Kook's are now $24.50

Discussion in 'Silver Coins' started by SilverDJ, Nov 13, 2018.

  1. SlyGuy

    SlyGuy Active Member

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    Very wise advice.

    You want to buy at or near spot, hope silver price goes up after awhile (as it basically always has), and any premium you get is a bonus.
    When you buy coins with substantial premium (Kooks, pandas, libertads, etc etc), you are crippling your ability to profit since you are guessing on a future market. Most people will just consider it a piece of silver with a weight to it.
     
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  2. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

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    You mean you wouldn't buy the Ares God of War going for about $1,500 for 2 oz of silver. Lol.
     
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  3. SlyGuy

    SlyGuy Active Member

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    Lol. I saw those, but I would prefer the liquidity of 100 silver eagles for that money.

    ...I tell ya what: if spot price hits $725/oz and stays there awhile, I will give a 2oz high relief coin for $1500 a look. It better be Apollo or Hercules or something cool on the coin, tho ;)
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2018
  4. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Active Member

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    How about Lunars? I noticed that Lunar Series 1 silver coins command significant premium, definitely more than 20% above spot, whereas a year 2000 generic silver bar may go for near spot.

    For some reason vintage silver does a lot better than gold. Plenty of 1880 US gold coin going for spot or below on the secondary market.
     
  5. SlyGuy

    SlyGuy Active Member

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    They are sold with that premium right now. In the future, nobody knows. Aside from having spot value as a near certainty, their value could be a bit higher, a lot higher, or a whole lot higher. Nobody knows.

    Obviously, the mint that makes them and the bullion sites that sell them want you to think they will go up in premium value. There is a ton of marketing on them with press releases, ads, forums... limited mintage, special edition, bla bla. You need to realize that the marketing is where much of the perceived premium value stems from. I have seen many accounts here on this site that are simply to spam "collector" coins. Bullion sites and mints will always be happiest to sell their high premium coins, esp the current new ones or any they didn't sell in past years, for obvious reasons. Likewise, most people won't sell a premium coin they just bought for a loss, so the supply is somewhat constricted in the near term. However, once that marketing and hype basically disappears once the set is over, and the market will decide the value from that point forward. Think of the current minted sets that carry a premium like IPOs on stocks (IPO usually stands for "it's probably overpriced").

    As was mentioned by milled, it is all speculative with regards to what premiums for any coins or rounds will be in the future... and if premiums will continue to exist. You are basically guessing on the subjective value of the coin art to future buyers, many of whom haven't even been born yet. A lot of perception of current coin sets (Lunar, Queen Beast, Amer the Beautiful, etc etc) will depend on what sets come out in the future and if they're perceived as better or worse in terms of looks and potential for appreciation. Silver tarnishes, spots, tones, etc even if it is in capsules, so newer coins almost always tend to look better.

    My guess is simply that the coin market will always remain full of many many current silver mintages and past minted choices, and most people will buy whatever they like that is around spot price. Some people will fall into the marketing from the mints and chase sets that have a premium. Newer collectors also often make the mistake of overpaying for high premium or fractional or etc types of silver, but the newbies arent usually aren't buying in much quantity. In the end, people can put whatever price tag they want on prior minted sets and coins, but if the price premiums are higher than buyers will pay, they will just sit unsold.

    I honestly don't even know what lunars are, but I'm sure it's a collector series of 999 coins just like Queen Beasts or Canadian Maple privy or many others. It has the current benefit of promotion and pricing support from the bullion sites and recent buyers. When the bullion sites move on to new cash cows and the buyers of them lose patience and want to free up cash for other things, you will start to see if the premium is still supported.

    In reality, you see most older silver coins and rounds selling for right around spot, so that's always the default future value in my estimation. Therefore, I won't play the high premiums game. My guess for the Lunars in 5 or 10 or 100 years would be spot price +5% or 15%, just like govt bullion and most past sets that have ever been done. I might pay slightly more towards the 10-15% side for good art or good condition, but that's about the limit on the vast majority of my stack. Silver is silver, with very few exceptions.

