I've never been more bullish on gold than now But surprisingly it seems however, it's struggling. After the Draghi speech, it didn't shoot that much up. Are we going to see lower prices now in February-March or is the bigger dip going to happen later in April-May-June? I'm asking, because I'd normally expect a massive rise in March as the ECB engages into the money-printing. Logically, I'd think March would be the month when it shoots up. So, are we close to the bottom now? Or is it coming later? (Before it shoots through the roof...)
My chart analysis shows that sub-1,200$ will come; and it may be just a few weeks away. Many online bullion dealers are offering specials now; usually the behavior means lower price ahead; this scenario played out again and again.
LBMA forecast. http://www.ft.com/fastft/269472/gold-seen-1211-2015-lbma-survey Gold will remain broadly flat this year and average $1,211 a troy ounce according to a survey by the London Bullion Market Association of 35 analysts. The yellow metal will trade in an average range of $1,085 to $1,356 during the year, according to the survey.
Only difference is how the fx will be. Spot could go down but if the US dollar gets stronger, means nothing unless you're in the US. :/
Gosh... You're all so bearish just when I grew bull horns I was expecting the ECB's money-printing to ignite the bull market. And then it falls just when I least expect it.
Gold futures report, Online Dealers Special and recent short interest; none of them supports higher gold price. We might see $1,085 gold price soon.
I hope it keeps going down all the way to $1000usd. Lol. Ive been itching to buy but im not liking the current price.
Why not? It was $400 10 years ago. $900 in 2008. Other / general prices didn't triple during the last decade, why would gold be different? Silvers price already hit 2008's figures, logical assumption is then that gold will just follow, just like it followed silver during the 2004-2011 trend. Looking at historical supply/demand figures, it's better to suspend stacking gold when central banks net buy it. (year / tonnes sold / avg price) 1997 326 $330.98 1998 363 $294.24 1999 477 $278.88 2000 479 $279.11 2001 520 $271.04 2002 547 $309.73 2003 620 $363.38 2004 479 $409.72 2005 663 $444.74 2006 365 $603.46 2007 484 $695.39 2008 235 $871.96 > 5558 sold = -463.167/year --- 2009 34 $972.35 2010 -77 $1224.53 (move selling > buying) --- 2011 -455 $1571.52 2012 -544.1 $1668.98 2013 -409.3 $1411.23 2014 -477.2 $1266.70 > 1885.6 bought = +471.4/year We know what happens when a buyer becomes a seller. The demand from the buyer disappears. The sale of the seller appears. Double price effect. Ignoring the 2009-2010 transition years, central banks have now 3672.4 tonnes gold more to sell. They will do so everytime they see speculators like us selling back to their fiat, in order to inflict us less fiat just like they inflicted us earlier less ounces. Things to ponder about on the gold market!
Personally I don't expect to see a drastic rise in gold. It should finish the end of the year at the 1275 - 1350 range all things considered. It may dip down to 1150 again but will quickly recover from that position. The premiums and costs associated with buying/selling small volumes of gold make it nonsensical to trade physically actively in this kind of range based on minor price fluctuations like 100 USD. I think the people citing 'gold was once 400' are dead wrong on many many levels. Firstly check the price of coffee now and ten years ago - repeat the exercise for anything you can think off that is worth money - note all have increased substantially - think about it - it is a natural consequence of QE. Let's play trading places - note OJ and pork bellies. Gold is not going back to 400 and there is no particular reason it should. I don't see gold crashing massively and staying there this year because of events in and near the Eurozone which will support it as will the globalisation of currency wars - e.g. to Sweden recently Source: Source: If you don't already own gold - given the purchase opportunities in the last ten years - bad news - you probably never will. It always seems expensive. Neither is it particularly worth trying to flip about an oz to make a tiny return. Wishing for a bear market in Gold is a fools errand. The situation in geopolitical terms is extremely precarious as the Kremlin slips back on imperial ambition again - far more than in 2001-5 and the EU has not been in such a deep crisis in its entire history. I expect it to rise measurably over the next five years. However if it stays flat and matches inflation on average I will be perfectly happy as it will have carried out it's intended function. It will not be readily available for physical purchase when everyone is seeking it. I bought no gold at any point when it exceeded 1200 and climbed to 1900 as I am not in the speculation game. I began accumulating again for the first time in many years when it touched 1150 - 1100. It will not go below 900 unless peace on earth occurs magically for the first time in human history. Silver has *always8 been a highly speculative and entertaining buy. Gold is the fear index. That is all.
The ECB didn't print money, didn't even create more money electronically, all it did was extending 2 existing loans (the previous 'QE') of 2011 and 2012, whose term ended last month / end this month, with the new monthly program replacing the two LTRO's. If the same happens as the previous 'QE', then the recreated money will just be destroyed again. By now, after over 6 years, speculators ceased to believe this 'QE' scam, me included, so expecting bull market ignition, well, they became wiser, I think.
If this was the case then why did the Euro drop against all other currencies and gold and silver leading up to it being announced and stay that way? The Euro fell for six moths in anticipation of the QE bond buying and the Euro has stayed down. PM holders gained massively from this over the period and if you held euros vs gold, silver or the dollar than you lost out. If ECB QE and the new factors in it what did, alien invasion I missed or something?
