New thread I think, the content to this video is locked, but the summary gives a good indication of what it's about: A search for Steven van Metre or Michael Ashton would provide some free info. Here's a start: https://tdameritradenetwork.com/video/rB4AoXXRH-mBddKB3a0AUQ
Just jumped online to share this with you @mmm....shiney! As it pertains to our discussion. Starting at the 3min-ish mark. So we can conclude that the CPI isn't the most accurate picture of inflation, and is somewhat detached from assets at the moment which we see increasing in value faster than CPI suggests but in lock step with M1 (thanks to QE etc...) "If the prices of those houses had compounded anything other than the price level" What does he mean by price level here? The market price of housing?
The inflation numbers from last week (probably genuinely reflecting economy) kinda suggest zero or deflation for 2021. I can't replicate this . Using his definiition I am at 14.08 and not 4.38 for US gold. Obviously needs to include money supply as it was pegged on gold standard which I get today at 40.07:1 Problem with gold is its kinda detached from hedge of inflation and currency risk a decade ago and turned speculative.
Michael needs to get his head of of his arse. The problem is, like fuel most people can’t avoid housing costs. Since the late 90’s the divergence from CPI has been significant. The divergence between historical house/income ratios has also been significant. When a single or couple are spending more than half their income on their property then increases in housing prices have a much bigger effect on disposable income than anything else. With the CPI, if a single item of the basket goes up significantly, the statisticians assume that substitution will happen and they replace the item in the basket. You can’t do that with housing. The huge increases in housing prices, and their lack of weighting in the CPI index, I think, has been a large reason CPI increases in the other basket commodities over the past 20-23years hasn’t taken off with the increases in credit. Housing is sucking up all the new digital currency being created and we get told inflation is at 2% when the reality is our disposable incomes are diminishing.
snip https://rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-06.html Analysts are predicting that inflation will pick up in the June quarter before falling again, as various public policy decisions have their effect. And Bill Mitchell on inflation: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=47334
Re Mike Maloney: 1. "Lumber" price rises are due to supply constraints at the mills. We have to separate price rises as a result of public policy eg subsidies, tariffs, lock-downs etc v price rises due to the inflation in the supply of money. 2. Hyperinflation is not going to happen in the US or Aus. The history of hyperinflation is one where nations trashed their own productive capacity to meet domestic demand AND inflated the money supply. That's not happening and won't happen. 3. Inflation is a buzz word because mainstream economists and journalists (and PM pumpers) don't understand how our monetary system operates. 4. The rise in stock ownership is a direct result of the inflation in the money supply. There is no reason to suggest that the bubble will burst as long as Central Banks keep pursuing accommodative monetary polices. 5. Our grandkids will not be paying for our "reckless" spending because sovereign nations are not revenue constrained ie they don't use the tax system to pay down debt. Maloney is pushing an outdated agenda based upon falsehoods, whether he is deliberately doing that or just plain ignorant I don't know.
what about these warnings: HOUSING BOOM!!! MINING BOOM!!! (famous quotes from Joe Hockey - ex treasurer)
Well the housing boom is being supercharged because it's no longer economical to build (and 0.1% cash rate). It's hitting the mainstream media now that lumber is up 250%. Nice work if you're the banker who's been rolling over CME contracts. Shit for everyone else. Back on topic. Why is silver the only commodity not responding with inflating price? Was it already priced in being "it's a hedge against inflation bro" silver?
