Lithium, Cobalt & Rare Earths

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by scott_reeve, Feb 5, 2018.

  1. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    Don't think a dedicated lithium thread on here yet, or cobalt or rare earths.

    I know a bunch of people are complete believers of the 'EV' revolution, claiming it will be disruptive and like to point to EV car sales predictions etc.

    I'm more interested in trading these sectors when they are hot, and be out of them when they are cold (like more recently). Come next GFC-style crash, new car sales will plummet, empty airports will be filled once more with unsold cars and lithium, cobalt, rare earths sectors will be treated like every other commodity on the market.

    Anyhow, I have been following a number of ETFs closely last few months which has helped see where headwinds may come for ASX EV-commodity stocks.

    Global X Lithium ETF (LIT) has been a good gauge on the direction of ASX lithium stocks. The ETF includes holdings in GXY, PLS, ORE, NMT, AJM, LIT. The ETF owns between 2.4 to 3.3% of total listed ordinary shares of these companies.

    19 Jan chart:
    The large bearish engulfing candle on large volume (that engulfed the previous few days), followed by a large gap down was a big early warning sign more pain was to come.
    [​IMG]

    4 Feb chart:
    A number of Support levels broken. Volumes increasing as ETF price falls lower.
    [​IMG]

    REMX:
    4 Feb chart:
    REMX ETF falling, but still in upward channel for the moment.
    [​IMG]
    * ASX stocks have largest weighting on ETF (27.7%).
    * ASX stocks in ETF with their portions of total: ILU 6.42%, PLS 6.05%, LYC 5.33%, GXY 5.06%, ORE 4.86%.

    Cobalt prices remain quite robust for the moment at around US$81,000 tonne:
    [​IMG]

    In the end, like other previous commodity booms, most ASX lithium, rare earth, cobalt stocks will never get into production.
     
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  2. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    For sure.
     
  3. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    Quick update:

    LIT:
    [​IMG]

    REMX:
    [​IMG]

    Cobalt:
    Sector might heat up again with the AUZ announcement today.
     
  4. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    LIT:
    * Hit wall of Resistance. Negative candle yesterday on high volume.
    [​IMG]
    * Most ASX Lithium stocks following this weakness today.

    REMX:
    * Similar movement to LIT yesterday, but gap up on open pushed REMX back into the channel.
    [​IMG]
     
  5. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Another question to take into consideration is we are about two year away from industry consolidation

    Out of these I can only see two becoming major players: GXY, PLS, ORE, NMT, AJM and LIT
    Don't get me wrong, even owning the "wrong" four is great, the takeover premium will be juicy.
     
  6. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    Lithium & Rare Earth ETF update:
    (see above for previous charts)

    LIT:
    [​IMG]

    LIT trend becoming more clear. A series of lower highs and lower lows have come in. LIT's attempt to stay inside previous channel has failed (two light blue lines). A test of Support around 30 is looking more likely. Best case scenario, finds Support here and consolidates in mid-30s for a while.

    * ASX lithum stocks a mixed bag. Main players mostly going sideways over last month. Many Li specs haven fallen hard (eg. ASN).

    REMX:
    [​IMG]

    REMX hit Resistance a couple of weeks ago. Since then, a series of gap downs on higher volume. Good chance a test of recent lows going to happen next. Potential Support around 26.

    * LYC done quite well the last month. Currently $2.46.

    Cobalt:
    [​IMG]
    Now US$94,000 /tonne.

    * ASX cobalt sector been quite hot over last month. Lots of acquisitions/drilling going on, particularly in Aust, US, Canada and DRC.
     
  7. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Major blood bath on Lithium miners this week, re: ORE, PLS and GXY, for now I’m still well in the money, so will wait it out for a while.

    REMX looks interesting though,
     
  8. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Who is still holding.... I have added on to GXY, PLS, LIT and added on INR and LYC

    In April May last year went in big doubled than tripple down on GXY, PLS, INR and LYC.

    Except AJM
    which went kaput . $10,000 gone up in smoke
     
  9. Silver Soul

    Silver Soul Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I wanted so badly to buy VUL at .20 but didn't have the cash :( . & missed the rocket.

    Screenshot_2021-02-16 vul asx share price - Google Search.jpg
     
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  10. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ sell ag then you have cash, then buy back ag lol
     
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  11. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Ouch, but there are still plenty of 5 to 30c Lithium, Rare Earth and Cobalt plays to buy, hold and wait.

    The way I am playing the juniors at the moment is the scatter gun approach, than doubling, trippling down hard as it gains momentum. Hoping for one or two pops. INR was one that poped from 9c to 46c right now. So did LYC but that was $1.50 when I bought in, so it was a sizeable investment.

    My current gambling stocks

    ARU, ASO, LIT, AML, ARR, CCZ, FFX, HAS, INF, IXR, LKE, NTU, PGM, REE, RML and VML stocks I have $250 to $4500 position on each, all from $500 to $750 initital investment.

    Lithium and Rare Earths prices might crash again but one thing I am sure of is that it will bounce back up with the the mandated zero EM cars in Europe and Korea and Japan by 2030, plus many countries that will follow.

    Deloittes forecast

    EV sales growing from 2.5 million in 2020 to 11.2 million in 2025, then reaching 31.1 million by 2030

    That is a lot of Lithium and Rare Earths

    I looked at Nickel and Cobalt but decided to concentrate on Lithium and Rare Earth as it seems like it have less downside ie eliminating Cobalt from Batteries and as for Nickel Mines too many major mothballed mines around to risk it on penny stocks.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2021
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  12. SilverHaas

    SilverHaas Member

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    I have about 3% of portfolio on REMX
     
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  13. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I took a look at REMX last year, passed it as didn't like the holdings.
     
  14. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    EV's and many many Forklifts use Lithium Ion Batteries and they're only going to become more and more popular as Lithium batteries have many advantages over the old lead acid batteries.

    Can anyone help me with buying Lithium stocks as I have never invested in stocks before?

    Any help greatly appreciated....thanks.
     
  15. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Last edited: Mar 24, 2022
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  16. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Been watching JRV since a bit under 20c was going to buy but nothing else took off for me to reallocate. Never saw it mentioned here few solid bags would have been made
     
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  17. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    @heartastack true, so many unknown gems out, even looking at my first post in this thread I am lucky i bought few good one but most were "dudish" and sold out currently hold FFX, ARU and sold out of LKE.

    But owning stocks at 2c moving to 5c and 10c one must monitor chop and change and not go into diamond hands mode.

    Also as mentioned in my llnked post, I was looking LTR at 10c but only bought at $1.48, but instead I was piling in on INR, AVZ, FFX. Did ok, AVZ is on a tear.

    Just have to latch on to few, sell the duds and keep studying new opportunity
     
  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    ZNC returned positive drill results. Market liked it.
     
  19. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Andromeda ADN has found heavy rare earths in a recent assay, and Widgie Nickel WIN may be worth looking at for battery metals.
     
  20. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Def interesting ZNC lithium and EVM but I think I will wait for the demerger of other tenements. I dont know much about those base metals, and too much to take in ie what grade is good, market size and state of supply vs demand etc

    I am presuming the demerged entity will still keep the partnership of RTR.
     

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