Inflation

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by mmm....shiney!, Jan 16, 2021.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    New thread I think, the content to this video is locked, but the summary gives a good indication of what it's about:

    A search for Steven van Metre or Michael Ashton would provide some free info.

    Here's a start:

    https://tdameritradenetwork.com/video/rB4AoXXRH-mBddKB3a0AUQ
     
  2. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just jumped online to share this with you @mmm....shiney! As it pertains to our discussion.

    Starting at the 3min-ish mark.

    So we can conclude that the CPI isn't the most accurate picture of inflation, and is somewhat detached from assets at the moment which we see increasing in value faster than CPI suggests but in lock step with M1 (thanks to QE etc...)


    "If the prices of those houses had compounded anything other than the price level"
    What does he mean by price level here? The market price of housing?
     
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  3. nicotineandcaffeine

    nicotineandcaffeine Active Member

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    The inflation numbers from last week (probably genuinely reflecting economy) kinda suggest zero or deflation for 2021.

    I can't replicate this . Using his definiition I am at 14.08 and not 4.38 for US gold. Obviously needs to include money supply as it was pegged on gold standard which I get today at 40.07:1

    Problem with gold is its kinda detached from hedge of inflation and currency risk a decade ago and turned speculative.
     
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  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I’ll be a bit busy over the next few days but I’ll try and set aside some time to work it out.
     
  5. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Screenshot_2021-01-19-17-19-38-70.jpg

    Maybe this explains the discrepancies we are seeing?
     
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  6. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I was going to time stamp this but it's all too relevant. Answered most of my questions.

     
  7. Lovey80

    Lovey80 Well-Known Member

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    Michael needs to get his head of of his arse.
    432E74FB-0417-4376-9415-A46513CC6CAF.gif

    The problem is, like fuel most people can’t avoid housing costs. Since the late 90’s the divergence from CPI has been significant. The divergence between historical house/income ratios has also been significant. When a single or couple are spending more than half their income on their property then increases in housing prices have a much bigger effect on disposable income than anything else.

    With the CPI, if a single item of the basket goes up significantly, the statisticians assume that substitution will happen and they replace the item in the basket. You can’t do that with housing.

    The huge increases in housing prices, and their lack of weighting in the CPI index, I think, has been a large reason CPI increases in the other basket commodities over the past 20-23years hasn’t taken off with the increases in credit. Housing is sucking up all the new digital currency being created and we get told inflation is at 2% when the reality is our disposable incomes are diminishing.
     
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  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    From the other side:

    https://tsi-blog.com/2021/02/the-coming-inflation-problem-in-the-us/
     
  9. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    snip

    https://rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-06.html

    Analysts are predicting that inflation will pick up in the June quarter before falling again, as various public policy decisions have their effect.

    And Bill Mitchell on inflation:

    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=47334
     
  10. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Mike Maloney is a bit of a pumper but this is interesting in view of the current discussion.

     
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  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Re Mike Maloney:

    1. "Lumber" price rises are due to supply constraints at the mills. We have to separate price rises as a result of public policy eg subsidies, tariffs, lock-downs etc v price rises due to the inflation in the supply of money.
    2. Hyperinflation is not going to happen in the US or Aus. The history of hyperinflation is one where nations trashed their own productive capacity to meet domestic demand AND inflated the money supply. That's not happening and won't happen.
    3. Inflation is a buzz word because mainstream economists and journalists (and PM pumpers) don't understand how our monetary system operates.
    4. The rise in stock ownership is a direct result of the inflation in the money supply. There is no reason to suggest that the bubble will burst as long as Central Banks keep pursuing accommodative monetary polices.
    5. Our grandkids will not be paying for our "reckless" spending because sovereign nations are not revenue constrained ie they don't use the tax system to pay down debt.

    Maloney is pushing an outdated agenda based upon falsehoods, whether he is deliberately doing that or just plain ignorant I don't know.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2021
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  12. bubblebobble2

    bubblebobble2 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Inflation makes Aussies buy more SHARES! ASX200 goes to the roof! New ASX200 benchmark
     
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  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Fixed it for you.
     
  14. bubblebobble2

    bubblebobble2 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    whoa....!? you're the buyer on ASX200...!?
     
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  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Im a penny stocks guy, I’m in the red today :p
     
  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    George Selgin in his article Return of the Inflation Mongers writes:

     
  17. bubblebobble2

    bubblebobble2 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    what about these warnings:

    HOUSING BOOM!!!

    MINING BOOM!!!

    (famous quotes from Joe Hockey - ex treasurer)
     
  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Hasn't Australia been in a perpetually long term housing boom (and stock market boom) for decades?
     
  19. lurking

    lurking Member

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    Well the housing boom is being supercharged because it's no longer economical to build (and 0.1% cash rate).

    It's hitting the mainstream media now that lumber is up 250%. Nice work if you're the banker who's been rolling over CME contracts. Shit for everyone else.

    Back on topic. Why is silver the only commodity not responding with inflating price? Was it already priced in being "it's a hedge against inflation bro" silver?
     
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  20. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Because the price of monetary metals is managed by vested interests
     

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