    The only exception is the super high premium art stuff like the God of War barsenault mentioned. That is more of a collectible art than a coin, though. It might as well be made of pewter or aluminum or or glazed clay or anything... its silver is merely the medium for art (and a marketing factor to sell it). That art stuff is a totally different animal. You are getting into the realm or rare collectibles, which can appreciate based on sentiment and aesthetics and rarity. Spot prices will barely have an effect on those.
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2018
  6. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

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    I agree with SlyGuy for the most part. Who knows if the premiums will remain intact as prices increase. As we have seen, this market (PM's) has gone from bad to worse for the most part. A telltale is just look at this forum. It used to buzz with electricity and debate and information...folks have run for the hills. It's this way on most of the forums I visit. Some have abandoned PM's altogether and have dove head long into the crypto space, thinking perhaps that is a better store of value (they're now seeing not so much).

    At the end of the day, most everything is speculative in nature. Take a look at the 1 oz PM tigers with a mintage of 300k (?). Still commanding a $35 - 40 price tag (give or take)...even with this abysmal market with silver at $14.50. That's like a $20.00 premium (approx) over eagles of the same date. On the downside of silver, I'm a firm believer that these semi-numi pieces (kooks, tigers, Emu, swans, etc...) will maintain (I know it's speculation) a higher premium than those generic bullion coins and rounds. I know not all of the relatively low mintage bullion coins (5,000 - 500k) will maintain/hold a significant premium over the generic rounds or bullion coins, but most will, IMHO.

    I think where it gets tricky is, what happens if silver goes to $75.00, and the premium at $14.00 was say $10.00. Will a flood of folks pay $85.00 (or higher) for a 2017 dog over say a US eagle? I'm not sure, no one does, until we get there. BUT I wholeheartedly believe that if silver went from 70.00 back to $14.00, silver Eagles will always follow spot price, plus a tiny % for premium; whereas these limited mintage runs will maintain a much higher premium (as what is happening now 2010 eagles are selling for spot plus a little, vs the Tigers, kooks, and many others selling for $35 - $40).

    The other factor to consider is liquidity. how quick do you need the funds? Higher premium pieces take longer to sell because there's a 'collectible factor' that has to come into play of the buyer of semi-numi pieces...whereas eagles and maples can sell fast (as I've said in the past, big reason why I also have an account at ownx.com...click of a few buttons, and sell 1000's of ounces...which I did the other day...not thousands, but a couple hundred - no worries about shipping, fees, packaging, etc...sold, and cash-o-la in the bank).

    So, once again, one shoe size does NOT fit all. There are multiple ways to slice this apple. It sounds like Sly is all about spot price and generic bullion, and maybe he'll do well - awesome. That's 1 way to make money in this space. You can also make GOOD $$ playing the semi-numi game too (I have), or buying miners, or buying art on medal. Just think if you bought 10 pieces of the Ares God of War or The White Horse - Four Horsemen or Nike/Victoria Goddess or Poseidon, etc...those went out at like $220'ish? Yes, expensive at the time, but now selling a dime a dozen for $500 - 1700.00. I think you'd be doing better than Sly who has been stuck at $14.00 silver for how long now? How long will he and others be waiting and hoping for the price of silver to go beyond the wall of $16, 17, 18, etc...not saying that Sly won't have his day in the sun...but when is the question, yes? And this while missing out on the other channels to make money (swans, Emu and the other comments above).

    That's my 2 cents, and you can take that to the bank!
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2018
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  7. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Active Member

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    I did a search on Ares God of War. It has a mintage of only 500. This is extremely low for an international marketed product. Is it even possible to get hold of it at the launch price?

    The QB 2 oz Griffin had a mintage of 200k, and yet many can't get it at a reasonable premium. And this is during a time when silver is such a hated metal. Imagine if silver is skyrocketing (not saying it will happen), it will be possible for small guys like us to get hold of any of the really limited edition stuff. The dealers and their employees will be buying it for themselves.

    In my opinion, both methods (buying generics close to spot, or semi-numis at launch) will work for now since silver prices are still low.
     
