Inflation

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by mmm....shiney!, Jan 16, 2021.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    You must be looking at a different 2022 to me.

    XAUUSD_2022-12-06_05-24-23.png
     
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  2. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    I know! That was my reaction too haha.
    Go gold!!!
     
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  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Go gold!!! And anything else I've got a position in!!! ;)
     
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  4. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Now you get it!
     
  5. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Japan, decades of QE and no correlation to CPI. Introduce a supply shock and hey presto! Inflation. 2 charts for those that still don't get it. ;)

    Screen Shot 2022-12-24 at 7.56.00 am.png

    Screen Shot 2022-12-24 at 7.55.48 am.png

    @Lovey80 :p
     
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  6. Michael Kay

    Michael Kay Active Member

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    Japan is a basket case, and is about as economically and demographically dissimilar to Australia as you can get.
     
  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    By what measure?

    It began its journey on the monetary/fiscal policy, demography, labour and wages paths decades before us. Current day Japan is the future for all Western democracies.
     
  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I'll just leave this here. For all of those that still don't get it. ;)

    Screen Shot 2022-12-24 at 11.19.05 am.png
     
  9. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    And a chart comparing comparing Australia to japan from the Legatum Prosperity Index 2021.

    Screen Shot 2022-12-24 at 11.33.03 am.png

    https://www.prosperity.com/globe/australia

    If anyone is looking for an actual basket case, you don't have to go far down the list before you come to Argentina.
     
  10. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    One metric is household (personal) debt, surely?

    Screen Shot 2022-12-23 at 9.59.55 PM.png
     
  11. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Happy Holidays y'all! :cool:

     
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  12. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Australia's total credit to GDP declined over the 5 years from 2017 - 2022, I'm not sure it's a valid indicator therefore. But consumer credit certainly is a contributor.

    Some charts:
    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    It's complicated and not nearly as simple as Friedman would like to believe.

    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/05/012005.asp
     
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2022
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  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    All of those charts look remarkably different to the one showing the CPI vs the RBA's balance sheet.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Joseph Wang argues that it was not monetary policy that caused inflation, it was fiscal policy.

    https://fedguy.com/credit-boom/

    Money money money:

    [​IMG]

    hhttps://fedguy.com/mechanics-of-a-devaluation/

    This in turn fills up the coffers of business.

    [​IMG]

    https://fedguy.com/mechanics-of-a-devaluation/

    https://fedguy.com/credit-boom/
     

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