Is this it? Is the Aussie economy headed into recession or worse?

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by SpacePete, Dec 4, 2014.

  1. Caput Lupinum

    Caput Lupinum Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ? :/
     
  2. GOLDPIRATE

    GOLDPIRATE New Member

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    Sorry Caput, it was a little tongue-in-cheek. Draghi imo, will go down the same tired route as both the US & Japan was my point. They will only open the door for gold to be viewed in a much better light again & it may be by 2015 years end?
     
  3. Caput Lupinum

    Caput Lupinum Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yeah but CBs print money to buy bonds. Not print money after buying bonds...also that would require Germany to relent on its strong stance against QE putting it at odds with the ECB and selling out the next generation of German taxpayers who have already been screwed over. I'm not too sure whether the ECB will blink first in a stare down with Germany.
     
  4. SovereignBuyerMelbourne

    SovereignBuyerMelbourne Member

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    I think the government as a whole isn't helping, particularly the senate who blocks any attempts to cut government expenditure.

    If china's economic growth is slowing, it means both of our major export partners including Japan will be buying less. Or do you think they'll try/be forced to prop up their economies by spending on infrastructure?

    Also once Japan begin operating their switched off Fukushima based plants that will slow down demand for things like coal, oil and a LNG.

    It doesn't look good though.

    What are your plans?

    Couldn't find the recent article I read about BHP on Iron ore. I remember it being pessimistic though, however I did find this.

    BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining company by market value, has warned of "flattening" iron ore demand from China, in the most bearish comment yet from any leading miner about the world's largest consumer of the commodity.
    Speaking at an industry conference in Perth, Australia, on Tuesday, Ian Ashby, president of BHP's iron ore division, said the company expected growth in Chinese demand for iron ore to slow to single-digits.


    construction activity has slowed during the past year as Beijing has tried to cool growth in the property sector, leading many analysts to believe that China's appetite for steel was set to cool.

    full article http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0a541586-7256-11e1-9c23-00144feab49a.html#axzz3L6oQAwga
     
  5. TheEnd

    TheEnd Well-Known Member

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    Yes China is slowing down but Japan will be buying shiploads of cheap LNG from Oz starting next year as they move away from nuclear power.....So maybe LNG is the next big export for Oz and maybe it will be enough to keep the ship afloat?
     
  6. renovator

    renovator Well-Known Member

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    I think the pertinent part is this

    " Ian Ashby, president of BHP's iron ore division, said the company expected growth in Chinese demand for iron ore to slow to single-digits."

    Key word "growth " am i the only one reading this correctly . ?

    Everybody freaking out about nothing ... The demand is still GROWING but just in single digits ....As long as demand is still growing who really cares ..When it starts to DECREASE i would be starting to worry until then you guys need to step away from the panic button. What grows in double digits for ever ? ....nothing lol
     
  7. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    In parallel with a slowdown in demand and price falls to levels that were not predicted by the industry, there has been a very large increase in output from the mines, and a number of new mine projects coming online over the next several years (at least, that's what I read) across the world. And China is also stockpiling at current prices.

    More troubling is that there are valid concerns about the accuracy of the economic data produced by the Chinese government. Things may be worse than advertised.

    Recent article on all the drama with iron ore:
    On the Chinese economy, its getting quite serious:

     
  8. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Regarding the OP.

    Something else to think about:

     
  9. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    What does iron ore and silver have in common?

    [​IMG]
     
  10. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^^^ missing a couple of years there from 2012 onwards.
     
  11. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Latest Iron Ore chart:

    [​IMG]

    and silver:

    [​IMG]
     
  12. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm expecting iron ore to sit below $50. Then go <------------------ SIDEWAYS -----------------------> for many years to come.
     
  13. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This is a very interesting article on the failure of Australian governments and the future. The relevant economic predictions posted below:

    http://arena.org.au/abbottville-by-boris-frankel/

    Concerning the concept of 'austerity' and end of the democracy that we're witnessing with TPP etc.

     
  14. SpacePete

    SpacePete Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Iron ore smashed down again. The price drops this year are not looking like a "temporary blip".

     
  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    That article is atrocious.

    The cure for our ills, as suggested by the author, is to increase the government's revenue and presence. When will the Left understand that their vaunted socialist ideals will never work out. Marx was an aberration, his philosophy that humanity would be better served by moving on from capitalism (which he acknowledges as having improved the lot of man) toward a State based economy operating with a social agenda will not work and is a threat to liberty.
     
  16. -j-p-shmorgan

    -j-p-shmorgan New Member

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    Sorry, but socialism doesn't threaten liberty.

    Please enlighten me: 99% of new income goes to the top 1%.
    Explain how this is beneficial to the economy in ANY way...

    These corrupt bankers, and billionaires, and GREED will be the true downfall of the USA.
    The reason for recession?? Greed. Plain and simple.

    I'm all for capitalism. That's part of what makes America so great.
    However, when the money comes at the people's expense...it's time to rethink things.
    Tax the shit out of the rich for all I care. They can afford it.

    The middle class is shrinking while the rich accumulate more & more wealth.
    Meanwhile, our society suffers. It's not moral, right, or fair.
    Vote for Bernie Sanders in 2016...or God Bless America.
     
  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    A system that advocates the removal of private property is not a threat to liberty? :eek:

    Firstly, I question those statistics. But let's assume they are correct just for the argument, some of that income earned is either saved or put into capital investment - both practices are beneficial to an economy. Some is also spent on consumer goods, but this adds little real value as far as economic growth goes.

    Your angst is genuine, but you've left out the most dangerous threat to society - government.

    By "people's expense" I'm assuming you are referring to the destruction of our wealth via the manipulation of market rates? It's something we have no control over unfortunately.

    I'll rephrase the first sentence to: "Steal more money belonging to the rich for all I care", because that's what you are arguing for - and that is why socialism is a threat to liberty. And in regards to your second sentence, how much can they afford? Who decides whether they can afford it? Obviously whoever is appointed the adjudicator would need to possess near perfect knowledge on how to manage an economy or we would end up with a huge mess. :p

    Advocating theft from those who have wealth and redistributing it to those that don't is moral is it? And right and fair? :/

    And who the hell is bernie sanders and what has that to do with the debate?
     
  19. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Shiney I'd accept a lot more of your arguments if there was some sense of "noblesse oblige" in society, but greed and selfishness render many of your arguments moot in the real world. The industrial revolution and WW1 ended all that.
     
  20. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    The world I inhabit must be different from the one you do. The vast majority of my interactions with other humans are not based on greed.
     

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