Inflation

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by mmm....shiney!, Jan 16, 2021.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Yeh, I was looking for some indication of what these offers could mean for the future.

    CBs are in full "no we won't have a recession" mode which everyone in the world except central bankers seems to think is BS. Markets are a bit more more bouyant over the past couple of days but I reckon it's just poor old kitty rebounding off the bitumen. There's noise about "peak inflation" but there's cash rate rises still ahead as CBs force more liquidity to drain, so I'll side with Joseph Wang in that there's more pain ahead therefore I'm not pulling the trigger and buying back in yet.
     
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  2. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Take the loan, and after fees if it less, get a big 4 bank term loan to match or put it in mortgage offset account and earn than pay back in full. For a few hours work not bad.

    Another spin on this:

    I have four Zero Annual fee CC with $0 annual credit card, ING, Bankwest, Citi/Coles, Amex Essentials, most are 5 to 10 years old)

    Plus also have three with $30 to $50 annual credit card, ANZ, NAB, WestPac.

    I get an occasional 18mth, 24months or 36 months 0% credit card balance offer from the above cards.

    So when the offer comes I load up a different card (usually my amex essential as that card never have zero interest offers) with my bills, the monthly spending like grocery, takeaways, toys and any other things I would have purchased and apply for the transfer from the offer card.


    Read the terms: Some offer is for once, other offers you can do multiple times until your offering card maximum.

    PS: Most CC I found will allow you to increase MAX Limit (I ask for the Max without credit check requirement - for me it is about $20,000) and the increased Balance applies on the Interest Free offer!

    At the end of Interest Free period I pay back in full. During that time, I have the extra cash in term depsoits but for those with personal home mortgage should put it into offset account.

    PS2: People might say Zero Interest rates offers only for new cards... I will tell you different, if you hold any Zero Annual fee card unused for two years or so (only used twice a year to keep it alive), offers will come like clock work.

    PS3: Notice that my low annual fee or no annual fee zero interest are with banks are with my regular premium Rewards points card. Because they can see my track record ie payment in full every month, these banks are willing to increase MAX limit to higher amount without Credit Check as they can see my track record.


    FYI
    This might not be for you, if you are saving up for home loan. But for those, that already have or past the need for home loans, it is a great way to earn a few thousand dollars a years as a side hussle.

    (I also have premium cards like Amex Platinum, NAB Signature, WestPac Altitude Black, ANZ Black and Qantas Titanium with fees ranging from $450 to $1750 per year each for points, I have one or two active of these active all every year. But that is not for this thread)
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2022
  3. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Keith Weiner (CEO of Monetary Metals, and president of the Gold Standard Institute USA - normally a rather measured, rational guy) flags 'deferred' assets at the Fed as one potential trigger for hyperinflation in the USA.

    Screen Shot 2022-06-28 at 9.27.08 am.png
    Screen Shot 2022-06-28 at 9.33.17 am.png
     
  4. Michael Kay

    Michael Kay Active Member

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    This is great advice

    I have been a David Jones AMEX customer for quite a while. They have a generous points system, with 3 points at Coles, Woolies, and major petrol stations for each dollar spent. 13,300 gets you $100 in DJ credit. If you use it as a repayable line of credit, you can get about 500-600 bucks a year in vouchers, which can be reinvested in Lego (I know it sounds childish, but Lego is an actual alt investment). It has an annual 100-buck fee. Basically, there are many ways for the financially creative to make some extra $.
     
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2022
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  5. 4NinesFine

    4NinesFine Member

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    Lego is cool.....selling bits of plastic is fun too.
    https://www.brickeconomy.com/
     
  6. Michael Kay

    Michael Kay Active Member

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  7. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Milton the man the legend!
     
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  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Thank Friedman for QE.
     
  9. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    but mmm....shiney says that that the biggest increase in money supply ever during the GOVT reaction to covid isn't the cause of the inflation this time.:confused:
     
  10. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    That's right, asset prices aside. What's your point?
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2022
  11. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    I heard Brandon say that printing more will actually lower inflation.
    I always expect smart ideas to come out of his cock holster when he bumbles but thats pure genius.
     
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  12. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    No its not the trillions dispersed freely to everyone in America thats causing it. Couldnt be.
    Its only supply shortages they say. Dont worry its transitory and we will never have another recession in our lifetimes Janet said
     
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  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    QT can have the opposite effect of what is intended as those who are exposed to fixed income get higher rates of return and therefore have greater spending capacity.
     
  14. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  15. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    People on fixed incomes are being crushed with no raises for inflation. Theres no boss to ask for a raise and Brandon isnt answering calls right now.
    I wouldnt even call any of this QT with the Feds balance sheet still growing. Its just talk of QT.
     
  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    People on fixed incomes have been handed pay raises by central banks.

    Is The Fed's balance sheet growing? They're not reinvesting funds from bonds that matures.
     
  17. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    The central banks dont give raises here but maybe to Powell and Yellen haha. Thats all between the employer and employee at your work.

    My mom is retired and on fixed income and theres no meaningful raise for them. They might get a few percent but doesnt keep up with inflation.

    Central banks are still buying all the debt and issuing more every day. Nothing has changed much yet.
     
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2022
  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Fixed income = a type of investment that offers a set rate of interest for a specified amount of time, with the principal repaid at maturity.

    CBs are still buying debt, that's what CBs do, but their net position is not increasing. In other words as bonds mature, CBs are not buying more bonds with the proceeds of the sales. This is a steady unwinding process rather than an abrupt decline. See the chart below specifically the 1 year period.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
     
  19. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    I was thinking fixed income as in retirement wages.

    What does it mean to live on a fixed income?

    Regardless of the source, living on a fixed income means that this month doesn't vary, at least not by much, from last month or from the months yet to come. A downside to this could be the potential for inflation happening faster than the fixed income source can keep up with it.
     
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  20. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Update on the food/manufacturing side.
    Every week our products cost more. We've resorted to quotes only being valid on the day and are telling people we expect 50% higher cost within 3 months. As mentioned, we are 2 or 3 levels upstream in the supply chain. Not sure how much cost will be absorbed between us, our customer and the retailers but it's still getting worse every week not better. It's going to be a pretty depressing 2023 for all at this rate.
     

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