MAJOR ALERT - BALTIC DRY INDEX COLLAPSE - 40% down in 21 days !

Look at December figures.... and look at YTD %...... YTD - 63% NEGATIVE..... at 803 points!

On 20 May 2008, the index reached its record high level since its introduction in 1985, reaching 11,793 points. Half a year later, on 5 December 2008, the index had dropped by 94%, to 663 points, the lowest since 1986. We are now at 803 points.... This is alarming....

The Baltic Dry Index has fallen for 21 straight days, tumbling around 40% since end of November alone.....


http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

http://www.balticexchange.com/baltex/baltex-live/


21-day decline
The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) fell below 500 points Friday as bulkers continued to suffer day rate erosion.

http://www.tradewindsnews.com/drycargo/article351213.ece5


Just GOOGLE BALTIC DRY INDEX and click on NEWS and you will be surprise on the collapse.....

 

Nothing will happen. Guaranteed.

Baltic Dry me arse.

 

It is actually a very good indicator of the state of the world economy, something governments can't meddle with.

 

it's been lower, check out Jan 2012 - Jan 2013.

 

Obviously you didn't read the thread properly clear....

..."On 20 May 2008, the index reached its record high level since its introduction in 1985, reaching 11,793 points. Half a year later, on 5 December 2008, the index had dropped by 94%, to 663 points,".....

The main point is... NOT what we are now and if we went beyond and below before..... the point is... after TRILLIONS PRINTED not only by the failed empire but, by other countries as well... things have not improved a tick..... and all this printed money is like a giant coil that is stretched....

When it retraces it will break many.... especially the small super leveraged economy countries living on credit.....

 

How long before QE starts up ?? Rickards thinks 2016 - I doubt it will be that long!

 

sorry trader10 didnt give your topic the respect it deserves, this index has been at these levels before and things just kept ticking along, so maybe this time it is an indicator and we are near the end.

 

Shipping stocks on radar as Baltic dry index slumps
By Reuters | 22 Dec, 2014, 10.58AM IST

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...tic-dry-index-slumps/articleshow/45599881.cms


and Cape Index.....

The Baltic Cape Index continues to fall and as of Dec. 18 was at 617. Average cape vessel earnings were $5,580a drop of $10,000 from the previous MID-SHIP Report. Oversupply of ships remains a problem along with weakening iron ore shipments. "In past week four big miners only fixed 10 shipments total. In SEPT one of those miners fixed 10 shipments per week," said MID-SHIP.


https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/blog/5557-december-freight-update

 

Has the Manly ferry cut back its service to twice a day.?

Back to topic. Maybe the oil tankers are not needed now that the US is producing more shale oil at home.

Regards Errol 43

 

Look at the 3Y and 5Y graphs, nothing unusual here at all, why is it a MAJOR ALERT?

 

Just looked at the 5Y graph and wow have they fallen since 2010.

 

The Commodity Index is going the same way

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BCOM:IND

 

Average after the bubble of 2007/2008 should be around 2000-4000 points.....

It is now at 794 points ! this is a major indicator for the world economics... and cannot be ignored.... the changes with in brings "consequences" to the world trade and economics..... Interesting times ahead.....

22 December 2014

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -9 794

http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/bdi.html


http://www.lloydslistintelligence.com/llint/dry-bulk/baltic-dry-index.htm


http://www.scmp.com/business/money/money-news/article/1610970/chart-day-baltic-dry-breakdown


http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.php


Fall in Baltic index to adversely impact Co, industry: SCI


http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/bu...adversely-impact-co-industry-sci_1258463.html


Baltic index on crash course


http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/baltic-index-on-crash-course-114122200049_1.html

 

Baltic Dry Index on free fall for 20 straight days
hellenicshippingnews.com - 23.12.2014


....."down 40 per cent after posting losses for 20 straight days its longest losing streak since August 2012. The fall, analysts say, is due to concerns surrounding the global economic growth and a drop in crude oil prices.

