What you call 'My opinion', Mister Oldsoul, is actually nothing but giving data published by central banks and other market-running organisations. Two long term refinancing operations ended (paid back!) in jan and feb, and march onwards their 'new' QE starts. That's not creating more euro's, that's just extending existing loans. What media / vested interest / whoever touts, make of it, I don't care. Back in 2012, they claimed that a Fed audit revealed that the Fed lend out 16 billion dollars. It was a similar lie: that 16 billion was a not term adjusted sum of all the loans. Term adjustment made it exactly sized as QE1. Same bullshit from those that compare a daily trading volume with an amount mined/produced/whatever. Alike a product can only trade once a day. Another such lie: the 2 Australian banks that were so called bailed out by the Fed, with the sum again ignoring terms of the loans. http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/reform_taf.htm http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/reform_taf.htm http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/files/taf.xls There you find: dec 20 2007 - jan 17 2008 / WESTPAC BKG CORP NY BR / 90,0 million / Interest rate 4,650 okt 9 2008 - jan 2 2009 / WESTPAC BKG CORP NY BR / 1.000,0 million / Interest rate 1,390 nov 6 2008 - jan 29 2009 / NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BK NY BR / 1.500,0 million / Interest rate 0,600 jan 29 2009 - apr 23 2009 / NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BK NY BR / 1.500,0 million / Interest rate 0,250 apr 23 2009 - jul 16 2009 / NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BK NY BR / 1.500,0 million / Interest rate 0,250 In the National Australia banks case, the 1,5 billion loan lasted 3 terms thus 3 x 84 = 252 days. Yet, some claimed a 4.5 billion bail out. It was just 1.5 billion, pay back postponed 2 times. Not any moment, did the economy see more than that 1.5 billion. If I lend you a dollar for 1 month, or for 3 months, you only gonna be able to spend a single dollar. Not 3. Central bank data shows that QE's are scams. Quantitative Easing on balances that aren't spend / lend out. But some want people to believe it is all new money spend on whatever directly. Because they want suckers willing to pay higher prices.
I have no interest in Australian economics or banking. I like and respect the Australian nation but compared to the Euro, Dollar and Yuan it is a bit player in global economics. There are 500 million people in the euro economy. That you disagree with 'The Economist', 'The Financial Times' etc (we're not talking MSM trash here) on the fact that Euro QE caused the Euro to nosedive against commodities, PMs and other currencies, the Swiss depeg, Sweden etc when time wise events correlate exactly makes your analysis a bit too tin foil hat for me. This caused silver/gold to go up in Euros beyond spot price rises due to the fall in the Euro from October to the end of Jan - a real boost on the seasonal upswing. If you think allowing the likes of the Irish government, France etc to sell more bonds and fund more civil servants will not ultimately result in more currency in circulation that's fine. Roll on Greece. Bookies are offering 5/4 on an exit now Vs 3/1 previously. If you are in the Eurozone and are holding Euros I suggest you walk calmly to acquire some Gold at spot. I personally lack your faith that supply and demand solely drives gold (It does silver) - geopolitics does to. The only persistent factors are 1)Gold has gone from 300 to >1100 on increased money supply since the late 90s 2)Seasonality drives non 'fear' related Gold demand. I strongly recommend you re-read this from my earlier post. "Instead, the government or the banks create new money to be spent on specific goods and services. The demand for these goods thereby rises, raising these specific prices.". Note raises - that the assets are offset against the spend on the ECB balance sheet when the asset inflation occurs does not in any way remove the fact that the asset price rises in their own right create additional monetary supply. " "If relative demands and prices change in the Angel Gabriel model, they will change much more in the course of real-world increases in the supply of money. For, as Mises showed, in the real world an inflation of money is alluring to the inflators precisely because the injection of new money does not follow the Angel Gabriel model. Instead, the government or the banks create new money to be spent on specific goods and services. The demand for these goods thereby rises, raising these specific prices. Gradually, the new money ripples through the economy, raising demand and prices as it goes. Income and wealth are redistributed to those who receive the new money early in the process, at the expense of those who receive the new money late in the day and of those on fixed incomes who receive no new money at all. Two types of shifts in relative prices occur as the result of this increase in money: (1) the redistribution from late receivers to early receivers that occurs during the inflation process and (2) the permanent shifts in wealth and income that continue even after the effects of the increase in the money supply have worked themselves out. For the new equilibrium will reflect a changed pattern of wealth, income, and demand resulting from the changes during the intervening inflationary process. For example, the fixed income groups permanently lose in relative wealth and income.