Can't find it. From memory it basically argued that Medibank Private's current earnings would be in jeopardy over the coming years (for some reason or other, I can't remember, the author was comparing Medibank to NIB and presented a number of facts and figures) and that unless premiums were increased, Medibank was in danger of not being able to maintain its current profits. The suggestion I got from reading it was that making the assumption that Medibank is a good buy based upon current earnings is flawed.
This might be of interest. http://www.switzer.com.au/the-experts/paul-rickard/the-medibank-ipo-is-not-well/
Tend to agree with Rickard. This would be a buy and hold for my SMSF so I'm happy to wait until I know I'm getting it at a good price.
7 reasons to invest in the Medibank Private IPO and 2 reasons to avoid it By Tim McArthur - October 30, 2014 The initial public offering (IPO) of the government owned private health insurer Medibank Private is shaping up to be an absolute blockbuster. With speculation that the offering will be heavily oversubscribed and likely to be priced at the top end of the indicative price range of $1.55 to $2.00, the government is set for a windfall of approximately $5.5 billion. Despite all the hype and the potential for a 'stag profit', at the end of the day, for serious long-term investors what matters is the price paid compared to the value received. On this score, retail investors are unfortunately flying blind given that they are being asked to hand over their cash without knowing at what exact price they will receive shares all they really know is it won't be above $2! The good news is, even at $2 per share the investment case for long-term investors appears to stack up in my opinion. It's not surprising actually. Historically, investors in government privatisations have benefitted from two positive drivers. Firstly, the IPOs are often priced less aggressively than their private equity peers. Secondly, the businesses are nearly always of a very high quality, often with certain monopolistic attributes. Consider these previous privatisations CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) shares currently trade at nearly $80 and have provided a massive 1,685% return since 1999. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have gained 205% since 1999 and much more since the bank was floated in stages at issue prices around $5, $9 and $10 in 1991, 1993 and 1996 respectively. Aurizon Holdings Ltd (ASX: AZJ) better known by its previous name of Queensland Rail has gained over 60% since floating in late 2010. Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS) was sold in three stages, known as T1, T2 and T3. At each stage the government achieved different sale prices: $3.30, $7.40 and $3.60 respectively. With Telstra's share price currently above $5.50, T1 and T3 have provided solid, positive investment returns. Exceptions to every rule On the flip side there aren't too many privatisations that have left investors wanting The highly priced T2 was an exception, the other one is Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN). Its stock price is down over 60% since 1999 and below the 1995 float price of $1.90. So, of these nine investment opportunities, seven have turned out to be very successful with only two leaving investors feeling sore. Based on historical precedent, the odds appear to be good for investors in Medibank Private in my opinion.
Medibank Private broker offer eight times over-subscribed http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-...ker-offer-eight-times-over-subscribed/5853866
Being a member I put $5K into it to see how it goes. Hopefully I get to have some shares. I am supposed to get a bit of advantage they tell me but with the level of interest I am not holding my breath to get 2,500 shares
Not entirely unexpected.. Main problem is getting the number of shares you want with the large scale backs Wish I had sold some oz's to buy a few more shares at the discounted price
Why not just buy more on the market at the first pull back? You'll probably only have to wait until the second day it trades
Possibly will if it drops back under $2 but I think it's unlikely unless the whole market corrects as well
Interesting trading today.. for the main reason that it was so uninteresting, flat and boring.. I was surprised that there was only 9c difference between the daily high/low.. All in all, looks like it was the perfect govt float mum and dad voters in the black.. check.. nothing left of the table for instos and maximum $ collected.. check Now if it closes the year out around $2.25 everyone will be happy
It is trading around $2.10 today but I still have no access to my shares. I was awarded 2300 ish which is not a lot but it would have been nice to know how to move them to my broker.
Funny how they took my payment within 24 hours but are yet to return the money for the shares I didn't get allocated. Other people I know haven't got their funds back either but they took the upfront payments within 24 hours.
Yeah, Me either. I think Monday the 1sdt is when they 'settle' our purchases and actually give us the shares. I reckon that they will give the money back around then.
