For 11 years in a row the corporate whore media says that gold probably/is at the end of it's bull run. Every year they are wrong. When the general consensus amongst the propaganda machine is to buy gold, then it may be near the end. I don't see that happening any time soon.
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/richard-russell/fabulous-gold-lecture From one of Richard Russell's letters, "... big bull markets almost always end with a speculative explosion... The gold bull market will not end with a fizzle and a whimper. It will end with intense speculation and widespread interest from the funds and the public. We haven't seen that kind of activity yet, but I'm convinced that a period of wild speculation in gold lies somewhere ahead..." Below, the profile of one of history's greatest primary bull markets (and it's not finished yet). Pierre Lassonde said something similar on KWN, and expects the manic phase to be driven by the asians, due to their propensity for gambling. So watch the action in China in years to come. However be careful, as back in 1980 my best friend's Dad (a Danish man) lost the family home, because he used it to get a bank loan, and then invested it all in gold. He lost their home and their marriage fell apart due to it. It all happened so quickly, and I'd set foot in that house many times. So when the speculative phase comes, it won't be all roses. Many gold investors will be completely wiped out, marriages will be destroyed, etc.
Yeah, there'll be many stories like that. Bubbles are always terrible for those who don't realise it's a bubble (and also for many who do). You want to be fully in before it's off and running and then you have to keep your head as it progresses. Hard thing to do as it will be exciting calculating your gains. I think anyone coming in at the start of Phase 3 just won't have enough experience in the market to be able to make the right decisions.
A lot of truth in this comment... It's interesting to note that the price of physical bullion didn't shift much in China this week. The price of gold Pandas dropped by maybe 50yuan ($7.30) on a 1.9oz Gold 2011 Value set ($3.84/oz)... As someone else pointed out, there seems to be a divergence between the physical and the paper.
And what about the fact that the present USD based currency is being massively devalued to bring in a new world currency..... This IS why both PM's are going to continue to appreciate much much higher....The bull IS NOT dead!
I'm interested in the timing of Phase 3. Can anyone point to the duration of the previous metals rush. Weeks of acceleration or months, or was it days?
I've been trying to figure how SDR's (IMF Special Drawing Rights) might change things moving ahead. Can't quite put my finger on it as I've taken so much new info in lately, although it keeps nagging at me that somehow moving ahead these could be used as a stealthy means of changing the game :/
You currency is measured against the SDR at a ratio decided by the IMF, instead of against the USD as decided by the market. (USD has lost reserve status). IMF decide the value of your currency, meaning the imports you can have and the cost of your external payments, by giving you the value in SDR as decided by them. Gradually they move all currencies to 1:1. Think how the swiss franc pegged to the Euro and lost safe haven status. Then it becomes purely electronic controlled centrally. You work. Your employer advises your salary to central control. They remove taxes and levies and fines and give you the balance. Similarly all transactions go through the computer programs, like a citylink account applied to your life. Australia will be an easy one to do.
I'm not that fond of the phases myself, I was just using it as a shortcut. I think we're talking about months yet, probably at least another year to go, but it's just something you have to keep on monitoring. When the public rushes in it will be a matter of watching announcements, IR's, ratios, etc. I think there are quite a few people on here who will be monitoring and posting their thoughts as we go. But I also expect this place to start going a bit crazy and euphoric so for newcomers it will be much harder for them to keep their head than it will be for us old-timers who have seen what's come before, studied a lot and know to avoid the crazy stuff. ie, gold will triples every 3-4 years or whatever gets said Exciting but nerve-wracking. But hey, that's life.
Actually I just found most of the answer http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-19776-keeping-the-faith.html
Gambling the family home in speculative scheme of any kind is a stupid thing to do imo. Excess income after expenses fine.
