Is Australia In A Recession?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by ozcopper, Jul 11, 2019.

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Is Australia In A Recession?

  1. Yes

    20 vote(s)
    64.5%
  2. No

    11 vote(s)
    35.5%
  1. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    Australia Is In A Depression
    There, I fixed that for you. _JLG.
     
  2. Stoic Phoenix

    Stoic Phoenix Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You worked too hard for that 0.5%.
    All I did was phone my bank last week and got .7% off.
     
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  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    A quick scan of some items on ebay:

    1. Long sleeved women's Xmas jumpers $19.94 each
    2. Unimac nail gun $159
    3. Perth Mint 1oz Ag minted bar $35.95

    Money is the unit of property that is used as an index to compare the price of goods. Without an index of "value" it would be impossible to compare different goods and decide what to buy in order to meet our infinite needs and desires ie marginal utility. As humans we have an insatiable and natural desire for goods in order to meet our needs but we have limited resources, so as a result, we cannot meet all of our needs and desires ourselves. We have gone a long way to solving this issue by trading. The division of labour allows us to concentrate on producing goods and services that we do well in order to trade the excess with others who have a comparative advantage in the production of other goods.

    Now, only primitive societies barter property such as cows for pies or shoes for eggs as it's inconvenient as a general rule and creates a lot of transactional friction. Advanced societies rely on exchanging another form of property - money. It's fungible, easy to store, is able to be spent easily and is generally recognised and trusted. And just like in more primitive societies where hunters traded their excess meat for spears, or goat herders traded goat's milk for cheese or jewellery for their women, individuals in society also produce in excess of their most basic needs and desires, and this excess takes the form of the property known as money.

    So when we have more money than we need we are faced with a choice, spend it on goods that we might not really need or lend it to others so that they can either spend it on goods that they might not really or invest in capital goods in order to improve productivity which enhances the wealth of society. But why should I give my money to someone else? Where is the incentive to save the rewards of my excess production when I could just blow it all on his and blow?

    The answer is interest. Interest is the price a borrower is willing to pay another in order to satisfy their current needs or desires and for the lender to delay their current consumption in order to satisfy their needs and desires at a later time. It is economically advantageous to be able to either bring forward future consumption to the present by borrowing eg use a credit card to pay for a dental procedure, or to delay current consumption for the future in order to buy even more goods later lend someone $1000 now in the hope that it will be worth $1300 in 5 years time once they've paid their loan off.

    Nothing criminal about charging interest. It is both natural and proper. For without interest, we would consume everything we produce in the now.
     
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  4. harry_mr

    harry_mr Member

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    Shiney you need to include in your description, money or goods used as money should be something slightly rare for without this there is little desire for it, as well it should demonstate a store of value. Today's fiat lacks both of these properties due to manipulation from central banks and governments. Interestingly gold meets both of these properties. Fiat starts off holding these properties and works but is easily manipulated by the powerful over time.
     
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  5. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Rather than "rare", I would say "in limited supply". As opposed to the inflationary monetary policies of our central banks.
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2019
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  6. Stoic Phoenix

    Stoic Phoenix Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    There is a depression in your head where your brain should be.
     
  7. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    No where near recession. Times are good basically only the lazy, or welfare scammers can’t get jobs.
     
  8. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    Two questions:
    1) Are you out of kindergarten yet?
    2) Do you ever have anything intelligent to say?
    Before answering either of those questions, please TAKE YOUR HAND OFF IT, it must be getting sore by now.
    STOIC.jpg
     
  9. Stoic Phoenix

    Stoic Phoenix Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ Thanks for verifying my assertion.
    If you think Australia is in a depression you are exhibiting an absolute lack of understanding or comprehension of fundamental economics akin to that of a slack jawed yokel you nut job.
    Rather than try to be funny which you clearly aren't lets see you try to justify your comment with something resembling logic. (I won't hold my breath)
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2019
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  10. milled

    milled Active Member

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    Australia is nowhere near economic depression if the traditional meaning is the benchmark comparison

    Have we even had two quarters of negative economic growth?

    Banks have not collapsed. Where are the soup kitchens?

    The only major market where RE is falling is Sydney and for good reason.

    The more likely issue for many is that the cost of living for many, taken to include the cost of accommodation, has risen faster than income for a sustained period.
     
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  11. Davros10

    Davros10 Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Got me baffled. What are your plans for the weekend?
     
