Is silver just a trap

Discussion in 'Silver' started by fishtaco, Mar 13, 2016.

  1. fishtaco

    fishtaco Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,293
    Likes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Perth WA
    Some stackers have fallen into by chance?

    I have slowed down on purchases because I feel I have plenty of it already and have spread that across a few fun to acquire silver coin collections but there just seems no end to the amount of silver and types of silver for sale around the world and all at a higher price than its true value.


    I started buying silver for my retirement perhaps a little bit of wealth that could quite easily fall under the radar of any future government money grabs if I in fact needed it under the radar.

    I intend to continue buying silver but my focus is now on smaller amounts of Gold which may also be a trap but what I purchase I can afford to loose in both silver and gold because I have never invested large enough sums to effectively feel any a loss if loss occurs.

    Are too many stackers expecting to da moon or SHTF or the collapse of money? because none of that is going to happen in the near future as I see it, much of the silver we buy is being sold to us by our governments anyway and the very same governments some are trying to hide or hedge against.

    I am fortunate in that silver spot has never for me been over $23au an oz but there is nothing to say that silver wont be the same price in 20 -30 years as it is today?

    I cant see myself ever buying silver if it reached over $28 au spot in a relatively short period and if it did skyrocket up who is going to buy it? especially higher premium silver? people may be forced to sell the higher premium silver at spot making little to no profit before the fear of a big fall after the rise.
     
  2. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jul 20, 2014
    Messages:
    5,739
    Likes Received:
    1,036
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Melbourne
    The same people that were buying it all the way up to $49 in 2011.
     
  3. fishtaco

    fishtaco Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,293
    Likes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Perth WA
    Once bitten twice shy and they aint shy about letting others know about it!
     
  4. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2012
    Messages:
    6,644
    Likes Received:
    1,502
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Northern NSW
    The bidders who bid it up there.
    Price doesn't get to any level without a willing buyer.
     
  5. fishtaco

    fishtaco Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,293
    Likes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Perth WA
    Not done with physical by silver stackers so they have no say either way really! Just because the silver spot goes up doesn't mean stackers will pay the higher price and dealers will only want to pay stackers spot for top premium if it goes up a lot and quickly.
     
  6. ninteno

    ninteno Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    644
    Likes Received:
    9
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    Germany
    the same people that did say S&P500 was expensive @650 points back in 2009 did buy today @2000 points and think its cheap. its all only sentiment thinking driven by financel analysts. once wall streets sentiment changes that paper investments are only a third party promise i am sure you will buy an ounce of silver @ $50 ++++
    in financial world nothing is based on fundamentals its all about sentiment.
    it will take a lot of time before a change in fundamentals will also change the sentiment
    but time is running and the fundamentels have strongly changed back in the year 2007/2008 when the financel system was short before falling.
     
  7. fishtaco

    fishtaco Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,293
    Likes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Perth WA
    Talking about "silver stackers" here who buy and stack physical silver not share market investors, everyone already knows paper silver ist worth the paper its written on and sentiment hasnt changed the price?

    If silver was sitting around $50 for a long period then I would buy at $50+ but chances of silver going high and remaining high are just the same as it going low and staying low or moving up and down with constant highs/lows
     
  8. 1for1

    1for1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2011
    Messages:
    4,154
    Likes Received:
    221
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    NSW, Australia
    Once silver starts rocketing up it will be "hot" when its sideways or down its not .. investment is always about what is hot... last year everyone "had" to be in Graphite.. this year it is lithium, silver is less fickle but once its up $1 a day and people start to notice it again you will be licking your lips and thinking about all the money you can make by buying it.. greed will see Silver once again give for a massive run quite simply
     
  9. Caput Lupinum

    Caput Lupinum Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2012
    Messages:
    4,656
    Likes Received:
    72
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    NSW
    I'm pretty sure I can liquidate my amplified paper silver/gold gains over the past two months (a lot more than the physical gains over the past two months) into fiat and covert it into more physical metals if I choose to despite the lack of collapse in the paper market tomorrow, but I'm more interested in return of investment which is of no interest to pure physical gold/silver bugs
     
  10. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2012
    Messages:
    6,644
    Likes Received:
    1,502
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Northern NSW
    One word - arbitrage.
    Arbitrage is the leveller. There is no disconnect.
     
  11. fishtaco

    fishtaco Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,293
    Likes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Perth WA
    I beg to differ! I dont see stackers swapping to other than silver because that is the "now " place to be sinking your money for quick profits! so with silver and "stackers" there "is" defiantly a disconnect.