The drop in the index is bad news for stocks of shipping companies whose fortunes had just started looking up after the index had rallied over 30 per cent in October.".......

http://www.balkans.com/open-news.php?uniquenumber=199926



Baltic Dry Index down to 794 points
2014 December 23 10:13

...."the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production.
On 20 May 2008, the index reached its record high level since its introduction in 1985, reaching 11,793 points. On 3 February 2012, the index had dropped 647 points, the lowest since 1986.".....


http://en.portnews.ru/news/192541/

 

You need to drink more water for that problem Grumpy House man.... LOL :lol:

 

GRAINS-Wheat, corn slump as export demand weakens

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/01/08/markets-grains-idINL3N0UN2UU20150108


Asia Dry Bulk-Capesize rates at six-year lows, could slide further

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com...e-rates-at-six-year-lows-could-slide-further/

 

A lot of people have been predicting a deflationary period before a hyperinflation period.

 

Shipowners float capesize pool proposal as dry market crumbles

A group of leading bulker owners have begun talks aimed at forging a new capesize pool the first in a decade with more than 100 ships.

Leading owners thought to include Bocimar, Petros Pappas's Star Bulk Carriers Corp, John Fredriksen's Golden Ocean Group, and C Transport Maritime (CTM) are understood to have met in the UK to discuss creating the pool.

But many others were more sceptical. One European broker doubted the potential success of efforts to consolidate tonnage.

He noted the recent decision by Golden Ocean to charter 15 capesizes on index-linked charters to German energy company RWE.

"Owners may start consolidating a bit but it doesn't show much willingness on the owners' side to take a grip on the market," he said explaining that such index-linked ships could be blamed for destroying the cape market.

"There are so many ships that are trading with the end users, it is impossible to get any leverage on the market."

Market observers complain that large bulker players, particularly Bocimar and Golden Ocean, have over-ordered on tonnage to the tune of at least 400 ships. They say that while the sector can cope with just 85% to 90% of utilisation, it is currently nearer 60%.

Another experienced capesize hand says a large bulker pool today would be toothless without the involvement of the Chinese.

He adds that 70% of what these owners do is move iron ore from Brazil or Australia to China and that a pool would be so big and obvious that it would just give these charterers the chance to apply even more pressure.

"You can't gang up against the cargo," he said. "A better plan would be to try and get hold of some."


http://www.tradewindsnews.com/weekl...capesize-pool-proposal-as-dry-market-crumbles


Another MONOPOLY in the making......man this world is going to be owned by a handful of greedy arseholes that will dictate what you buy, watch and eat.....


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Rough seas for shipping industry


In addition, the industry suffers from a glut of capacity as new ships come on line faster than older ones are scrapped. Even falling oil prices haven't benefited the industry all that much. Cheaper fuel encourages owners to take older vessels out of dry dock. Drewry Maritime Research expects the global dry-bulk fleet to grow by 7.2% this year, ahead of the 5.3% increase in demand. Even if lower oil prices stoke business, the glut of ships is expected to keep a lid on rates. Shipyards in China, Japan and South Korea are filling ship orders made in better times.

It wasn't so long ago that airlines were burdened with the same overcapacity issues. A merger wave eventually took planes out of the sky and enabled the industry to lift prices. In theory, the same thing should happen in shipping. But it's tough to get the masters of the seven seas to cry uncle.

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/rough-seas-for-shipping-industry/

 

Commodity Shipping Measure Falls to 28-Year Low on China Demand
12:22 AM AEDT
January 30, 2015

(Bloomberg) -- A measure of global shipping costs for commodities fell to a 28-year low as slowing growth in China's demand for cargoes compounds the effect a fleet glut.
The Baltic Dry Index plunged 5.1 percent to 632 points, the lowest since Aug. 22, 1986, according to data from the Baltic Exchange in London on Thursday. Freight rates for all the vessel types within the measure declined.

China, the world's biggest buyer of of coal and iron ore, will increase imports of the two commodities by 6 percent this year, down from a growth rate of 8.7 percent in 2014, according to estimates from Clarkson Plc, the world's largest shipbroker. The nation's economic expansion this year will be the slowest since 1990, the average of 67 economists' forecasts compiled by Bloomberg shows.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-to-28-year-low-as-china-demand-growth-slows



Commodity Supply Tsunami Seen by ANZ as Costs Drop on Oil
4:59 PM AEDT
January 30, 2015

(Bloomberg) -- Bulk-commodity suppliers are benefiting from cheaper oil and declining currencies, helping them to withstand lower prices, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said, warning of a so-called supply tsunami.