  8. SlyGuy

    SlyGuy Active Member

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    Not right now.

    They can't get ahold of the Griffin for low premium right now. Good things come to those who wait. Talk to me in a few years when QB set is old news and people are busy paying high premiums collecting "Kings of England" or "Knights of England" or "British Legends of Sport" or whatever comes next. I bet the sacred Griffin of 2018 will not be very tough to get at all after due time.

    The mints know that the current collectable set is their cash cow and highest profit margin for using up the blocks of silver from refiners and all the old and crusty trade-in coins bullion sites sell them back. It is simply the silver circle of life. This is precisely why they do sets of coins and release the coins one by one... collect them ALL. They also don't announce the next set until the previous one is almost over (in case people prefer the next one). The sets of coins entice new people jumping in to the set to chase the coins from the previous year or two (aka unsold ones collecting dust on the shelves), and it makes people who have started a set likely to keep buying as future ones arrive. Perth mint is probably the king of getting people to overpay for sets of coins carrying substantial premium, and British Royal or Royal Canadian are good at it also. Pandas and Elephants get their inflated premiums with changing art ever year. Obviously, some private mints get their piece of the boutique action also :)

    People trying to collect the complete set while it is being released drives up the price to support the premiums. So do people who are buying rolls of the coins (usually early ones) in a collectible set and just doing middle man work with short term profit taking with no real intent to actually collect the set (much like concert or sports ticket scalpers). That strategy of flipping for profits is an option to consider if you enjoy looking up the prices of your coins weekly or even daily (I sure don't), but it is fraught with problems such as having to guess near the beginning how popular a set that will be released over years will become... and guess what spot price might do also.

    ...Personally, I just avoid it altogether unless I really like a set. If I do, I wait until the initial hype wears off. For example, Queen Beasts is cool looking and on my "tune in later" list right now. If eventual lowering of premium and demand for a set that I wanted doesn't happen, no worries... more good sets will come along in the future (or probably already did). I will just keep buying basic bullion for that 5-15% premium all along, and that lets me enjoy high liquidity with very limited potential to lose premium $. Could I miss out on a set with art I wanted or a set that does hold its value in the long term - or gain much in the short term? Maybe... but it is also just as likely that I find that whole set on clearance sale during the next cold silver market.

    Just like the stock market, it is as much about controlling your emotions and knowing other people will over-react than it is about actual underlying value. As with any investment, I didn't lose anything by not buying mint sets while they are new and active. Even if spot price is low, the premiums on new release stuff just makes them too illogical and risky to me considering that basic bullion is always cheap and good. Warren Buffet liked to say that the stock market is like baseball without called strikes. There is no penalty to wait for the pitches you really like and are reasonable sure about... not just hoping and gambling on.
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2018
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  9. SlyGuy

    SlyGuy Active Member

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    Oh exactly. That is why bullion dealers sell everything from cull Morgans and junk silver up to current year stuff. There is a market for all of it.

    Their highest profit margins are obviously on the newer stuff, though... especially the high premium coins and bars... and mainly on collectible sets. That gets them good money right away as well as recurring customers also. You certainly don't see people creating accounts on here and making many press releases to say how great the basic Libertads or Kangaroos or Buffalo generic rounds are going to be this year. :)
     
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  10. Shallow_explorer

    Shallow_explorer New Member

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  11. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    next 1000 please
     
  12. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

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    Dolphins, Swans, Emu, Birds of Paradise, and who knows what else they have coming is getting to be a bit much. Does anyone even know who many are in each series. Is it 4 or 40...it’s just getting to be a bit much, IHMO, and I’m being very selective of what semi-numi coins I buy...and premiums have to be low (2 or so dollars more than an eagle), or forget about it. I’ll just put my money into my ownx.com account, and buy the beautiful art work from the Poland mint...getting in on the ground floor purchase price. Swans and Emu have done well, and the Birds have tanked. The staples I’m sure will always do well (Kooks, Koala, and Lunar - although I will not buy the 1 oz Lunars).