    Define a Silver stacker? and it seems you will get a high % of failed stock market mum and dad investors trying to make a buck or two along with the wealth preservation silver stacker types!
     
  12. fishtaco

    fishtaco Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,293
    Likes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Perth WA
    I believe you get my point. :)

    But some seem to be falling into a physical silver purchase market and expecting almost instant gains! you read it here all the time, is this not just a silver trap for the stacker being thrown in amongst the profit making wolves professing to be fellow silver stackers?
     
  13. tiddleyetom

    tiddleyetom Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2012
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    Kiwi in Denmark
    I never thought id be paying over double as much for silver today as I did in 04'
    I was also buying gold in 04' at around $US400 per oz
    Check out the ratios, time to buy silver again me thinks
     
  14. fishtaco

    fishtaco Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,293
    Likes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Perth WA
    Are ratios really relevant to the future just because they seem relevant to the past?
     
  15. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2012
    Messages:
    6,644
    Likes Received:
    1,502
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Northern NSW
    I've seen it. It was rife in the 2011/12 spike.
    Stackers couldn't get their hands on enough phys at >$40 before it went to $100.
    The "now" place to be sinking cash when things are running hot is a well observed behaviour of any market, and phys silver is no different.
    This is not conjecture. There is already a precedent. Should silver ever reach the dizzying heights of a few years ago, people will scramble in again.
    As well, there is no disconnect, and never has been. The disconnect theories go in swings-and-round-abouts depending on retail supplies, and is all Zerotruth or Seekingbrains propaganda.

    As for arbitrage.... it is not the stacker using it to maintain pricing continuity, but it is there.
    100% agree.
    Ultimately a high % of stackers are very unsophisticated investors. They know it, so defend their positions with a lot of dubious assumptions and theories, as without these, they have little else to turn to.
    This characteristic goes hand in hand with the behaviour mentioned above - once their convictions look to be even a little bit confirmed, they tend barrel in like wild bulls without much consideration, and lick their wounds afterwards whilst still maintaining their position is correct.
     
  16. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2009
    Messages:
    4,631
    Likes Received:
    1,127
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    But some forget that... some of the bullion coins have done really well.

    One can't "generalize" the spot price and the price of modern coins, sure some haven't done so well but some have and as with any investment, if you look at the overall picture I'd say those who stack Perth Mint bullion coins are doing just dandy.
     
  17. Court Jester

    Court Jester Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2012
    Messages:
    3,502
    Likes Received:
    276
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    Gold Coast QLD

    or the early XAG rounds ;)
     
  18. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2012
    Messages:
    6,009
    Likes Received:
    10
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Everywhere...simultaneously
    For people looking to invest their money into something like a commodity or asset and make a profit on selling that commodity or asset, it's not so important what the current price is, but rather what they anticipate the price will be tomorrow or at some future point.

    For those looking merely to preserve the value of the money they've earned by exchanging it for pm's....the current price is also not so important. For these stackers, the viability (or lack thereof) of their current currency is far more important (but not the only thing they see as important).

    Current price says something about the relative value of an asset/commodity but it doesn't tell the whole picture of the value of that asset/commodity.



    .
     
  19. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2012
    Messages:
    6,009
    Likes Received:
    10
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Everywhere...simultaneously


    Or perhaps soon to be the early 2 oz silver Ultra High Relief Elemetal Mint rounds.



    .
     
  20. barsenault

    barsenault Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 26, 2013
    Messages:
    3,645
    Likes Received:
    291
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    United States
    Good debate. I was one of those sucked into the hype when silver was at 40'ish. And all sorts of silver coins were getting 'consumed.' I think they'll always be the crowd that thinks silver and gold are going to da moon. If it went from 15 to 30, then surely it will go from 30 to 60...greed sets in, and people will buy at any cost. I'm glad that I have an account like ownx.com where I may store a huge chunk of ounces of silver, and I don't have to worry about selling 1 oz of silver at a time. That will take a long time. I have a hunk of 1 oz kooks, and lunars and pandas, and larger size lunars too (2, 10, kilo). The bigger hunks are a bit better for me to sell, because the premiums aren't as large, and I get a big hunk of money when sold. Ownx.com is a place where one can have 2000 or more physical ounces, and at the hit of the button can sell them all back to ownx.com for cash. No long wait. No shipping. No eBay fees. No PayPal fees. Just hit a button, and done. However, if I wanted to take delivery, I can do that too. Not a bad gig, as long as what they say is true is true. LOL.
     

Share This Page