*46 " http://www.econlib.org/library/NPDBooks FMA12.html You may disagree but I think ultimately Austrian economics will assert itself as entirely vindicated as it did previously in the 1980s. Greenspan in his recent book 'the map and the territory' has a novel page on gold where he addresses it's dual use as a medium of exchange without counterparty risk which also has the property of a store of wealth without counterparty risk (my bold). The counter party in the case of FIAT is government (see Greece) and due to this it is a poor store of wealth Fiat is by necessity like many modern assets managed in a manner that makes it most fit for it's primary purpose - the payment of tax. Gold acts as a store of wealth independent of government. It is in the physical form the supreme mechanism of intergenerational wealth transfer in the event of unusually acquisitive government (e.g. the Soviet Union). Countries with expanding estate or inheritance tax regimes cannot intercept percentages electronically or at the point of legal arbitrage on the deceased's estate. In it's physical form it lies outside that. " You are entirely entitled to your view - from a speculative point of view I am neutral on gold - but I do not buy it for speculative purposes and if I did would trade it on seasonality, I buy it in it's physical form as a store of wealth and for intergenerational wealth transfer - in which it has no rival. Your supply and demand analysis are very interesting reading but are perhaps more pertinent when applied to the smaller silver market than your considerations on gold and forex.- I have no idea why you seem to take umbrage at a different opinion. I have no doubt when the Euro hoopla is done then it will emerge that a further QE in the US will be necessitated, just as the Japanese stepped in before the ECB started the process up. The strength of gold in January surprised me. I think 2015 is a year of currency wars and currency crisis which will support gold in the 900-1350 range and it should finish the year on the high end of that due to seasonal upswing. It's not worth trading the seasonal swings in physical. The low will be as always in Summer. If this does *not* occur it is extraordinarily bullish for gold. I'm very happy to acquire it at anything 150 dollars either side of 1150. As regards trite comments about 'shooting messengers' at no point did I do so - your interpretation is an opinion - a vast array of economists considered the Euro viable prior to it's launch and a minority did not - these are and were exactly that - opinions not facts as is your interpretation of the very complex ECB schemes referred to under the umbrella term of QE.
You can talk about metal properties all day long, a price is driven by people that buy and sell it, any price is. Data indicates what those people do, which is: 1) Quantitative Easing was, and still is, a story in the sterile world of bank reserves accounts at central banks, one can create 12345678901234567890 dollars as a series magnetically oriented particles on a platter, if they just stay there unused, then only expectations of usage can drive other prices, expectations later on killed by deletion of the figure. 2) Selling gold again more. Just to expect, everything used as storage of value is bound to later on undo the price trend it has caused before. ETF's bought 2634.8 tonnes gold during 2002-2012. They sold 1039.1 tonnes gold during 2013-2014. They aren't sold out yet, just like central banks didn't return to net selling again yet. Coin and bar demand dropped from its 1766.1 tonnes peak (2013) back to 1063.6 tonnes in a single year (2014). You claim "Gold acts as a store of wealth independent of government." Well lol, if governments sell thousands tonnes gold at low prices, buy thousands tonnes gold at high prices, as to inflict speculators less ounces and less fiat, how "independent" is the gold price, and thus its storage of value role, from governments? "Gold acts..." is nonsensical. It's a dead metal, it does nothing, it gets bought, and it gets dumped again, with the last ones doing it the biggest losers of 'wealth'. Fiat, is not different. Any product that is used as storage of value, is a zero sum market. Only changes when people would dump it in the ocean or so. So far that isn't the case for gold, for waste it is, in a degree. And that you say to have no interest in Australian economics or banking, is just irrelevant. It wasn't about Australia economics or banking, it was about misleading people about lending figures / quantitative easing, where the misleaders add up loans regardless their terms, making it look like 3 dollars were lent for 3 days instead of 1 dollar for 3 days. I gave an Australian example case of this, and instead of following the subject, you chosed to talk about Australia. I can give example cases of some dozens countries, see the TAF program list, and you can then say that you have no interest in all the countries, as to evade showing interest in the false summing up of the loans.
