Inflation

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by mmm....shiney!, Jan 16, 2021.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    A job guarantee is where the government purchases unused (ie unemployed) and under-utilised labour from the private sector. How you'd go about implementing such a scheme in order to reduce supply constraints without creating even more inflationary pressure is something I'm still investigating. You'd probably have to find where demand for goods/services are going unmet at a local level and then the government would employ people to do that work. It gets pretty tricky though to manage though, particularly in areas where there are privateers already operating.

    I've read suggestions such as making public transport free as a strategy to reduce our need for fuel, the suggestion being that that would drive down prices, but it's not really a supply side solution. I can't help you with any more ideas at the moment. I know from where the problem stems, I just don't know how to solve it.

    I wouldn't have a problem with tax cuts to industry, there'd probably be short term inflationary pressure though until supply chains really get rolling.
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2022
  2. hardyakkagold

    hardyakkagold Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It would not be the solution to the problem but it would go some way in helping some struggling local industries.

    The cause of all this goes back more than a generation ago (the 1970s) and the then treasonously introduced globalist policies of both the Labor and Liberal to destroy Australian manufacturing at the behest of their globalist puppet masters in London and Washington.

    That is when they started to reduce the tariffs on imported goods and shipping our manufacturing industries overseas.

    Pure and simple social and economic engineering to create the multicultural Corporation of Australia subservient to the new world order.

    Back in the 1970s, you could buy a variety of Australian made cars, refrigerators, washing machines, lawnmowers, and just about anything
    else that you desired without supply issues.

    And what can you buy today that is Australian-made?

    Fuck all!

    I am sure that some on here would call that progress.
     
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  3. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    More conspiratorial nonsense combined with a poor understanding of economics.

    Adam Smith worked out over 200 years ago why nations get wealthier ie recognising the comparative advantage that comes from increasing global trade. You're obviously a few centuries behind in your thinking. Tariffs are artificial barriers to trade that simply result in consumers paying more for products.
     
  4. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    where would they find unused labour. we have a low unemployment rate and industry begging for migrant workers.
     
  5. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    of course con-19 exposed the downsides of globalisation, which is why im thinking tax cuts could kick start manufacturing and primary production. they would have to be very targetted though. maybe even tax havens for locally refined and sold fuels?
     
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  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    If I said I think that the unemployment data was not entirely accurate then you probably wouldn't disagree. ;)

    There are probably a large amount of workers who would prefer to work more hours than they are currently, that would be a start I guess.
     
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  7. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes I agree re under employment. Plenty of unjabbed still sitting at home as well.
     
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  8. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    plenty are under employed by choice. A lady tenant who rents a place off my boss is a cleaner only works a certain amount each week so as to not relinquish rental assistance.
    working the system.
     
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  9. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Biden is giving a speech soon about how he will tame the transitory inflation haha. Gonna be a popcorn show.
     
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  10. hardyakkagold

    hardyakkagold Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    America and its western lapdogs have inflation because they allowed the globalist deep state military-industrial complex to milk them dry
    with their endless wars and provocations around the world.
    JFK warned of this but it seems people like to bury their heads in the sand and pretend that it is not so.


    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Where you want wrong in your thinking is that you think the poor or elite citizens of America, Western allies, globalist deep state and military-industrial complex are separate entities.

    They are the same group
     
  12. Lovey80

    Lovey80 Well-Known Member

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    This comment is as arrogant as they get. Just because you keep repeating the myth doesn’t mean it’s true. You used to be a critical thinker but you’ve totally been sucked in by all this MMT bullshit. Meanwhile you’re using CPI index which I’m pretty sure you’ve rubbished (correctly) on these pages in the past. Meanwhile conveniently forgetting the CPI index substitutes items when they move outside a band assuming substitution when prices in certain commodities rise. Conveniently forgetting that the CPI index doesn’t correlate the largest consumer product in everyone’s lives……. housing. Shall we throw the housing index and the stock market index next to the CPI one?

    Just because the RBA has only in recent years begun QE doesn’t mean there wasn’t “printing” going on. It was just outsourced to the commercial banks through weak monetary policy and shit APRA lending requirements. From 1993 to 2018 housing prices jumped 412%. That’s nearly 16.5% a year. Or annualised it’s around 7% compounded annually.

    What is the average take home household income to housing cost %?.

    It’s all printing and the RBA is at the root of it.
     
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  13. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    Farmers don't really need a tax cut, they need to get a fair price for what they produce. Farmer gets an average of $24/10kg box of tomatoes ($14-$16/box cost to produce) over the course of a season. Woolworths sells them for $9/kg. Plenty of people make money out of farming. Just not the farmers.
     
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  14. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    I have an old racing buddy in western KS that farms corn for ethanol for the government. He actually makes more if his crops all die and he doesnt produce anything.

    He comes out here to Colorado and brings a dirt bike for me and i usually take a few days off while he camps at my place and we ride all day out in the mountains behind my place.
    He brings everything and feeds us too and isnt hurting for money at all.

    Could be that he farms for ethanol too, i dont know. Theres millions in those government subsidies he says.
     
  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    That ignores the value added by others down the supply chain. Standard industry practice in hospitality is that food costs are around 30% of retail price. At $2.40/kg cost price and $9/kg retail that fits pretty close to the 30% input cost allowing for spoilage.
     
  16. precious roar

    precious roar Active Member

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    Not dismissing your point but there are plenty of farmers making lots of money out there.
     
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  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    What's arrogant about pointing out that the rate of inflation rises and falls over the short term? That monetary policy has very little to do with inflation rates? That price inflation has been steadily declining long term for decades? That during periods of price inflation broad money supply has always increased yet on the contrary during periods of increasing broad money supply price inflation does not always rise? That during periods of price inflation commodity prices have always increased but price inflation does not always occur when commodity prices rise? That the origin for the growth in the money supply varies over the decades between loan growth ie the creation of deposits in private bank accounts and government debt?

    It's hardly a myth. I've presented facts, tables, graphs and cited research.

    A bit of background for you. Changes made to how the CPI is calculated are designed to reflect the changes in the spending habits of consumers over time. Consumption habits change over time as new products come to market, old products disappear and values change.

    If you're not happy with the CPI you can use one of the other measures of inflation, but you still arrive at the same point regardless of how big or small the numbers are, inflation rates rise and fall over the short term and monetary policy has very little effect on price inflation.

    For your benefit I'll repeat what I've said about 3456 times before, QE is responsible for asset price inflation, not for the jump in petrol prices, the empty supermarket shelves, the timber shortages, Covid, the delays in new car deliveries......

    Now I'm not going to remain obsessed with housing costs when inflation is far more broader than just that market and that I've acknowledged (and indeed alerted back in 2019 about an impending housing bubble) time and time and time and time again that one of the causes of asset price inflation is QE.

    The obsession with housing prices again. :rolleyes: My interest is in the alleged effect of QE on commodity prices. You are correct when you say money creation has been going on for years. That's how the modern monetary system operates. That's how money enters the economy. I posted a graph a few pages back which shows the changes in broad money supply, government debt and loans issued in the US. Here it is again.

    [​IMG]

    There is nothing new in that idea so your point is moot because we all know how new money is created and that the vast majority of it in the last few years has ended up in the stockmarket or the housing market.

    Nah. Yes to assets no to commodities and consumer goods.

    That table above is from Lyn Alden's website. She's not an advocate of MMT. I draw on a wide variety of sources in order to arrive at my conclusions. One of them is how the creation of money impacts economic growth, it happens to be based on an understanding of MMT. I've posted page after page of data, tables and research to support my position. All I see is you obsessed with the housing market and very little evidence supporting your opinion that the price rises we're seeing are because of QE.

    What has MMT got to do with QE anyway?
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2022
  18. Michael Kay

    Michael Kay Member

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    Actually, that arrogant comment was aimed at me, originally hahaha.

    The system needs people like mmm...shiney, true believers to give the system legitimacy. The economy is all about confidence. Most people in society (not like stackers) have trust in the system.

    But if you look closely, it is a house of cards. You made a good point about inflation in housing. If you go back to 1983, house prices in capital cities have increased by 1000% (that's right, one thousand percent).

    FOMO and out-of-control demand for housing and other assets (like for examples 1990s Nissan Skylines - "buy one for tens of thousands before you are priced out!") is out there because only a fool would keep money in a bank. Everyone is hocked up to the eyeballs.... as another member said "the new paradigm in investing".
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2022
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  19. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Just a bit of advice:

    https://courses.lumenlearning.com/olemiss-writ250/chapter/structure-of-argument/

    When you ready to work on points 2 and 3 let me know.
     
  20. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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