Yes, this has been mentioned in various places. Jim Sinclair and Martin Armstrong have covered this (near end of this podcast). http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/10/2_Martin_Armstrong.html http://armstrongeconomics.files.wor...omics-gold-11-yr-high-for-2010-09-17-2010.pdf Jim Sinclair, you might know, sold out *at the top* in the last gold bull run, and he's effectively the guy who caused the entire herd to panic, thus crushing the bull. People were fine one night, and when they woke up the next morning, they had been wiped out the night's action. Jim has often referenced Martin Armstrong's writings. It highlights the importance of knowing when to exit the gold bull. No-one knows for sure how it will all end, and a lot of smart people have expressed differing views. Some people say you won't need to exit, as gold will become "official money" again. Know that everyone will be watching the goldOW ratio, and this will determine when alot of people exit. If you sign for Mike Maloney's exit strategy advise, there are risks in this too. In the end, its down to you, but as you are in the market *now*, just keep soaking up the information (a continual process for all of us) and you'll be fine If I could recommend only *one* source, then my preference would be King World News; always stay up to date with whatever they publish. Eric King came out of retirement to setup KWN, purely in order to help people during this period. Here's an interesting discussion between 4 people about their ideas of when to exit the current bull run. http://www.financialsense.com/finan...s-mcewen/seventh-annual-hard-asset-roundtable
Hmmmm. Just listened to that interview between King and Armstrong. Very educational, tnx for posting the link to that. Made a lot of sense and helped me put together thoughts from the eu crisis and bond markets, the US dollar issues etc Confirms that gold should still be a great purchase and we may well continue to have many great buying opportunities over the next 12 months. Thanks again!
Gartman Schmartman. Here's a current stark example of Dennis Gartman's complete irrelevance to perceptions on gold. We're in a bear market he says with authority. Now a month later we're back in a bull market. He's a complete write-off on the subject, yet is still sought for opinion. It's absurd. And he still says, "We sold gold rather properly several weeks ago ..." ........ But just failed to buy it back quickly enough, is the line he's trying now. "Rather properly" ... lol. The only reason this guy's admitting it is because he has to. Too many people like Peter Schiff and Grandich would call him out if he tried to deny it completely/ Gartman Admits He Made a Bad Call on Gold By John Shmuel Financial Post / National Post Toronto Thursday, January 5, 2012 http://business.financialpost.com/2012/01/05/gartman-admits-he-made-a-bl... Investment letter writer Dennis Gartman has declared that he was wrong about gold. In his daily investment letter Thursday, Mr. Gartman officially reversed his outlook for gold, saying he now views the precious metal as being in a bull market. The new position follows a month where Mr. Gartman was the subject of some high-profile name calling from fellow investment letter writer Peter Grandich. Mr. Grandich called Mr. Gartman "one of the Three Stooges" of gold forecasting after the latter declared that gold was officially in a bear market. (If you're wondering, the other two accused of being in that trio are Jeff Christian of CPM Group and Jon Nadler of Kitco.) Mr. Gartman's reversal comes as he has failed to buy back gold below the price he sold it at a few weeks ago. He said that now that gold priced in euros has taken out its previous interim high, he sees the metal returning to a bull market. "The bear run that began in August has now officially ended, for the string of lower lows and lower highs is over," he said in his Gartman Letter. "This does not help us in hoping for/expecting/indeed demanding some weakness into which to buy, but it does give us 'permission' to become officially bullish once again." Whether his new position will be enough for Mr. Grandich to back down, however, is another question. When Mr. Gartman made the bear call last month, Mr. Grandich said he was willing to wager Mr. Gartman US$1 million that gold will hit US$2,000 an ounce before it hits US$1,000 on the COMEX. He even went as far as arranging for a law firm -- Lomurro, Davison, Eastman, and Munoz of Freehold, New Jersey -- to hold the funds in trust. For what it's worth, Mr. Gartman admitted his call on gold was a bad one. "We sold gold rather properly several weeks ago; we failed miserably, however, to buy it back, for although our intent was clear late last week, as we said it was our intention soon to re-buy that which we had sold, we've failed to do so," he said. http://www.gata.org/node/10850
I think silvers going to be the one that will shake us out. Personally im a little worried because i have 70% of my investment in silver. But if you follow the purchasing power rule, that even if the price drops, the prices of other assets drop faster. Might take a while for the effect however. Just have to hope we can stay the course.
