Processing facility granted operational license overnight - stock up 30c so far - LYC has to provide plans for permanent waste reprocessing facility for permanent license - Therefore I may now officially, as Mekon of my own destiny... TAKE THE REST OF THE WEEK OFF! Hussar! (I love it when a 3 yr plan comes together...)
Lynas scare me, very liquid, managment are not 100% honest and they attract political negative attention... I stayed away and prefure the other REE plays. But congratulations on the move, I sold out @ $2.12 and wanted to get back in under $1 but resisted. It was a powerhouse for my portfolio in 2010/early2011 - lynas did me well so for that I thank them.
And you keep your money in a BANK lolol!?!?!?!?!?!?! The Mt Weld resource is (currently) the finest for light REE in the World, no contest. MOLY in US last year started to receive 'strategic' funding from the US Congress (all very hush hush of course) so basically they had a blank cheque to play with. I know that Fuziah has mobilised a groundswell of public opinion hot off the back of Fukushima, but tbh there'll always be demand for Lynas product for at least the next 25 yrs, raw or cooked. I'm heavily in there - been buying for a while and probably should've waited until last Sept/Oct to buy more but I had other things on the go... I also have friends working in renewables who were postgrad on neodymium magnets for turbines, and when Siemens turned up on the scene I knew I should just sit out Q3&4's declines & bide my time... The temp op license is only 2 yrs, yes, but I don't think Saleh's lot will get into power in the next general election - that's either before 2012's out or by April 24th 2013... Given the potential resources & benefits to the MY economy I have one of my usual gut feelings about it. Also the maiden dividend 2013/4 looks like a real carrot to me... possibly 50-80c+ ps, which keeps me interested. Fingers xxx'd anyhow.
I still think my money for investment in REE is safer elsewhere, but your right Lynas is the best house on the street. As I said I use to hold and LYC did well for me but managed to get out before the collapse in REEs and reinvested that money into undervalued gold and silver.
Ditto to what he said ^ From memory i got in at 48c and managed to build a nice wall with the proceeds
I like to trade in and out on lyc. It is very liquid n hugh volume trading. By saying that, the SP got manipulated big time by the big boys.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-wary-over-lynas/story-e6frg9lo-1226466374365 START By: Criterion From: The Australian September 06, 2012 12:21PM Although palpably relieved, investors have taken a cautious approach to Lynas shares following last night's news the rare-earths producer has won a crucial licence to boot up its contentious Malaysian processing plant. Lynas (LYC 81.5) shares by late morning had soared 22c, or 37 per cent, but some context is required: they're still lower than the level of mid-July when it was feared the Malaysian government would chicken out of handing over the already-promised paper. Given the shaky outlook for commodities, the reticence is understandable -- but does this mean Lynas shares are a bargain? Just to re-cap, the approval allows Lynas to transport concentrate from its Mt Weld mine in Western Australia to the plant at Gebang. Lynas has already stockpiled 13,000 tonnes of the stuff and plans annual production of 22,000 tonnes over two phases. Depending on whom you talk to, the Mt Weld output is fetching $US30 to $US50 a kilogram, implying revenue at the midpoint of $US480 million. (Owing to a misplaced zero, our $3.3bn estimate in yesterday's column was a tad overstated, which goes to show that sometimes a zero is worth far more than nothing). Production won't ramp up overnight and there's still concern about Lynas's thin cash position given the capex requirements in ramp-up stage. "Our analysis indicates Lynas will have a slim cash buffer through this period -- $20m in the second half of 2013,'' Macquarie Equities says. "Management has indicated the possible need for $50-$70m in working capital for phase two (and) the company is confident it will have access to bank debt to fund this if required.'' If Lynas is caught short, at least it wields the whip hand which was certainly not the case less then 24 hours ago. The broker analysis we've seen models only modest revenue in 2012-13 -- between $43m-$148m -- and underlying earnings of $20m-$70m. The year of payback for patient punters is in 2013-14 when Lynas generates underlying earnings $160m to $300m. Of course, there's more theory in this than a physics textbook, the wildcard being whether the price for these exotic industrial ingredients holds up better than the plunging value of their poor cousin, iron ore. Criterion last rated Lynas a spec buy at 76c on August 14 on the binary outcome of Lynas either getting the licence - and it was hard to see how the Malaysians could renege without seriously damaging the country's reputation with foreign investors - or not getting it. The latter may have been fatal for the company. We'll maintain the spec buy. But we won't go quite as far as Patersons Securities, which believes the "extremely undervalued'' stock should be worth $2.75. About 10 per cent of Lynas shares have been short sold, which means hedge funds should be scrambling to buy to cover their position ... in theory. END
Things are hotting up then after the TOL was issued: http://www.smh.com.au/business/firs...lise-to-fight-lynas-plant-20120912-25srb.html http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/9/11/nation/12000970 http://rareearthinvestingnews.com/7...potential-rare-earth-malaysia-australia-lamp/ I'm not looking forward to bad press should the protestors be successful in blocking the import of concentr8 - and the MY govt needs to avoid a pr disaster BIGTIME or the matter will become a big election issue. The MY police & army aren't used to baton diplomacy en masse, on tv & on social networking sites like Twitter & FB - so they'd better tread very very carefully.
Whoooooooah there! Predictably poorly received QR yesterday left many PI's seething at production probs at LAMP in Gebeng Malaysia, plus an admission of 'disappointing' performance, sales, mkt pricing on REE baskets currently etc. I'm still holding, but v reluctantly - well they do say 'small acorns do not from large oak tREES grow' eh? Despite the screeches of 'cost savings' it's comforting to know that ex-'Great Leader' Nick Curtis happily took $960k on leaving as CEO. For him that is. There are lots of agendas at play on LYC right now - mostly strategic, and borne from politics of domination/control directed by the big commercial banks acting as proxy for US DoD. That's my theory anyway. Wouldn't surprise me if in 6 mths Molycorp makes a bottom of the barrel offer for the whole shebang - a couple of cents on the $ should do it.
I've been watching this particular sucker for a very very very long time now and I feel this is just a pump and dump stock for the big boys. As for the theories? I've heard thousands and every one of them was wrong incorrect. I've lost on this one every time I thought it turned the corner. The bottom line I reckon is the boys in Malaysia can't be trusted even if you leave a big brown bag at a remote drop off point :lol:
