Inflation

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by mmm....shiney!, Jan 16, 2021.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    https://voxeu.org/article/understanding-inflation-risks-us-and-euro-area

    Analysing both the ECB’s and The Fed’s outlook for inflation:

     
  3. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    A rise in rents and other accommodation costs and prices for used vehicles were the “largest contributors” to December’s increase, according to the BLS. Since December 2020, those expenses have increased 4.1 per cent. Used car prices continued to zoom higher, increasing 3.5 per cent from the previous month, and nearly 40 per cent from a year ago. Energy prices fell 0.4 per cent from November — the first decline in months — and gasoline prices dipped as well. Food prices also contributed once again to the historically high figures. Dining out costs rose 0.6 per cent from a month ago, a 6 per cent year-on-year increase and the largest rise since January 1982. The broader food index was up 0.5 per cent, a more modest pace than the previous period. The cost of apparel, household furnishings and medical care also rose.
    --
    The US stock market opened higher, as investors digested data that appeared to keep the Fed on track for four quarter-point rate increases this year.

    https://www.ft.com/content/b90f59e1-79c2-403d-94a9-776555c541fc

    Screen Shot 2022-01-13 at 6.54.35 am.png
     
  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Bill Mitchell on inflationary expectations being linked to the duration of the pandemic rather than as a consequence of fiscal or monetary policy:

    blog

    No one knows how long this whole sorry mess will go on for.
     
  5. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    At about the same time (18 January 2013) the AUD vs USD exchange rate was 1.0518 approx.
    Today it's 0.7195 approx.

    18 January 2013 - silver was about $29.85 AUD, gold was $1,590 AUD
    19 January 2022 - silver is about $32.60 AUD, gold is about $2,520 AUD

    Just a 3 months later, April 2013 Perth Mint 10oz bars were selling for $270.56 AUD each, kilo bars were, $786.11 AUD each.

    At about the same time, 2013 1oz snakes were selling for $30.57, 2oz for $62.96, 5oz for $150.27, 10oz for $253.91, kilo for $785.

    Now a days, There's no Perth 10oz silver bars available from the mint, same goes for 100oz bars.
    Gone are the 1/2kg Lunars, 10oz Lunars, 2oz Kookaburras and the dwindling number of coins available to the everyday stacker.

    This post doesn't have much to do with the topic, but it does illustrate how metals can be used as a hedge.
    Having said that, many are predicting silver and gold will drop but that doesn't mean bullion coins with collector value will drop,
    neither does it mean that coin-dealer prices will drop; they won't, they'll just increase premiums.

    Bitcoin is down $34,700 AUD since the highs of November 2021.
     
  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    BTC January 2013 = USD13.30
    BTC January 2022 = USD42593
    BTC up $42580 since 2013. Pretty sure that’s up 320000%. BTC is not a hedge, it’s a wealth creating asset.
     
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  7. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    So they will perpetuate the pandemic so as to use it as an inflation control tool. Damn, I thought it was about health. ;)
     
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  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Haha.

    If you look at the tools at the disposal of government ie fiscal stimulus and their reluctance to use it, and the tools at the disposal of CBs ie monetary policy and its ineffectiveness to stimulate growth, then both the government and the CB would likely rather see an end to the pandemic than to perpetuate it.

    This would have a two-fold effect. Namely removing the pressure on government surrounding budgetary deficits, and turning the spotlight down on the failure of the central banking system operating within a Monetarist framework.
     
  9. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Victoria is going to be seeing inflation of a different sort as well - The number and cost of penalties and taxes will be inflating out of control as the state government tries to run the state coffers on fines and tax increases. "Penalty Inflation". I can picture the final "Chinafication" of Victoria with corrupt police pulling over and shaking down anyone and everyone, increases in the price of vehicle registrations, stamp duties, the return of death duties and so on.
     
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  10. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ VIC government will issue bonds and the RBA will buy them.
     
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  11. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I can see it now....

    Victorian Government "Dan Bonds"
    • Zero Interest Payable
    • Term: Perpetual
    • $100.00 face value per bond
    • Yours compulsorily for $500.00 with every car registration renewal and quarterly power bill.
    Be part of Victoria's future by giving us all your money now.
     
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  12. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    [

    Yes, that's a fantastic gain. :D
    I wonder how many folk bought at 13 bucks and sold at the highs.
    Probably plenty of forum folk smiling just like Peter Schiff.
     
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  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    @Holdfast, not me. I learnt my lesson not to cash in my winners to buy losers.

    I now “holdfast”. ;)

    My plan for my SMSF crypto portfolio is to never cash in.
     
  14. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    That's a strategy shiny. ;)
    I think back to those times; they seemed good but also frightening too.
    Remember Mt Gox, they were handling over 70% of Bitcoin transactions and then went bust with plenty of folks Bitcoins missing.
    I have an old screen shot below which has their web-site saying:

    MT GOX Trade With Confidence.

    And lets not forget the pumpers for silver saying that silver was going to $130 per ounce. (I'm still waiting for 3 digit silver) :D
     

    Attached Files:

    66rounds and mmm....shiney! like this.
  15. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Ze Germans are not going to be too pleazed... :eek:

    Screen Shot 2022-01-20 at 6.23.33 pm.png
     
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  16. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    The easy money wont stop. Hold on Germany!
    The dollar is dropping fast!
     
  17. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    With all the easy money seeping through into the economy and stimmies its no surprise we are seeing the inflationary effects now.
    The drop in the Dollar's value is showing up bigtime in other countries as their currencies drop even more compared to the Dollar.
    No one that is connected to the Almighty Dollar will be immune to this one haha.
    Doesnt matter how sound you think your economy is. If its weighed against the Dollar it will be dropping.
     
  18. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    The massive increases in welfare payments to Americas poorest will surely play its part too. They spend every dime they get and sell what they dont need for cash at a discounted rate. The welfare cards dont require ID.
    Its one of the biggest scams going, besides the welfare itself.
     
  19. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Of course if it gets too hot they can always adjust the CPI again.
    They might have to change it since it accidentally counts inflation wrong. So many darn accidents these days haha. Never seen it coming they say.
     
  20. vos

    vos Member

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    In little old Australia, the duopoly of supermarkets know exactly which products count in price baskets. Pretty easy for a smallish clique to keep reported inflation and interests rates low.
     

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