Is this it? Is the Aussie economy headed into recession or worse?

Its the perfect storm of:

* Falling commodity prices
* Plummeting AUD
* Successive quarters of net national disposable income contraction
* Weakening corporate profits
* Falling government tax receipts
* Stagnant or declining real wages
* Falling terms of trade
* Real GDP going backwards
* A failing government with an ideological aversion to stimulating growth
* Trans-pacific / free-trade agreements that will curtail competition and innovation
* Abdication of national self-determination to multinational corporate interests (TPP agreements again)
* Ageing population
* Exodus of manufacturing industries
* Very few areas that offer the potential for future economic growth
* Growing disillusionment from the increasingly disenfranchised younger generations

Are we fucked, or are we fucked? Or should I drink the Kool-Aid and go back to watching TV?

 

I think 2015 after everyone has spent all their money on xmas and the holiday season we will see a sharp decline in spending and RE industry will flatten off and maybe even go into decline. Then we will need to sit and wait for 2016/17 when the car factories close and see what damage that does to the unemployment rate. If we are not in a recession by then i will eat my words.

 

It'll be easier to call in mid 2015. But it could very well be the beginnings of another 'recession we have to have'.

 

lower AUD stimulates the local economy so point 2 on your list is invalid so I stopped readying as its probably all incorrect.

 

I think the FTA was and will be a good thing for the Australian economy, and had some of the budget measures actually passed I think it would have helped turn the structural deficit into a surplus.

Apart from that, I agree that the tone of your perfect storm list echoes my feeling about the Australian economy.

Especially considering that our two biggest export partners China and Japan face slow/poor economies, which will only make the trade deficit worse.

However the Retail numbers were released today, I think there is some good and bad in them though.

''Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed Australian retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4 per cent in October to $23.742 billion.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected retail sales to lift 0.1 per cent in the month.

However, the lift paled in comparison to the the solid 1.2 per cent rise posted in September,''

The article I was reading by the way attributed this to the iPhone 6.



''In the month, department store sales rose 2 per cent, sales of household goods rose 1.4 per cent, while sales of clothing, footwear and personal accessories increased by 1.1 per cent.

This was offset by a 2.1 per cent fall in turnover from cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services.''

I would imagine the first thing consumers do when facing a poor economy is cut out the unnecessary luxuries?

If consumer confidence remains this way then yes I would expect the economy to worsen.

''Following the release of disappointing GDP figures yesterday, Mr Hockey repeated his call for shoppers to spend big over Christmas.

"Not just for Santa Claus but for Australia," he said.''

lol

 

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utpXXwl6cGc[/youtube]

 

Speaking of turtles.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_17Krhuwbc[/youtube]

 

You stopped reading at age four and its been sideways ever since.

 

Illustration:

 

hahaha EPIC illustration mate!

 

After a bushfire there's always new growth.

 

I read a lot and am quite well researched on most current issues.

 

I wish you would read your own posts before you hit the submit button & correct the spelling mistakes

 

too busy to worry about such trivial matters, that dont affect the underlying message;

I cnduo't bvleiee taht I culod aulaclty uesdtannrd waht I was rdnaieg. Unisg the icndeblire pweor of the hmuan mnid, aocdcrnig to rseecrah at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno't mttaer in waht oderr the lterets in a wrod are, the olny irpoamtnt tihng is taht the frsit and lsat ltteer be in the rhgit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it whoutit a pboerlm. Tihs is bucseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey ltteer by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Aaznmig, huh? Yaeh and I awlyas tghhuot slelinpg was ipmorantt! See if yuor fdreins can raed tihs too.

 

We need a wake up call before things get much worse. Our most pressing problem is that the Australian government is now demonstrably in full blown denial and will not listen to any advice on how to prepare the nation and our economy for coming global changes.

Abbott is telling us that "the end of history's greatest resources boom was really just a short term blip", but...

The Chinese gov is pulling back from stimulus spending, infrastructure spending will be trending down, demand for Australian resources is dropping in parallel with a falling Australian dollar while prices for iron ore, coal and oil are collapsing.

China is now stuck in a "savage debt spiral" And is accumulating massive levels of debt faster than any other country in history. There are fears that their economic system could topple in the event of a shock.

China's golden age of rapid growth is over.

 

I agree with your sentiment SilverPete and wonder at the Australian stratergy to handle the problem. Simply put, the problem lies between Australia being a global player or a local economy. As we are about 12th on the GDP list, we are certainly playing the global game, but as the least populous of the majors, we are not self sustaining so because of this together with our isolation from other local markets, eg Canada to US, Korea to Asia, we rise and dip according to global circumstance.

I think the remedy lies in value added services. We sell wool, but have no major mills, we sell iron ore, but have no major steel mills, etc. We can't even keep Dick Smith Foods viable. I think we should be a bit more selfish and put Australian interests first before global considerations.

 

Yeah, fcuking oath !
The sooner those ford and holden dudes get out of our factories, the better.
Toyota can shove off too.

 

They'll borrow to mantain the illusion of prosperity and Australia will end up like Argentina, with its farms, mines, water and electricity owned by China.

 

Whilst this assumption is horridly pesimistic @ best, what if your right? What timeline are we talking? Imo, the Eurozone will begin with a stimulus of money printing once the bond buying does nothing for their economy. This & only this will usher in a rising gold price & as it has the unique properties of both a commodity & financial hedge, gold mine production is forcasted to only produce half the demand world wide in the coming years & CB's will not be able to stimulate growth so, gold may shine after all, along with those juniors ready to produce, whether a t/o target for big fish with floundering grades or too higher costs, as is being witnessed now. A few spec stocks are witnessing huge investors dumping shares & decimating sp for holders as the waiting game for financing & debt mandates streches patience of these substantial holders.

What I'm alluding to is I still see 2015-2016 as a period of rising gold prices that kick start mining production & takeovers.

Just my 2 cents worth....