I am starting to think my precious $13 silver is on the way

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Gullintanni, Jul 19, 2018.

  1. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    There was a time that a ruler sent out buddies with weapons and a license, to collect taxes.
    Those losing their property this way, clearly recognized who took it.
    Those days are long gone.
    Nowadays, taxes are collected along a financial system of several % / year rates, so called intrest rates.
    By manipulating these rates, one higher, another lower - indirectly as an invisible hand along buying and selling the corresponding derivatives, todays ruler achieves the same as the ruler with his soldiers.

    So, why would governments, whatever they name themselves (communist, liberal, socialist...) choose again an openly visible tax / legal property theft?
    It's just not needed. Just frontrun the holders of currency on the markets they try to escape the theft.
    Big example case: look at gold.
    Why on Earth did the governments SELL 600 tonnes annually, during years / decades that golds price was historically low?
    To then BUY 600 tonnes annually, during years / decades that golds price was/is historically high?
    And why don't they even bother to adjust their gold stocks fiat value on their balances?
    Anybody that wants to preserve purchasing power, wants to buy gold at lower prices and sell gold at high prices.
    Governments, did and do the exact opposite.
    One can exclude stupidity and coincidence, because they act the exact opposite way, no exceptions. Stupidity and randomness/luck has a chance to produce good decisions. And those are completely absent here.
    So confiscation? I don't think so.
    At most they probably just limit speculators trading in such a way that these fail to perform drastic/allout actions.
    And actually, that is already the case since the 2008+ crisis. Even in my western country. In 2011, one could transfer 100,000's euro in a single bank order. Now there is a 25,000 per day limit. That gives governments plenty time to take further measures, and its automatic, it's not like that some1 receives a personal refusal from his bank upon his money order.

    Communism is indeed still very alive today. Actually, it isn't even a 'still', it becomes more every day, and the current state is not much different anymore with the former USSR. It's for a reason that I put "EUSSR" into my profiles Location.

    Maybe the best time to stack gold and silver is when governments switch back to net selling gold. They will do so when speculators demand dried up, to dominantly sell instead. Then governments will drive the gold price lower, as to inflict speculators less fiat for their gold.
    This is then an example of "going against the herd", doing the opposite of what most speculators do.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2018
  2. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    There had been lots of precedence for this, if you do some research. Search "state acquisition of land".

    Widespread seizure of land by governments is actually very common as early as 20-30 years ago, perhaps not in Europe, but it's actually quite common in other countries, and it's not only just communist states that do that.

    By the way, silver price is stabilising, maybe I should also get some silver? Or gold? It's frustratating to buy from dealers with premium when you could buy on this forum at nearly spot!
     
  3. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    A forced sale isn't a confiscation.
     
  4. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    No ones just takes away land without any form of compensation.

    What the land owner will get:

    1. 50-20% of the price in a private sales.
    2. A letter of certificate of appreciation for contributing to national development (and maybe a gold plated medal). :)
     
  5. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    They name it "market value", which should equal "private" sales though.
     
  6. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    All data I collected over the years, from $4 to $50 and back, indicates that mining had little to no effect on the price. The supply difference that makes the price difference doesn't come from miners, but from those that buy
    and again sell, and that includes "manipulators".
     
  7. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    there is Silver User Association, SUA
    we will be having Oil User Club real soon too

    technologies have been suppressed for the dis-benefit of well human being

    they all failed in the END
     
  8. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    There is a sentence that I find weird:

    "We don't want to be paying more for metals just because of speculation,"

    The existence reason of the futures market, is precisely that.
    So it doesn't need any new organisation / cooperation / whatever.
    Those that don't want to pay higher prices due to stockpiling of others, can order silver, and simulteanously take weight-corresponding amount futures market long positions.
    This actually increases the price too, so the hedger makes others to pay more, and that extra is what he'll receive as compensation for an eventual further price increase by the time his silver order gets delivered and has to be paid.
    And most ETFs work this same way, "through" futures contracts.
     
  9. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Does your data take into account that theres far less silver to be mined now then before?
     
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  10. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    There is less silver in the ground as silver is a finite resource, but from the charts I've seen, the annual supply of newly mined gold and silver has been increasing all these years due to a sudden surge in supply from Russia and China that has more than offset falls in productions in Australia and South Africa. It will be interesting to see if Russia and China especially can maintain the high supply, especially in face of falling "real" silver and gold prices.

    My opinion is that we'll see peak gold and silver within 10 years.
     
