Inflation

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by mmm....shiney!, Jan 16, 2021.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    @Real $, yeh nice, I'm DCAing into US shares occasionally still mainly dividend stocks eg MCD, 3M etc, the odd tech stock Unity, I'm out of the Oz market at the moment waiting to get back in to mainly growth stocks, still holding some BTC but sold my others and waiting to see what December and The Merge brings before lifting my exposure there again. The most prudent analysts are seeing a dip for BTC in December maybe down to $17000. The talk of $10 or $12 is unlikely IMO, BTC has weathered this financial storm well and the further we get into this macro winter the more upside potential there is I'm thinking. Timing is a mug's game I know but I think we have to pull the trigger before The Fed starts reducing rates if we want to catch the bargains.

    I'm not sure the guys at Alhambra will get it right with their calls, they also admit that but I have to keep an open mind and try to keep on top of the data available so a combination of patience and DCAing for me depending on the market.

    And I've got next to zero precious metals at the moment and unlikely to buy any in the next 6 months unless I have cash left over from the above activities, if I do it'll be gold not silver and it won't be physical.
     
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  2. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Im almost exactly opposite!

    Very little exposure in the markets, no cryptos and the rest in physical metals.
    Ive been dca a little bit into some miners but mostly stacking harder than ever and waiting on btc to 10 or 12k. And some cash in case for that fat double bottom in the markets that might come eventually.

    Im expecting a disastrous winter worldwide, overloaded unemployment system here in the US with mass layoffs and other issues this winter when im off work. Last winter could have been tough on us but we had a cash pile to get us by until my checks came through and it was a shitshow like usual dealing with the state employees.
    It allowed me to relax and chat on the web with you guys without any stress or worries and i paid my little amout of minimal bills before winter so no worries there.

    Same game plan for this winter for me except maybe much more excitement incoming to watch!
     
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  3. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Why not DCA into your proven favourites and save a little for the speculative for when you believe the time is right.
     
  4. Real $

    Real $ Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Always stress 1st the amateur nature of my investments but I've got enough time hopefully. I just chose Nasdaq ETF as it's got a great track record...last few years aren't best indicator obviously because of the "easy" money, something I didn't partake in :( lol. Aussie lithium and uranium has still got ahead so far and optimistically still have room for growth when things balance out I'm surprised how well they bounced back, also know it won't last long but should return again...the policies were committed to ensure cash goes Into the sector long term just imho. BTC I've looked into many times but can't find peace of mind there, possiblities are great unparalleled for profits but also to many uncertainties. CBDC makes me worry about coexistence and also effects upon our bank shares...combined with much ignorance of outcomes. Metals is where my passion lies and where I've been comfortable but decided I need to branch out, was stressing out with a basket full of the same shiny eggs. While it's childish I also enjoy the markets some reactions seem to make very little sense and its entertaining watching the rise and decline. Gold is a tier 1 asset for a reason and def where the major balance is weighted for "insurance" and because it's a beautiful thing ;)
     
  5. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Wall Street MBAs justifying their jobs:

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/futures-climb-after-recent-declines-wall-street-2022-09-06/

    snip

    Lol
     
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  6. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    The experts are so confused haha!
     
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  7. Lovey80

    Lovey80 Well-Known Member

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    Nothing to see here folks. The inflation is transitionary and temporary and has nothing to do with the central bank regulation of the money supply or government spending. Move along. Nothing to see.
     

    Attached Files:

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  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ correct. You're learning. ;)
     
  9. Lovey80

    Lovey80 Well-Known Member

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    Milton Friedman and Freddy Hayek would strongly disagree with you.
     
  10. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    It all comes down to perspective really, no different than the brown medicine water that flows through the streets of Mexico.
    What an American would say "made him sh1t his guts out" a local would consider a miracle cure for staying regular.

    My lil Cherokee wife is a wealth of knowledge with local plants and tells me that there are plants in our yard that her ancestors ate for contraceptives.
    To me that means that the squaws that ate those plants can no longer have babies.
     
  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Friedman was wrong:

    Inflation is more a social phenomenon than a monetary one.

    I like Hayek (Rothbardians generally don't), his theory on inflating and deflating private currencies is rather compelling and why I find some cryptocurrency projects aiming to do just that appealing. Hayek had a better grasp of the complexities of the market then Friedman and I would agree with him that when governments spend directly into the economy then that has an inflationary effect. However, most of the extra money that has been created by CBs (following Friedman's advice mind you) this past decade has not been spent into the real economy and hence it has not caused the spike in inflation. Social phenomena are responsible for that.

    I see iceberg lettuce are now $2 each and the size of a bowling ball. Oh the wonders of quantitative tightening on the availability, quality and price of foodstuffs. :p
     
  12. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It's both. I don't understand why people keep say it's one or the other... This forum is like Groundhog Day.

    But Friedman is correct in that long term & wide spread inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2022
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  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I agree. Accommodative monetary policy has led to inflation in the price of assets not consumer goods or services.
     
  14. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It's worth noting when China entered the global market it caused deflationary prices in general goods. CB's stupidly panicked thinking it was due to a reduction of money (instead of the obvious reduction of labor cost from china) and therefore stimulated the money supply.

    Atm due to lockdowns and China's extensive lockdowns and higher labor cost, this has caused inflation in general goods. CB's stupidly panicked thinking it was due to a increase of money and therefore started adding "resistance" to the money supply.

    Though unlike Volcker where he targeted the money supply and not the interest rate, Powell is targeting the interest rate and not the money supply.
     
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  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I can't find the data from Macrobusiness showing that only about 20% of prices for consumer goods/services are elastic, therefore targetting consumer behaviour as a means to reducing inflation is going to fail about 80% of the time, whether that's using interest rates or money supply as the tool.
     
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  16. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  17. Michael Kay

    Michael Kay Active Member

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    That's a pretty random commodity to choose. The devil is in the details - the Lockyer Valley has finally bounced back after the floods, and this time of the year is the season for iceberg lettuce. Strawberries are also in season. But heaps of other shit is still expensive.
     
  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I've been tracking the price of lettuce in this thread for months. ;)

    Aaah, so you're saying the ridiculous price for lettuce in the past few months wasn't because the RBA engaged in accommodative monetary policies? :p

    Such as?
     
  19. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    What's been happening over the past few months in the markets:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/12/sto...wall-street-awaits-key-inflation-report-.html
     
  20. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If only they made videos like this today. Probably the best video describing what CB's do, short and simple.

     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2022
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