Whilst they're still printing fiat like a blizzard of paper, money isn't dead. When the opportunists are bored of the metals spot dance and moved on, the fundamentalists will still be here. Gold has a 5000 year history and a 100% win record against paper. Personally, I like those odds.
Doesn't give me much reassurance. Within that stretch of time you might have 20 or 30 years where fiat can beat gold. You could have gold retreat for 7 years from here, and be accompanied by silver flopping down to 10 bucks, and the above still be true. It doesn't address whether we're in for a rapid deflation - a scenario that a number of long term gold/silver bulls have put up
Personally I don't think the bull market has even begun. What we have been witnessing is just the normal progression of gold preserving wealth as it has since Adam. When you see gold at ten thousand an ounce, you'll know your in a bull market.
These bulls disagree: http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120109/will-the-gold-bull-keep-running-in-2012.html Source:
Then my advice is to follow your convictions and sell when you are convinced it's had it's run is all I can suggest. For my mind, gold is for life regardless of what the paper market around it is doing. When gold is dirt cheap, that's not a time to sell IMHO - it's a time to buy. But to each their own.
Read back over this thread if you've ever given Dennis Gartman any credibility on the topic of gold - Said the bull market was over, then said he was wrong in january, now he's back to saying the bull market's finished again. I guess if this is the calibre of the opposition we can relax: Gold's Decade-Long Bull Run Is Dead, Gartman Says April/05/2012 "Bernanke delivered the fatal blow to gold's ten year bull market, according to Dennis Gartman. Gold has been in bear territory since the summer of 2011, when it topped out above $1,900 an ounce, with the latest post-FOMC sell-off inflicting irreparable technical damage, he says." http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/04/05/the-death-of-golds-10-year-bull-run/
This chart has probably been posted here a million times, but what the heck There's no sign of the gold price going exponential, so there's a while to go, so still in the 'awareness' phase?? If anything the Dollar is in a bubble, possibly at the Delusion stage of the bubble cycle, looking at the graph for US total money supply Source: market Oracle
I recently did some maths on Australian M3 money supply and gold. Since 1970 the Aus M3 has inflated on average at 11.59% pa. Gold in $A has risen on average 12.54% pa. Silver in $A has risen on average 13.45% pa. Source: http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/by-subject.html "M3 money aggregates" Perth Mint