  11. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    I think so, your "far less" is just the sum of the amount mined over the data period, no?
     
  12. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    But again, the data shows that the amount mined trend had nearly no correlation at all with the silver price trend, leading to my statement dat the silver price trend was due to stockpiling / destockpiling.
    For the price trend, mining was just irrelevant, so any price prediction based on it has no basis.
    If all stockpiled "investment" silver would be shot outside range in space, then the amount mined, together with the amount recycled, would become the complete supply, and correlate with the silver price, until some people again start to use it to store value.
     
  13. Gullintanni

    Gullintanni Well-Known Member

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    What does the amount of silver left in the ground have to do with price?
    Almost all of the silver ever mined (i say almost for the picky people that will bring up satellites,lol)is still sitting here on earth and the majority of it is just sitting around doing nothing.
    Silver can not be destroyed easily so it is not like paper or plastic that can be broken down its atomic structure .
    We are really talking beanie babies when we talk about silver except silver has more uses than beanie babies BUT when a beanie is destroyed it can not be replaced as only so many were made and a new one would not be the original.
    Coal should probably have more value than silver because of the time it takes to replace we could actually use ALL THE COAL on the planet and unles some amazing new tech comes up we will never use all the silver we have.
    WHY DO I STILL COLLECT SILVER if i am so anti?>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Well the answer to that is simply that i like silver and i know that many other people on the planet buy into all the zerohedge type hype and when it has its next big rise i want to make money from it.
     
  14. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Are you saying that the silver that went into billions of photo films made since the last century, and the $300 televisions and $500 laptops can be recovered?

    Meanwhile, Japan can't get enough recycled silver for the olympic medals. A total of 1230kg of silver is needed. The whole of Japan, the 3rd biggest economy in the world, can't even get 1230kg (40,000oz) of recycled silver.

    https://financialtribune.com/articl...-faces-silver-shortage-for-2020-olympic-games

    Of course, there are 19th century silver heirlooms, silver in churches and temples, there are tons and plenty of these lying around, within sight and easily obtainable.... and olympics medals - they are made of silver.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2018
  15. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Silvers price is manipulated coz it is a direct competitor to fiat monies. Don't believe the hype that there's plenty of silver around. Forward to 3 minute mark -

     
  16. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think I'll agree that at this moment, mining has no relation to price, for as long as the producers can supply what the industry demands, the buyers will only buy at the lowest possible price without bankrupting all the miners.

    It's a similar case as FB or any Internet stock, the price continues going up until suddenly, investors realise they have hit growth saturation point - which for FB is, almost everyone that wants and can have a FB account already has an account. All of a sudden, there is realization that the parabolic growth stage is over, so FB stock comes crashing down.
     
  17. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    I found mining, and industrial demand, and recycling, as irrelevant to the price trend.
    More precisely: all non-stockpiling demand summed up to a net zero, so undid eachother, leaving only stockpiling (what some name "investment) as single big price driver.

    Stocks are unlike metal hoarding. See, FB is a service, and all people may have an account, leaving no room for growth, but hoarding / stockpiling is only limited by stupidity - at some point, even the 2nd dumbest starts to smell something fishy and just before that point, the smartest seller and the dumbest buyer trade with eachother.
    So, there is no "investors realize", it's a story with winners and losers, the former targeting their profit, the latter discovering their loss.
     
  18. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Fb and all internet stocks are valued on the basis of an ever increasing growth rate. Once growth slows or flattens out, investors will demand for 4-5% annual dividends as with other stocks, and their price will adjust accordingly - minimum drop of 80-95% based on today’s valuation.
     
  19. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    doesn't that make FB the best stock to sell short
     
  20. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Was initially thinking to wait for $13, but those "athenian owls" today already appeared back in stock (the dealer has a wishlist and I had entered it there). Same price as before.
    And, the Comex hedge (total net position) dropped further till under 20000, so the chance is big that their hedge-retaking blows up the silver price again with $2-3 dollars.
    So I ordered again all the owls they had in stock.
    I think that will have been my silver for 2018. Maybe, very maybe, if the dollarprice would become $13, I might be tempted. But that will probably be after a next sales>hedge cycle, usually 3-4 months.
    And I rather prefer to keep my fiat min target.
    So after 3 years no silver, my stack has again grown with 282 coins, some of them kilo's. :p
    And my average again further down.

    Owl.jpg
     
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2018
    whay and Silverbandit007 like this.

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