    It’s almost getting as bad as the panda market in china. Everyone and their brother are minting Panda medals (private and official mints)...I think there will be medals of pandas pooping and jumping soon. I mean there are so many poses you can have. They’re actually starting to now copy each other.
     
  13. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Active Member

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    I won’t buy the pandas with their millions mintages, they are no different from generic rounds.
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2018 at 7:34 PM
  14. SlyGuy

    SlyGuy Active Member

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    Generic rounds are 31.1g of silver, while govt pandas are just 30g.
     
  15. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If premiums for Queens Beast. Griffin goes up much more, Royal mint will just mint more, so don’t worry.
     
  16. malachii

    malachii Well-Known Member

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    I am a dealer so take what I say with a grain of salt. I have built in biases obviously - I make money out of this industry. But I'd like to comment on a few things that seem to be being said with no basis.

    As a dealer - I make far more out of older coins (5+ years) than I do out of new releases. Quite often I'm lucky if the markup on a new release is 20% (normally it's more like single digits) where as older stuff can be 5 times that.

    Some things are never really going to increase in premium above spot - and they are not intended too. Bars, generic coins, granules etc are designed to just be a "scrap metal" product following the price of spot up and down. If you purchase them with the intent on the increasing their premiums above spot then you will be disappointed. They do on occasions though. I said for years that bars would never really become "numismatic" but some definitely have done so now.

    Limited edition coins though are different and if you ignore them and only buy "spot" products then you will miss out on a very important and lucrative part of your metal investment journey. Things like Lunars, Kooks, Pandas etc can be predictably more profitable than bars/generics at not much more of a purchase price. I am not talking about proof coins at the moment. They fall into another category all together.

    Lunars are the easy example. If you go back to the early series 2 releases you could buy the coins for spot plus a small premium much like you can with the current lunar pigs. People focus on the 1oz coins because they are limited to 300 000 but tend to forget about the fact that even though the other sizes are "unlimited" in number - they are limited in time (only produced for 12 months or less - except for the 1kg). These will always increase in premium above current lunars and generics. Why? Because I can buy as many 5oz pigs as I want but the 2008 Mouse is fixed and if I don't have any then I have to find someone who does and then convince them to part with them. And usually they only have one or two so getting any number is very difficult. When spot moves up $5, then the cost of the mouse increases by $6. When spot drops by $5 then IF the mouse drops - it's only by a $1 or so. If you doubt this try buying a 5oz Series 2 Mouse if you can find one. Not that long ago I had 10 for sale and they sold within 24 hours at well over $1200 each.

    The advantage you have with buying limited edition bullion coins at slightly above normal premiums is that they move from being in the bullion category into the numismatic category. It's kind of like owning a stock before it becomes part of the top 100 index or a house in a suburb before they put the railway line in. It still has the "backstop" of the base metal but the premium and future desirability gives you a cushion for the downside and a spring for the upside. Never say that a coin is 15%+ above spot so it's a "ripoff". Look at it first and consider it's future potential. Is it part of a desirable collection? Is it a beautiful design? Is the designer renowned (eg the current PM Wedge-Tailed Eagle designer - huge in the States)? I'm definitely not saying that anything at any price is worth buying but I am saying don't throw the baby out with the bath water.

    malachii
     
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  17. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    understandable

    mintage numbers
    kook with 500k
    panda with 8000k

    premium difference is about $3 ea coin, kook being cheaper

    for back tracking, it is very costly to start collecting panda
    it is still affordable for kook and was that re-mint made them possible to complete them, premium has also become relatively mild

    we don't often see group buy anymore
     
  18. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Active Member

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    I'm not into kooks, but for curiosity, do you mean PM will re-mint past year kooks? As in they will remint 1995 kooks? For lunars I know they can remint anytime until the end of the series - 2019/2020 for lunar 2.
     
  19. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    they did some years ago, there was hu ha last time, got many people disappointed
    1991 etc was somehow re-minted, but did not hit the full 300k

    for Lunar 2, think it is referring to 1kg size, that PM have sufficient following like in Germany and some other countries; they will mint the whole sets to orders
     

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