Inflation

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by mmm....shiney!, Jan 16, 2021.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    New thread I think, the content to this video is locked, but the summary gives a good indication of what it's about:

    A search for Steven van Metre or Michael Ashton would provide some free info.

    Here's a start:

    https://tdameritradenetwork.com/video/rB4AoXXRH-mBddKB3a0AUQ
     
  2. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just jumped online to share this with you @mmm....shiney! As it pertains to our discussion.

    Starting at the 3min-ish mark.

    So we can conclude that the CPI isn't the most accurate picture of inflation, and is somewhat detached from assets at the moment which we see increasing in value faster than CPI suggests but in lock step with M1 (thanks to QE etc...)


    "If the prices of those houses had compounded anything other than the price level"
    What does he mean by price level here? The market price of housing?
     
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  3. nicotineandcaffeine

    nicotineandcaffeine Active Member

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    The inflation numbers from last week (probably genuinely reflecting economy) kinda suggest zero or deflation for 2021.

    I can't replicate this . Using his definiition I am at 14.08 and not 4.38 for US gold. Obviously needs to include money supply as it was pegged on gold standard which I get today at 40.07:1

    Problem with gold is its kinda detached from hedge of inflation and currency risk a decade ago and turned speculative.
     
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  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I’ll be a bit busy over the next few days but I’ll try and set aside some time to work it out.
     
  5. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Screenshot_2021-01-19-17-19-38-70.jpg

    Maybe this explains the discrepancies we are seeing?
     
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  6. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I was going to time stamp this but it's all too relevant. Answered most of my questions.

     
  7. Lovey80

    Lovey80 Well-Known Member

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    Michael needs to get his head of of his arse.
    432E74FB-0417-4376-9415-A46513CC6CAF.gif

    The problem is, like fuel most people can’t avoid housing costs. Since the late 90’s the divergence from CPI has been significant. The divergence between historical house/income ratios has also been significant. When a single or couple are spending more than half their income on their property then increases in housing prices have a much bigger effect on disposable income than anything else.

    With the CPI, if a single item of the basket goes up significantly, the statisticians assume that substitution will happen and they replace the item in the basket. You can’t do that with housing.

    The huge increases in housing prices, and their lack of weighting in the CPI index, I think, has been a large reason CPI increases in the other basket commodities over the past 20-23years hasn’t taken off with the increases in credit. Housing is sucking up all the new digital currency being created and we get told inflation is at 2% when the reality is our disposable incomes are diminishing.
     
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  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    From the other side:

    https://tsi-blog.com/2021/02/the-coming-inflation-problem-in-the-us/
     

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