Actually the trick is to know you know very little and stay skeptical. Games are played at many levels.
Just some general reading as a background (hope it it relevant). Lessons from the 1930s Great Depression Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 26, Issue 3, Autumn 2010, Pages 285–317 https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article/26/3/285/374047
What did I miss? Where did he call you a moron? Bloody hell. Too the optometrist for new glasses with me.
You inferred that you are a moron, Bron did not imply it. If you are so easily offended maybe the internet is not the best place for you.
Actually I wasn't directing that to you, I was talking about the creators of that theory, which I think is Ted Butler but maybe someone else came up with it first.
There is another theory: JPM is just acting as a market maker and has no position long or short. As longs come into the market and bid up the future price, JPM goes short and buys silver in the spot market. They make a profit from the difference between the higher (bid up) futures price and lower spot price. So yes the own all the 150moz of silver in their warehouses, but that is netted out against their short positions. Note total open interest in silver has been around 1000moz for the past few years so the 150moz is not much in terms of the total shorts/longs.
And if they get caught on the wrong side of the trade, their mates @ the CFTCorp, or whatever they call it now will just change the rules of the GAME like they did against the Hunt Brothers and require 1) larger margins 2) selling only. etc. etc.
Why on earth would JP Morgan dump their stock pile when they are able to manipulate the market with it like people are saying? What happens when the big crash happens that everyone has been talking about for many, many, years. I would say JP Morgan will be the richest Bank in the World then. Can't change that. So me I just Keep on Stacking and hope everything comes to Fruition. Cheers.
HA HA HA, you cheeky old bugger, I've just been replying to you on the other website & here you were all the time. You joined in 2015, no wonder you forgot about it. You've obviously remembered how to log in. WOW, you are up to 10 messages LOLOL. KEEP STACKING, Charlie. p.s. What's that funny looking flag under your name?
What evidence is there that JP Morgan "owns" the silver? Don't they offer custodial services for PMs like storage, transfer, etc? Seems to me the only places I see that say JP Morgan actually owns that silver are the typical PM pumper type sites? If JP owns all of that silver, let's see the notation on their balance sheet. They can't hide that much value and say it is an accounting error. I really do wish that JP owned all that silver, it would make me more comfortable having most of my investment money tied into the crap, I mean silver. Also, the idea that JP is buying and holding all that silver so they can "naked short sell" doesn't hold water. If they are holding the metal to back it up, it is not really a naked short per se. The silver JP has been allegedly accumulating started quite a while ago when silver was higher than at these levels. If we assume that JP has been continually buying, their "dollar cost average" would be higher than current spot. If they let the metal go at lower prices they would be losing money. I can't remember who it was, but some "pundit" was saying JP Morgan was buying US silver eagles. If that is true, then JP is paying AT LEAST $2 over melt per oz, which is the price that the Mint charges authorized dealers to buy them. IIRC, it was further reported that the ASEs were being melted to make silver bars. Why would JP pay that premium to buy silver when 1000 oz bars can be bought at melt or below melt at wholesale? China has been buying up the big vault spaces around the world it seems. Perhaps, JP is holding the metals for China. So maybe if China and the US and allies get into argument, the US, UK, etc, can say F' U' China, we're taking the gold/silver in your vaults in our countries? https://money.cnn.com/2013/10/18/news/china-jpmorgan-real-estate/ https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ell-london-bullion-vault-to-chinese-bank-gold
If I had a kilo of silver for every time I have read one of these kind of stories, I would have more silver than JP Moron.
Something to remember is that the financial statements available to the public from a publicly filed company in its 10-K and 10-Qs are aggregated. While this silver position might seem "significant" to you, you have to think about these assets in terms of all of JP Morgan's assets. J.P. Morgan has over $2.5 trillion of assets on its books. 150 million ounces of silver as an asset is practically nothing for a bank like JPM - that's roughly $3 billion of assets assuming a spot price of $20 per ounce. It's literally a rounding error. Having that much silver on hand would give JPM flexibility on the futures market. Something to remember is that *most* futures contract are "naked" in the sense that the entity selling the contract generally does not have the capability to fulfill the order (i.e., they don't have the silver, oil, corn, etc. to deliver when the contract is due). Instead, most traders cover their position before the end of the month. This can lead to some interesting market dynamics come settlement time. Having a significant amount of registered silver would give a trader the flexibility to make delivery on the contract rather than get caught up in a squeeze. I'm sure there are some other advantages here, but most of my personal knowledge about trading futures is not in the precious metals space, but I'm sure COMEX has a host of rules or restrictions that would give a trader with the ability to delivery flexibility on the trading floor. Also, this is my first post. I'm something of an amateur silver stacker (in moderation). It's a lot of fun to read what everyone gives their opinion on, even if I disagree with some of it.
True that amount is not much for JP, but it is said to be one of largest silver stockpiles held by one entity anywhere in the world (again, this info comes from the PM pumper pundit sites). Here is an article from a US PM seller site (take for what it's worth) that shows JP Morgan started accumulating silver in 2011 (right after the high). Why in the world would smart, high level types at JP start buying silver near the high, and keep buying it all the way down to $14 or so, over the past eight years? They would be so underwater on their purchases it would be ridiculous. The article also says all the SLV silver is stored by JP Morgan, so perhaps that is part of the large number of ounces reported in their vaults? Saying JP owns all the silver in it's warehouse is kind of like saying that all the money a bank is holding belongs to the bank (well, they might after a big bust via bail ins, but not right now etc). https://www.jmbullion.com/investing-guide/pricing-payments/who-owns-most-silver-bullion-today/
It could be silver in JPM's vaults and actual title belongs to a different trading entity - you're really only making silver COMEX eligible/registered if you're trading or looking to trade in the future. As far as JPM being underwater on its holdings of silver, if it even is JPM's silver, you have to look at this from its perspective. If JPM's silver holdings give it some kind of trading advantage, what really matters is what kind of monthly profit JPM is making trading on COMEX due to this additional flexibility rather than what its basis is on those silver bars. So it looks as if JPM didn't put together a COMEX vault until fairly recently (see the article below), so all of the silver they bought was after the price of silver spiked in 2011. Most of what they bought was in 2015-2016 when the price of silver was fairly low. https://www.goldbroker.com/news/jpmorgan-comex-silver-vault-specific-peculiarity-1157 I poked around the prospectus for SLV and it does not look as if its silver is registered or eligible for COMEX. It actually explicitly states that the trust does not trade on the commodities market and that it only takes delivery of physical silver that complies with LBMA rules.
none of this explains the concentrated and determined short positions driving this market for nearly a decade at multiples of the actual worldwide physical.
I just read the Bear Stearns article 5 minutes ago and this was the first thing that popped into my head, so forgive me if this is overly simplistic or missing context from something other than the original post. However, could JPM's futures position simply be a hedge? An oil refiner who takes possession of 500,000 barrels of crude now owns the physical and would likely short 500 CL contracts (1000 barrels each) to hedge their flat price risk. The post states "Only after JPMorgan bought enough physical silver by 2012 to 2013 to cover Bear Stearns’ former COMEX paper short position, did it realize it didn’t have to stop accumulating metal as a defensive measure; but that it had the means, motive and opportunity to turn what was a highly defensive original motive into a highly offensive one in terms of an unprecedented pure money-making opportunity." So if JPM did in fact go on to buy another 700 million ounces after covering the Bear short position, it seems like being short 140,000 SI futures (5000 ounces per contract, I believe) would be the appropriate position to hedge their physical holdings. I know it isn't a sexy theory, but that's what my simple mind defaulted to as a logical explanation. Cheers!