Oil is headed for the longest run of monthly losses since January 2009 amid speculation that rising U.S. crude supplies will exacerbate a global glut. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of global shipping costs for commodities, fell to a 28-year low on Thursday, cutting transport costs for suppliers including iron ore exporters in Brazil and Australia. The steel-making raw material declined to the lowest since at least 2009 this week.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...tsunami-seen-by-anz-as-costs-drop-on-oil-rout

 

Go to the link for the charts...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-financial-market-in-the-world-right-now.html



This is the most important financial market in the world right now

The Baltic Dry index, which plunged before the 2008 financial crash, is now at its lowest level since 1986


Why is the Baltic Dry Index important?


The Baltic Dry Index is seen as a leading indicator for world economic growth because it tracks the demand of moving raw materials such as coal, iron, steel and copper across the oceans.
The index measures the demand for moving these raw materials against the supply of ships that can carry them. The movement of raw materials is a useful guide to future economic growth because the raw materials are the building blocks for the world economy; coal is used to generate power, iron ore is used to make steel for housing and construction, and copper is needed for electrical wiring and plumbing.


What is the index showing now?


This key indicator of international economic activity is flashing red and has tumbled to a 29-year low. On Wednesday it dropped 2pc to 577 points, and it has fallen at the fastest rate since the financial crisis, or by more than 60pc during the past three months. The index is now at the lowest level since 1986.

When demand for commodities was soaring and the supply of ships was limited on May 20, 2008 the index reached a record high of 11,793 points.


How is the Baltic Dry calculated?


The Baltic Dry Index is calculated by the Baltic Exchange in London, an institution which can trace its roots back two and a half centuries to the early days in the coffee shops of London.
Every day a panel of international shipbrokers submit their prices for 23 shipping routes around the world. The prices for various sizes of ship are submitted from the smaller "Handysize" at about 20,000 dead weight tonnes, up to "Capesize" vessels weighing in at more than 100,000 dead weight tonnes. The Baltic Exchange adds up the shipping rates on the major arteries of world trade and then weights them to create the overall Baltic Dry Index.


History of the Baltic Exchange

The exchange can trace its roots back to 1744 when the Virginia and Maryland coffee house in Threadneedle Street changes its name to Virginia and Baltick.
The coffee house was a regular meeting place for shipowners and merchants to organise journeys and agree prices. The Virginia and Baltick coffee house was less than 100 metres from the small club of men offering marine insurance on Lombard Street, which later became Lloyd's of London insurance.

To combat "wild gambling" in the ship broking market a committee of senior coffee house regulars is formed in 1823. Rules are devised and an admission procedure developed. A private meeting room is established, to which admission is strictly controlled. The Baltic Exchange is formed in 1900 and is owned by its shareholders, most of whom are members the company. The company is currrently housed in the Gherkin in London.



What moves the Baltic Dry Index?


The Baltic Dry is a highly volatile index because it matches the demand for shipping raw materials with their supply every day.
Small changes in the demand for raw materials or the number of ships available can cause large movements in the rates that can be charged. If a customer has ordered a certain amount of iron ore and a ship breaks down then space has to be found on alternative vessels, so rates would quickly increase, alternatively if a ship has planned to sail but sits half empty it will slash its rates to fill the vessel and avoid a loss making journey.
A longer term factor is that it takes more than two years to build ships, whereas demand can change very quickly. The world is suffering from a huge oversupply of mega ships that have been built to feed China's demand for commodities. Vale the biggest iron ore miner in the world has built a fleet of 35 massive iron ore carriers, to ferry iron from Brazil to China.

Classed as very large ore carriers (VLOCs), the biggest of the "Valemax" fleet boasts a 400,000 dead weight tonnage (dwt) the amount a ship can safely carry which far exceeds the 364,000dwt of the previous record holder. Capesize ships megaships so-called because they were too big to travel through the Panama or Suez Canals so went via Cape Horn or the Cape of Good Hope have crept up from around 120,000dwt in the early 1980s to closer to the 180,000dwt mark in the past decade.

At the same time China has embarked on an unprecendented shipbuilding boom fuelled by cheap government loans, according to data from shipping analytics group Clarksons. This wave of new capacity on world shipping markets has hit rates hard.

Another factor that has been driving down the index within the past nine months has been the collapse in the oil price. The largest cost per voyage is the marine fuel needed to get from A to B. As the fuel costs fall in line with the oil price then shipping rates become cheaper.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-financial-market-in-the-world-right-now.html