You are not listening. Tax. DIRT tax, capital gains tax, inheritance tax, gift tax, withholding tax, bail in tax. Tax. A store of wealth with no counterparty risk from government or banks, brokerages or solicitors executing wills. Intergenerational wealth transfer. Let's take a million Euros and place it in a fund, bank account, land etc. Now take a million Euros and place it in physical gold dumped in a hole. Which one will your grandchildren receive most free of government and other predatory deductions. FYI I found the whole doom/apocalypse spiel that caused people to buy six years ago and the corresponding bull spike both irritating and nonsensical. I don't know how many countries and currencies have vanished in my lifetime and indeed will again including the Euro and Dollar - but as with the debasement of Roman coinage it will probably be a slow process that spans several lifetimes. As I said art and antiques can also be useful. Gold demand is driven massively by geopolitics and in the case of individual small investors by fear of the counterparty risk in government/banks being untrustworthy. See Greece and Cyprus. As regards the Euro/Sterling/USD/Yen they all have massive dysfunctions that make them poor stores of wealth. I am sorry you did not try and address my point regarding QE causing market distorting price spikes in specific asset classes and the monetary effect of this. I posted it twice. Please consider it in your next reply.
Gosh, never seen so much thick text in any other thread here on SilverStackers! Anyway - April might be the next good time frame for cheap gold 'n' silver. I think :/ If not even the ECB's money-pumping will push gold up, then what will?
Hi there sterling-nz, Martin Armstrong has always said that the Euro could not survive. Here is a report of his from 2010 when he was still in prison. He had been in prison since early 2000's so his access to up-to-date info was limited but it didn't matter. I will dig up his report from 1998 before he went to prison.Sovereign Debt Crisis Solution: by Martin A. Armstrong March 9, 2010 I am writing this because it is urgent. We are entering Phase II of the Debt Crisis. When the Euro was being born, a special commission came to my London lecture by special request. I explained they had to adopt the original fed model so that each country had its own interest rate. That they adopted, just as the 12 branches of the Fed at first had a separate interest rates to manage capital flow. But now the EC is in a dire position and a debt crisis at the Sovereign level is starting to materialize. This will spread to US/State debt and the CFTC move to limit currency trading by the public from 100:1 to 10:1, can cause a liquidity crisis that backfires, magnifying everything. Default < Euro > Civil Unrest This is the simple European model. Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland are trapped. Their interest rates will rise and cause only an outflow of National Wealth. They have no way to address the problem that is accumulative. I have burned my brain raw trying to come up with a solution. But there is only one: A complete restructure that is a debt for equity swap. Debts will never be paid and Interest expenditures are the greatest transfer of wealth in history. This is causing rising taxes in all areas from Europe to the US suppressing economic activity, fueling higher unemployment and civil unrest. Western Society is falling apart. I have received a letter from one member of the House of Finance Committee asking to please submit suggestions. Please forward this to politicians everywhere. 1) We freeze all National Debt 2) We issue coupons whereby the debt will be redeemed for local currency to be invested in the domestic economy debt or equity. 3) Each Nation then establishes its own currency pegged to the Euro. The US debt is swapped to coupons that may be spent domestically. 4) All direct taxation must end, NO INCOME TAX, GIFT, INHERITANCE, CAPITAL GAINS or PROPERTY TAX. All local government funds itself by Retail Sales Tax. 5) Federal Government prints the cash needed instead of accumulative deficit each year as a % of GDP. Add up interest paid 1986-2006, the US debt other than interest would have been less than $300 billion. Printing if controlled will not be a fiat nor hyper inflation. We need a steady growth in money supply to expand and keep up with population. These are basic cornerstones required to stop the cycle of economic implosion. If we do not act, civil unrest will explode. The current choice is Default or Higher Taxes and Civil Unrest. Property taxes have jumped and collections are up over 40% in all major states passing 50% in Nevada, Wyoming, Kansas, Michigan, Louisiana, Virginia, Florida and Vermont, as well as Hawaii between 2001 -2007. Now taxes are rising because of foreclosures that suspend tax revenue. I have done my best to try to help. I have clearly paid the price. As Europe weakens, The Dollar, Dow and Gold would Rise. When the debt concerns then turn to the US, the Dollar will get hit only then. Someone has to step forward to save us or we may be doomed. It's time to wake up for this is the future of our children and their children at stake. All The Best Martin A. Armstrong March 9th, 2010 Posted by Russ at 7:52 PM 2 comments Links to this post Labels: Debt Crisis Solution by Martin Armstrong March 2010 Posted by Russ at 9:51 PM 1 comments Links to this post
http://profitimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Armstrong-Forecast.png This is the only link to the report I found at short notice. I will keep looking.....as you can tell I am shitty at linking info...