  12. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    Looks like a bit of cross-dressing and going to the YMCA for the price of an ounce of silver.
    WINK..JPG
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2019
  13. prospect

    prospect Active Member

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    Hold your horses JOHNLGALT, the depression is just around the corner and will hit most Aussies unawares like a bolt of lightning
    including a lot of blind people on this forum, I am sorry to say.
    To those of you on here who think that the unemployment rate is 5% and that only the lazy dole bludgers don't have jobs, I have a cheap
    harbor bridge I can sell you in Sydney.
    According to Roy Morgan, the true unemployment rate is over 10% so the Government figures are bogus.
    So if they lie about the unemployment rate, then they are probably lying about the GDP figures as well, which means we are in recession already.
    Which would make sense as to why they have started to panic and cut interest rates monthly now.
    The Reserve Bank would not be doing that unless the economy was in dire straits.
    And to those of you on here who think that Australias 4 large banks are as safe as houses and that your money in them is secure, thanks
    to the government guarantee, you are going to get one hell of a shock.
    During the GFC in 2008, a couple of Australias 4 large banks needed emergency liquidity from the US Federal Reserve to stop them
    from getting into financial difficulties, so imagine what will happen when the new worse GFC hits.
    Anyone who still has large amounts of their wealth in the banking system and other paper assets instead of precious metals is soon
    going to get taken on a very unpleasant ride of a lifetime.
     
  14. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    What the longest depression ever.... few years? If so what’s the big deal?
     
  15. milled

    milled Active Member

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    Dole is almost worthless now. Full (old age or disability) pension with rent allowance brings it up to around 24K
    Yoof unemployment is 10-25% depending on the area.
    The definition of employment may be rubbery and capturing what should be termed underemployment.

    The RBA cash rate graph tells a story as does the long term government bond yield. Government debt is increasing but the yield on that debt through gov bonds looks meagre. It may become harder to borrow from the international financiers at such low rates. The debt has ballooned out to 90s recession levels. Our terms of trade are pretty good, post war level.

    Screen Shot 2019-07-14 at 08.35.28.png

    Screen Shot 2019-07-14 at 08.34.49.png

    Screen Shot 2019-07-14 at 08.35.46.png

    Screen Shot 2019-07-14 at 08.35.08.png
    https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/pdf/chart-pack.pdf?v=2019-07-14-08-16-19
     

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  16. President Trump

    President Trump Member Silver Stacker

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    Here is something I think about. Government debt is comparatively low and we might get close to a surplus. This provides a buffer against stocks but no-one expects this to last in an environment where unemployment is increasing and the economy is slowing. We know the government will increases spending because interest rates can't be lowered much further to stimulate the economy. This type of government spending is also pretty short term, a few years at most. Unfortunately the Reserve Bank also seems open to quantitive easing which will take the form of the Reserve Bank a) buying bonds from the Treasury to push funds into the economy, through more government spending and b) the Reserve Bank buying assets from banks to push funds into the economy as banks look for a home for the additional funds they have from these sales. Of course this means more domestic lending and easier standards. It will also inflate asset prices. Australians already have the highest household debt to GDP in the world. At some point interest rates on this debt will rise. Yes QE initially pushes interest rates down, but it's a can kicking exercise. What happens next is that the australian dollar declines as international and local investors insist on higher interest rates because the dollar has obviously been debased. QE, higher government debt, a probable credit downgrade, can only lead to higher interest rates. Higher rates in Australia can only mean disaster. We have a generation of lenders that are hocked to the eyeballs and used to the lowest interest rates in history.
    I lived in the US from 2003 to 2008, it was pretty obvious in 2006 there were big risks building up. I would say the risks are more obvious here in Australia now. I really hope I am wrong. I am not looking for an economic disaster. I just don't see what door opens up and saves us here, I guess I hope for a turn around in the global economy that lets our resources save us. But frankly I can't see this happening.
     
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  17. jultorsk

    jultorsk Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Well - I've lived in periphery EU country on euro currency and through a "lost decade", essentially ten years of recession. It's not fun, frankly, nothing to wish for no matter your personal situation or financial aspirations. And reflecting on that experience, I'd say it does not seem to me Australia would be in a recession at the moment. In fact I'll take this economy all day for the rest of my life, to avoid suffering the uncompetitive, geriatric EU for a single day more. Just look at the tax rates in Europe, and imagine paying 20%+ of VAT on everything you consume (products and services). Lucky we're nowhere near those levels here.
     
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  18. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Look on the brighter side. Australia did well during WWII and the 80s before China imported anything. Australia has the geographic advantage, is uninvadable, has fertile farmlands, small population, and a stable government.

    Australia is a better off than Singapore and Singapore is better off than HK and HK is better off than China. This is why migration is from China to HK, HK to Singapore, and Singapore to Australia.
     
  19. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    but no water for those farmlands
     
  20. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Dam levels not looking good.
    No rain = game over. Lets hope NSW doesn't have another year like this year.

    [​IMG]
     
  21. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    The game was over months ago. I'm in a good rainfall area (new england tableland) and the town water where I live is nearly gone. (I live out of town and I have invested in my own water infrastructure, tanks and dam) it has not rained here to cause runoff since march 2017.

    I have plenty of water in my tanks and have never had to buy or use town water but still our council wants to levy EVERY ratepayer for water transport when the town supply runs out. They are in for a rude shock if they think rural residents are going to subsidise the town folk's water. Especially since they have been on 120L/person/day restrictions yet they have been using 205L/p/d.

    Water will be this countries biggest issue in the next 30 years.
     
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