How long will we be in lock-down quarantine?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by openeyes, Mar 17, 2020.

  1. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I have been thinking about how long we will be confined to quarters as they say. My partner thinks it will all be over in a couple of months at the most. Authorities and organisations have been postponing events for a month and sometimes until end of April. None of this seems real to me so I thought I would use some of the existing data to do some of my own calculations.

    Some have already done some calculations and have made it a lot easier.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

    But I thought about the number ICU (Intensive Care Unit - usually with Ventilators) beds available and that the authorities will be trying to ensure we don't overload these beds so that those that need care will get it. However I am going to assume that we have twice the number of people requiring bed than bed available. I am also going to assume that no one else is sick for other reasons as our ICU beds are normally 65%-95% occupied. There are about 2000 ICU beds in Australia and they are trying to double this now to 4000.

    So I will model this on 8000 people needing a ICU bed at any one time. I person usually needs a bed for 2-8 weeks but I will model on 2 weeks.

    In China about 5% of the cases required hospitalisation. In Italy however it is 10%. For modelling purposes I will use the lower Chinese figure of 5%.

    So how many people can get sick at once. If 8000 is 5% then the total infected at that time is 100%/5% x 8000 = 160000. Then we have to wait for two weeks before those people are well and ICU beds are available again. So what is the ongoing number. Well lets break it into days. So 8000 for 14 days so per day that would be 8000 / 14 = 572. So lets revise our total infected patients to 160000 / 14 = 11429.

    This means that 11429 people could get infected each day. But hey you say we only 350 plus people who are infected. Well that number is a little deceptive and these are only the people that have been tested.

    The report about the Italian situation is interesting reading for those interested.

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763188

    But I refer you back to the earlier reference from statnews.

    Herd immunity - how many people need to be immune to prevent widespread transmission of a disease within a community. i.e. we can get back to our normal lives as the spread will be like the flu. It will still be around but there wont be large explosions in numbers.

    references
    https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comments-about-herd-immunity/
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federa...covid-19-herd-immunity-policy-20200316-p54akv

    The average suggests 58%-61% and I will use 60% to make the maths a little simpler.

    So 60% of the Australia population of 25,000,000 is 15,000,000.

    So bringing it all together. If we have 11429 people per day infected for 365 days in a year we would have 4171585 infected in one year. It would take 3.6 years to reach herd immunity naturally. All 3.6 years we would have twice the number of people requiring ICU beds than we actually have and we would be doing well as we would only have 5% of patients requiring ICU like in China - not the 10% required in Italy.

    But you say again how could we get to 11429 people getting infected every day. I point you to another reference aside from the statnews calculations.

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#trajectories-since-the-100th-confirmed-case

    Basically Infectious diseases have a doubling rate. I.e. how long does it take for the number of infected to double. For COVID-19 it has been between 3 days and 35 days. The average is closer to 3 days. But China has dramatically slowed the rate with their measures (if you believe the numbers).

    Its currently 3 days here in Australia.
    At 6.00am 17th March there were 375 cases
    Projections
    20 March - 750
    23 March - 1500
    26 March - 3000
    29 March - 6000
    1 April - 12000
    4 April - 24000
    7 April - 48000
    10 April - 96000
    13 April - 192,000
    16 April - 384,000
    19 April - 768,000

    So by the 4th of April we will have exceeded our 11429 infected per day. You can see the numbers get quite out of hand after that.

    So containment measures make a lot of sense if you want to be able to treat those who get critically sick.

    I have two young children so school holidays are something I think of. Term one in Canberra concludes on the 9th of April - hmmm doesn't seem like waiting until then for a lock down would be a good idea.

    The USA has about 3500 cases at the time of writing this and they are moving quickly into a full lock-down. We would be close to that by the end of next week.

    I expect all schools and businesses (except those consider critical e.g. supermarkets, pharmacies etc) to be closed by the end of next week.

