Sydney house.

 

Dont know who, but I read some report or pumper linked in the forum about a $50,000 gold minimum. Even if all the major economies announced over night they will back their current in gold instantly which is ridiculous.

but more because it cant be done without a global catastrophe of non economic kind, imagine if it was just a whim of a country like china that drove up the price, > But it could be any Tech industry owned or operated in any country.

Because if it is just an economic whirlwind that is driving up the prices in short time span to $50K an ounce, the governments all over the world will have to get together actually suppress the gold prices.

Why -> just my thought below. The fact that it is industrial commodity makes it imperative to suppress the gold prices.

Foxconn the makers of Iphone is holding 10kilo grams of gold for plating the wires etc. Do you think they will make it or will they ring Apple in Cupertino and say, Good morning, the 200 milligram of gold that is needed for single iPhone is now worth $300 we need extra cash, do you approve?

Samsung ring Apple in Cupertino and say, hi the memory and other chips will now require $150 extra to off set the gold prices.

Other multiple smaller transistor chip manufacture asking for $10 more each.

Suddenly the gold content will be $500 more, is apple going to absorb the prices or pass that on... will people pay 500 dollars more?

 

The thing about these guys like Maloney and Schiff etc, is that they CAN identify the problem and are correct in the system being broken and unstable and unsustainable.....

.....but they really don't know WHEN the system will actually break down, nor HOW it will break down. They are passing themselves off as experts a bit, but nobody can really know the HOW and WHEN because TPTB still have their hand on the steering wheel and it's all still in FLUX. So unless you're a conspiracy theorist who believes it is going to be crashed on purpose at a set time in a pre-determined way, NOBODY IN THE WORLD REALLY KNOWS FOR SURE HOW THIS ENDS.

So, yes, Maloney and Schiff might know the WHY, but without the HOW and WHEN they are very easy to ridicule and dismiss.

 

Predictions of $50k gold presuppose hyperinflation, or at the very least the rampant inflation of the seventies repeating in the USA

Of course it could never repeat:

 

Didn't the stock market fall 40% few years back?

Hyper inflation in Venezula right now, what are we hearing about gold price there at the moment, is it sky rocketing beyond $1300 us?

Say shit happened what if Australia was a safe haven and USA is down sewers with hyper inflation

Does gold price go up for Australians?

 

I guess what I am saying is gold is US dollar dependent.
Last gfc if Australia dollar sank to 50c US gold in AUD would have been great?

But the last gfc we didn't feel much of a breeze let alone a cold while US citizens was getting evicted.

The variable that these advocates talk about is not one thing happens and everything fall down.

What is to say in the next crash AUD 20c equal 1 USD or 1 AUD = $5 USD and gold was $10,000 an ounce in usd

 

The gold price in Bolivar (Venezuelan currency) has doubled since January. AUD price has increased approx 20% in that time.

 

Good question. If the USD collapses like Venezuela currency did for example, does that mean PMs will be pinned against some other currency?

 

If you're just looking at POG in USD and the exchange rates alone, then sure - it won't be that different for Australians.

But the USA is the largest economy in the world. If they have hyperinflation there then the DEMAND for gold will be high for Americans trying to preserve their wealth. Considering the buying power of the USA that demand will be a multiplier for the gold price. So it would skyrocket in USD but it would also be significantly higher in AUD and gold miners around the world will be ramping up whatever production they can to meet the extra demand from the desperate US citizens.

Just my 2 cents.

 

^ so you think PMs will still be pinned against the USD if USD becomes worth peanuts? :/

 

They aren't pinned. They are priced.

Gold is priced in USD....and in AUD, and in EUR etc.

 

Regardless of how high gold and silver go, and let's say $1,000 silver and $50,000 gold. Most Stackers will have an extra $1,000,000 but what will it buy you? Perhaps a nice car? A good holiday? It certainly won't buy you a house as real estate will have gone up at against the funny money. Wine, woman, and song, plus sex, drugs, and rock and roll, plus a few of my favourite deadly sins. That's what it'll buy you. That's why I stack.

 

But one thing I dont see a lot of questions being asked is, why Australia is linked with USA in the advent of the next big (the real big one) crash.

For example, the next big crash could be in 30 years time, and USA could be Fourth or fifth largest economy behind, China, Europe (if it still exist), India and Japan.

Right now the fourth largest economy is Japan and fifth largest I have no idea but I presume it had recessions that we dont even know about?

 

that's what I meant