Inflation

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by mmm....shiney!, Jan 16, 2021.

  1. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Mind you, I do believe the Swiss model is good as long as the society is sufficiently homogenous and obtaining citizenship is strictly regulated.

    I thought most (true) libertarians are advocating the 'night-watchman' state - i.e., that the state should only collect and use funds for protecting their citizens from theft, fraud and violence (be it an internal or external threat).
     
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  2. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Rates havent been this high since the global financial crisis.

    But we arent even in recession yet they say, much less a financial crisis. Brandon says go ahead and take the jab. Nothing to worry about.
     
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  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I really don't know much about Switzerland, but with 26 cantons, each with it's own independent constitution, loose Federal government with little centralised authority and 4 languages one of which is peculiar to one canton and weird to listen to then I'd say the Swiss are less homogenous than most other nations. Australia has a highly centralised Federal government, 1 language, states with constitutions that fall under the authority of the Commonwealth Constitution and a society with a tendency to demand homogeneity of thought and action from all of its citizens. It's probably more about a shared mindset the Swiss have based upon their respect for independence ie stay out of my business and I'll stay out of yours. Contrast that with other nations such as the US, France, Russia or Australia etc. Maybe modern day Japan is a bit more similar to Switzerland now?

    Hence why we advocate an irregular army. Then we have the moral dilemma of whether we should stand idly by while our neighbours obliterate each other or should we intervene to restore property rights? So foreign policy is probably best done through trade and business investment rather than at the point of a gun.

    Edited
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2022
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  4. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    FT:
    US inflation eased slightly in July on lower petrol prices
    The US consumer price index rose by 8.5 per cent year-on-year in July, a slower annual increase compared to June, as inflationary pressures eased on the back of lower petrol prices.

    US Jul Consumer Prices Unchanged; Consensus +0.2%
    US Jul CPI Ex-Food & Energy +0.3%; Consensus +0.5%
    US Jul Consumer Prices Increase 8.5% From Year Earlier; Core CPI Up 5.9% Over Year

    Screen Shot 2022-08-10 at 7.49.57 am.png
     
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  5. lucky luke

    lucky luke Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Perhaps there are two different dynamics at play? "Institutional" demand fs "Individual" demand? With very different motivations behind the demand? https://www.rt.com/business/561105-china-ramps-up-gold-buying/
     
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  6. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    On the food ingredients side again-
    The momentum of cost shocks has slowed and freight costs easing with petrol price. However, since our costs don't go up in real terms until we actually re-purchase product some price rises may not be felt for another 6 months where existing inventory is run out and restocked at the higher prices. So there will still be a lag-effect all through 2023 as it washes through. There is also the fact that as prices go up they will almost never come down until there is competition to re-tender.
    Makes me wonder if I might get front row seats to a deflationary crash as well... I will update when interesting. I'm sure we'll see gluts if demand slows. National pressure for wage rises though may keep the fire burning, and the cycle continues...
     
  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Basel III probably has a bit to do with the lack of demand institutionally for gold.
     
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  8. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Our little Walmart has 12 shipping containers for all the extra supply now and some great deals. Go Brandon.
     
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  9. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Mish Shedlock:

    https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-...crashing-so-what-it-doesnt-matter?post=363600

    I see lettuce is now down to $2.50 ea in Coles. Now, either that's because raising the cash rate worked and put downward pressure on consumer goods, or it's because the weather has improved and farmer's lettuce seedlings aren't doing the oz crawl down Lockyer Ck. Mind you, the ones on the shelves are about the same weight and size of a badminton cock.

    Going forward the drought in the US is expected to put further pressure on inflation and I'm not up on what's happening in Europe with the heat waves, and then there's poor old Africa. So we've got well above average instances of droughts, heat waves, flooding, a war in Europe, a health pandemic, energy cartels "profiteering" (I hate that word), China's economy imploding etc etc but I still reckon the popular narrative will be that QE caused all of it. ;)

    And we still can't buy commercial sized tins of spaghetti and today I found out that baked beans have joined the shortage supply.
     
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  10. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    DYOR

    Australian refiners like Bluescope who sell metals will go on a run.

    My thesis is based on continental EU states will halt selective power intensive industries like copper/iron/aluminium refining, so will need to import them from countries that are less impacted by sky rocketing energy prices.

    For example EU Auto manufacturers need steel,copper and Aluminium so if EU based refineries ordered to shut, than EU car manufacters will have to buy steel, copper or aluminium from outside of continental EU to keep making cars
     
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2022
  11. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    Unless fuel prices go up in which case the price of things in real terms goes up within hours.

    Fuel price goes up, bowser price follows within hours.

    Fuel price goes down, "oh yeah um, we have to wait until the underground tank is empty and we get more fuel at the lower price before we can lower the bowser price a tiny bit"
     
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  12. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  13. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Going to be a tough sell. Powell has more exposure and he says they do.

     
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I think the BOC is trying to make the point that they didn't print actual physical cash.

    They'll be pushing shit up a hill trying to refute the conservative politician's claim though. Even most politicians wouldn't be able to explain how QE works.
     
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  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    [​IMG]

    Douglas Terry over at Alhambra calls this "Powell's White Whale" in reference to Moby Dick. In their obsession with inflation they may well be fighting a battle they can't win. :cool:
     
  16. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The fed have put themselves between a rock and a hard place. Will Powell raise rates to 8-9% to control inflation or will the helicopter money return?
     
  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Maybe in the order of 3.5 - 4% and yes the helicopter money will return.
     
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  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Economic recovery on track according to Alhambra and no we're not in a recession:

    https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/09/01/goldilocks-calling/

    snip

    So, the question is how much longer do we keep our powder dry? I'd be really keen to see how this coming winter plays out in the northern hemisphere with Covid, energy and food shortages due to drought etc before I'd be confident to jump headlong back into the markets.

    Patience or start DCA in?
     
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  19. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    What market is he looking at? Maybe Russia?

    We dont have any of that here in the US.
     
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  20. Real $

    Real $ Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    My powder is in short supply...fired the guns to early :( DCA is a proven,time tested method. From a layman's perspective I've bought both growth and dividend stocks it's probably a shit method but I'm reinvesting all cash back into the principal and will continue to do so...Einstein said compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world? Who knows but timing is hard and I like the passive idea, more shares of company despite any conditions. If fundamentals are there history so far proven they'll rise again.
     
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