Inflation

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by mmm....shiney!, Jan 16, 2021.

  1. Lovey80

    Lovey80 Well-Known Member

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    This is where you and I are on the same page. We both agree that monetary policy sees the rich get richer, we just disagree on the remedy.
     
  2. Lovey80

    Lovey80 Well-Known Member

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    wouldn’t most say that Burns caused the great inflation in the first place? Manifestly ignoring inflation indicators as “transitionary” and making excuse as to why certain prices rises are idiosyncratic until it was too late. Only then to have to reverse tac and tackle it head on? I think it was fair for Powell to take it easy in the beginning to blame supply chain costs as transitionary. No point stifling demand just because there is a short term supply issue right? But once the Ukraine war kicked off with the resulting sanctions and sharp rises in energy costs, the Fed had to move IMO.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...ng-fuel-on-the-fires-of-inflation-11621971073


    give me a recession over inflation any day.
     
  3. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes and no. Burns wanted to tackle inflation, but submitted to the pressure from Nixon. So really the government at the time was the issue, as they threatened to remove "independence" from the FED if Burns didn't play ball.
     
  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes and no. It stems from the ideas that yes, we must have perpetual growth in order for us to be increasingly wealthy. The Austrians measure wealth in the amount of needs/wants that are satisfied. Our needs/wants are infinite therefore our wealth must always be increasing in order to satisfy our needs/wants. Not to mention that there's billions of people in the world who need their standards of living brought up to where we currently are and that's not even accounting for future growth.

    And no, it matters where that source of liquidity for growth comes from.

    The Austrians get that bit right, but they're stuck in a time warp. More on that below.

    Now regarding the Austrian time warp.

    Productivity improvements are driven by population growth, increasing longevity of the population, technological innovation and availability of capital and credit. Population growth is declining in advanced economies, longevity is increasing but at the expense of population growth as we age, technological advances are becoming incremental in the main as opposed to momentous (nuclear fission would be a momentous change as an example, the computer was another) which basically leaves the only thing we have control over - credit. Growth has been fuelled by corporate credit for the past few decades, now that tap has been turned off.

    The impact of the availability of credit is now the main driving force of growth.

    My reference to Burns was political in nature. @leo25 clarified for me. I would say Philip Lowe had a Burns moment regarding Albanese's decision around the reintroduction of the full fuel excise levy. Not that we'll know.
     
  5. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Leo, the Hogue Deka CPM-20CV is pretty good too. Hogue are only recent players into the knife market but their products are pretty good.
    I buy quite a few from "Knife Centre" over in the USA, they have specials sometimes, shipping is fast and easy to shop plus they take the head-ache away re-customs etc.
    Here's a link
    https://www.knifecenter.com/find-the-best/Hogue Deka ABLE Lock Folder

    Edit On many occasions I purchased from the US, cheaper than Aussie suppliers and you don't have to wait 6 weeks plus the fake factor is eliminated.

    Edit 2
    Lastly, I just wanted to let folk know who are scared of sharpening knives that, those expensive hunting knives can be sharpened very quickly and accurately back to a makers edge. Check out the "Work Sharp WSBCHPAJ-I Benchtop Precision Adjust Knife Sharpener".
    Been a chippy for years; the above sharpener has brought a smile to my face.
     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2022
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  6. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I've spent many hours on Knife Center looking at stuff :). Those Hogue Deka look nice, but for the moment I'm done buying knifes. I'm still having a hard time explaining why i needed a Cold Steel Master Tanto 3V to the missus.

    The only extra knife i would love to get is the Rockstead HIGO II TI-ZDP. :D But i can't see that happening any time soon due to the price tag.
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2022
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  7. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    $1250 for the knife + ZDP-189 Stainless Steel = "Nice hedge" ;):D
     
  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Softer than expected figures, have a look at the building approvals data though.

    Screen Shot 2022-11-30 at 5.04.00 pm.png
     
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  9. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Its nice things are dropping slowly as to not alarm the markets too much.
    The slow game makes things much easier to swallow for the hodlers i bet. A steady incremental rug pull has its benefits for all.
    See, they DO care!
     
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  10. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Like sand through hands..

    BC5A3BB9-9ADE-46BA-B00A-A932B7A38DE7.jpeg
     
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  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    And these are popular amongst fringe dwellers I hear:

    Screen Shot 2022-11-30 at 9.09.27 pm.png
     
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2022
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  12. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe for the hodlers a medically induced coma for a few years to avoid the pain. They can wake up later when we arrive at Brandontopia.
    You know, after the transitory stage is over.
     
  13. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Everyone agrees inflation is happening. What they don't agree on is whodunit.

    The most recent numbers show prices up 7.7% over 2021. But for some items like eggs, health insurance and gasoline, prices have been rising much faster than that.

    Inflation can be an elusive foe: quietly making off with our savings and chunks of our paychecks and stealing away everything from vacations to favorite foods.

    But who let this thief loose on the U.S. economy? What is the source of inflation? Let's examine the clues and the potential culprits.


    https://www.npr.org/2022/11/29/1139342874/corporate-greed-and-the-inflation-mystery
     
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Interesting comparison between the US situation and the Australian, couldn't find a chart like the first for Oz but I reckon you can still make a comparison.

    Screen Shot 2022-12-01 at 7.58.06 am.png

    Screen Shot 2022-12-01 at 8.05.02 am.png

    Screen Shot 2022-12-01 at 8.08.30 am.png

    That's a significant divergence in the US. Probably suggests one reason why Powell has been more aggressive than Lowe in his guidance. :cool:
     
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  15. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ I would imagine the lower credit card debt in Australia is due to the increase amount of mortgage debt. In order to leverage up on a mortgage you have to reduce your CC debt otherwise the bank won't lend the same amount to you. I was amazed how anal banks where with cc debt here.

    Also the short blip in the house savings in Australia was an illusion, as during Covid lock downs people put more money into their offset accounts making it seem as if they had more savings/lower debt. But they had no intention leaving it there when things opened up.
    Give it another year and the savings ration here will be negative, as people are drawing down on their savings at a fast rate in order to maintain a set lifestyle.

     
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  16. mattyman174

    mattyman174 Active Member

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    I wonder what the graphs would look like for all of the "Buy now Pay later" facilities that have been popping up in recent years and to what extent consumers are utilizing them.

    I have no idea if those are counted in any way, I'm not even sure how they work in detail, since I don't even use them. On the face of it the scheme sounds just like how a credit card would operate.
     
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  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I don't think they're included
     
  18. mattyman174

    mattyman174 Active Member

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    Unlikely for sure.

    Given my anecdotal evidence of friends and acquaintance that I know use them, I would think they would make up a significant percentage, especially considering consumers already high proclivity for utilizing more traditional loan schemes already.
     
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  19. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  20. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Well its almost the end of 2022 and physical gold and silver has easily outperformed every other asset class by far and without even breaking a sweat.
    Not only outperformed but completely crushed it and the rising dollar barely budged it.

    PMs are the original gangsta.

    It works really well for saving what you dont want to lose!
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2022
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