How long will we be in lock-down quarantine?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by openeyes, Mar 17, 2020.

  1. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2016
    Messages:
    4,007
    Likes Received:
    901
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    North Sydney
    there are stories (not verified) but likely true that ambulances are not picking up dead people in Italy for days and the family members are distraught.... But when the system is stretched to the limits including the ambulances, they have to prioritise the picking up sick people first.

    Likely regulations in most first world countries that limit pick up by non medical professional, for investigation about foul play.
     
  2. heartastack

    heartastack Active Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2010
    Messages:
    812
    Likes Received:
    216
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Location:
    Idaho
    Iran must be terrible.. Islam has strict timings for funerals/burial rituals
     
  3. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2016
    Messages:
    4,007
    Likes Received:
    901
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    North Sydney
    ‘Iran likely has less formal regulatory way of dealing with death.
     
  4. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2016
    Messages:
    4,007
    Likes Received:
    901
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    North Sydney
    What the first flattening curve doesn’t show is, once a vaccine is found there is no reason to flatten a curve and can be stopped smartly (unless you put cdc charge)
     
  5. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2013
    Messages:
    990
    Likes Received:
    612
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Location:
    SE QLD
    there's a lot of people that could do well by running out of food for 2 weeks. flatten some curves.
     
  6. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2014
    Messages:
    1,118
    Likes Received:
    808
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Canberra
    I like that comment
     
    Holdfast likes this.
  7. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2014
    Messages:
    1,118
    Likes Received:
    808
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Canberra
    hahahaha indeed. I am one of them
     
    Holdfast likes this.
  8. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2015
    Messages:
    1,307
    Likes Received:
    169
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Holdfast vitamin D may help build the immune systems but lack of it is not the reason we have flu outbreaks in winter.
    I will give you the benefit of the doubt and say that adequate levels of vit D can help but the reason we have flu outbreaks in winter is even simpler than that.
    In winter the first thing is people tend to congregate indoors and a lot of the time that is with other people so you have a higher chance of passing on a bug.
    Another reason and even more damaging is the virus can live in the cool air and on cooler surfaces for much much longer and that gives them a far better chance at finding a new host.
    True with the lack of sun in winter our bodies are not as strong immune wise as summer but that is just a small part because even people with fantastic immune systems are still vulnerable to flu and other viruses.
    In fact the 1918 flu variant was LESS successful in people with strong immune systems because it tended to have the effect of causing them DEATH.

    There is a reason biological samples are stored in freezers and not ovens and that is cold does not kill virus or bacteria like it does us.
    I do not mean to sound like a smart as with the oven vs freezer analogy because its not a joke or jab ,it is reality.
     
    minimilled likes this.
  9. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2016
    Messages:
    496
    Likes Received:
    600
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Yes - they are somewhat sparse in describing the methodology, but offer this:
    Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios
    We consider the impact of five different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) implemented individually and in combination (Table 2). In each case, we represent the intervention mechanistically within the simulation, using plausible and largely conservative (i.e. pessimistic) assumptions about the impact of each intervention and compensatory changes in contacts (e.g. in the home) associated with reducing contact rates in specific settings outside the household. The model reproduces the intervention effect sizes seen in epidemiological studies and in empirical surveys of contact patterns. Two of the interventions (case isolation and voluntary home quarantine) are triggered by the onset of symptomsand are implemented the next day.The other four NPIs (social distancing of those over 70 years, social distancing of the entire population, stopping mass gatheringsand closure of schools and universities) are decisions made at the government level. For these interventions we therefore consider surveillance triggers based on testing of patients in critical care (intensive care units, ICUs). We focus on such cases as testing is most complete for the most severely ill patients. When examining mitigation strategies, we assume policies are in force for 3months, other than social distancing of those over the age of 70 which is assumed to remain in place for one month longer. Suppression strategies are assumed to be in place for 5 months or longer.
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    The entire report is an interesting read. Incidentally Neil Ferguson (main author) is now self-isolating.

    Screen Shot 2020-03-19 at 8.24.40 am.png Screen Shot 2020-03-19 at 8.25.09 am.png
     
    sterling-nz likes this.
  10. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    8,377
    Likes Received:
    1,773
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)


    there was planning and walk through when shaving bold being done last months
     
    sterling-nz likes this.
  11. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2014
    Messages:
    1,118
    Likes Received:
    808
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Canberra
    20 March - 750 - Actual at 10am 756
     
  12. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2014
    Messages:
    1,118
    Likes Received:
    808
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Canberra
    22 March - actual 1286

    NSW and VIC announce statewide lockdown.

    Schools likely to close from Tuesday
     
    slavaja and 66rounds like this.
  13. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 10, 2012
    Messages:
    6,181
    Likes Received:
    1,084
    Trophy Points:
    113
    66rounds likes this.
  14. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2018
    Messages:
    3,163
    Likes Received:
    3,338
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Oz
    I'm in a regional area right now and given the announcement of the SA Gov't today re closing their border, I saw SA rego cars and caravans leaving for home this afternoon. Those on the wrong side of the NSW / Vic border have seen the writing on the wall and all hightailing back to their home states tomorrow.
     
    jultorsk and 66rounds like this.
  15. bubblebobble2

    bubblebobble2 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2012
    Messages:
    2,470
    Likes Received:
    795
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Seedeneey
    trade your metals with toilet rolls?
     
  16. bubblebobble2

    bubblebobble2 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2012
    Messages:
    2,470
    Likes Received:
    795
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Seedeneey
  17. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2014
    Messages:
    1,118
    Likes Received:
    808
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Canberra
    Although I love the beach I think it is still possible to get some sunshine. Agreed that with salty conditions it seems less likely virus will so easily transmit to others.
     
  18. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2015
    Messages:
    1,307
    Likes Received:
    169
    Trophy Points:
    63
    What makes you think a 4% salt condition will make a virus less likely to spread?
    I regularly inject people with .9% solutions and its not anti viral it is just a safe way to clear lines.
    Science needs to take the lead here not best guesses .
    We need social distancing and isolation from family and best friends .
    Just look at these well meaning idiots.
    idiots.PNG
     
    Shaddam IV and bubblebobble2 like this.
  19. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2010
    Messages:
    7,528
    Likes Received:
    2,866
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    House Corrino
  20. spannermonkey

    spannermonkey Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2010
    Messages:
    15,169
    Likes Received:
    668
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    here there everywhere
    Hopefully NOT this long
    [​IMG]
     
    Shaddam IV, sterling-nz and Ipv6Ready like this.

Share This Page