Ah Martin Armstrong the new born deflation guy. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong "According to the New York Times, "Over the years, Judge Owen would revisit the contempt order every 18 months, guided by the federal statute. He repeatedly said that Mr. Armstrong was motivated by greed and was awaiting his release from jail to retrieve the $15 million that the government said was missing. According to lawyers who worked on the case in the early days, the financier's headstrong manner irritated Judge Owen almost immediately."[9] On August 17, 2006, he pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy.[2][10] He was sentenced on April 10, 2007, to five years in prison" "Using his theory that boom-bust cycles occur once every 3,141 days (the number pi multiplied by 1000), Armstrong claimed in 1999 to have predicted the Nikkei's collapse in 1989 and Russia's financial collapse in 1998" (my bold) You listen to this guy and think he's a serious economist who predicts the future..... I thought you might have been referring to someone like Nigel Lawson? Stunned. The guy did time for fraud.....3141 days....LOL Have you considered alternatives? [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fijL0yiFwk[/youtube]
You just keep going following Wikipedia, New York Times ...Fox News etc. Proof is in the pudding....Armstrongs 1998 forecast was spot on....best you take some time to read it amongst other reports and form your own opinion and not the words of others. For your info....Armstrong has gold going down to the $1000 mark at least, possibly the $930. This has been the case for many years. He has never changed tack on the Euro in over 16 years. It is dead. He was one of the few 4 years ago that clearly stated that the Dow was going to an all time high when all looked lost. He also explained the capital flows and the falling confidence in the Euro zone and the Euro that would drive the capital flow to the Dollar and the Dow, regardless of the domestic situation in the U.S.. I can give you a lot more if you are interested. If your mind is closed about it all then let me know so I won't bother you in the future.
Quote: According to Armstrong's allocution, after he suffered "some millions of dollars of trading losses," he decided "not to disclose to investors that . . . substantial losses had been experienced in this trading of futures. And we did not disclose it." http://www.sec.gov/litigation/opinions/2009/ia-2926.pdf "In a nutshell, Martin Armstrong was a confidence trickster, if not a fraudster for which he was accused. Martin Armstrong was also a bad trader. A very very bad and inept trader. And Martin Armstrong committed fraud to cover up his bad trades. And then he committed more trades to cover up his fraud. Most in Nikkei and Gold. Despite the laughable ineptitude with which he implemented his "strategies", by most accounts he was smooth, suave and authoritative, in a way that encouraged people to entrust to him their money." Cassandra Does Tokyo: The Enigma of Martin Armstrong http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2006/08/enigma-of-martin-armstrong.html Stop listening to convicted con men who want to sell you DVDs at 29.99 and base their careers on claims to have predicted things and want to sell you 'top secret' newsletters. Please. I looked though the about page on his website. It does not mention him having an undergraduate degree in economics anywhere or indeed mention what qualification he attained in his youth. Maybe you could email him and ask. It's always interesting how many commentators who sell newsletters cling to the edge of the PM world as self promoting economic advisors. They always have extreme price views and the kind of doom laden economic prophesy that is not out of place on survivalist forums. It's also amazing how many would have their CVs thrown in the bin if I were hiring them for a job.