    More importantly I don't believe this will change for at least a year and likely longer unless some other solution becomes available.

    I will stop there as this may be quite shocking to some. No doubt others know this already.
     
  2. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It all depends how quick we get it over and done with. Imagine Australia locks down for three months and has no new cases. The world has gone through the virus, case loads high but dropping. They now have corcating immunity and we don't. As soon as we open up again we will have cases popping up everywhere. It is not something we can avoid. I say get it over and done with, max two week lock down for suspected cases.
     
  3. Silver Soul

    Silver Soul Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm preped for 6 months for the whole family. If it's longer than that. [email protected] It. I have 12 months supplies for myself. :D
     
  4. minimilled

    minimilled Active Member

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    Ventilators are already at capacity and then some. This is the same with medical beds. Most hospital beds. This is the issue. The numbers say it’s not 100% but almost everywhere in reality it is and the EDs are totally overflowing to the point of internal disaster alerts regularly in quite a number of hospitals, a great amount of clinical time sunk in discussions over beds. It’s maxed out and that is why this is the issue it is.

    The British system, from my understanding (it’s as bad as anywhere now with mass immigration and no user pays for country shoppers), used to say the ideal was to run a system around 85% capacity.

    Now pretty much everywhere is 100% and sometimes more than that. Everything backs up in EDs which are not designed for it. It’s terrible.

    You can say, “Let’s just take it on the chin” but in truth a lot of people will perish who would have lived, due to this system run to max at baseline.

    That’s the reason for quarantine. Slack in the system would not necessarily mean such a restrictive approach. Prepare for the hospital version of TP, where you can’t get an ambulance or a bed. Sad to say, but that’s some of the hard earned experience overseas so far.
     
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  5. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This virus is now endemic globally - having no new cases just wont happen. As you note - as soon as we open our borders or reduce our lock-down it will resurface.

    To your point about get it over with - this is what that would look like.

    20 March - 750
    23 March - 1500
    26 March - 3000
    29 March - 6000
    1 April - 12000
    4 April - 24000
    7 April - 48000
    10 April - 96000
    13 April - 192,000
    16 April - 384,000
    19 April - 768,000
    22 April - 1536000
    25 April - 3072000
    28 April - 6144000

    At least 2% dead (it could go as high as 5%) as there will be no hospitalisations - 122880. 614400 requiring ICU hospitalisations but not getting it.

    There would be major social issues with dead bodies piling on the streets. Failures in utilities with so many sick. Shops not stocked with food. I do not think this an option any of us really want to see in reality.
     
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  6. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes we should note that in my calculations every other person requiring hospitalisation to survive would die as they are all taken (twice) by COVID-19 patients in my scenario.

    It has to be slowed and it will be for a long time as far as the calculations show.
     
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  7. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    One other point I did not make is about China. They have current got something like 81000 people who have been infected. They need to get to 840 million infected before they get herd immunity. They will not escape lock-down until a vaccine or treatment is available.
     
  8. Silver Soul

    Silver Soul Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    We have a great stockpile of oxygen bottles with regulators for the tough times. I do hope that I don't need to use them.
     
  9. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I considered getting some medical oxygen but decided against it. I also hope it is not necessary for me but who knows.

    This leads me to believe that some people may purposely try to get infected to be in the first few so they get hospital treatment. Expect to see some hot spots of infection due to this.
     
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  10. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This calculation has convinced me not to spend any cash on more silver (or Gold) no matter how low the price goes - unless the end is known definitively.
     
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  11. Silver Soul

    Silver Soul Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I have excess due to what do in this mad world. I like a bottle after a hard night on the piss :)
     
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  12. minimilled

    minimilled Active Member

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    In several Asian countries new case incidence seems to have slowed.

    Your doubling time is 3 days.

    I don’t know what it is, but early on they said the “basic reproduction number is 2” That turned out to be BS. I did what you did for a doubling time of 2 days with end point of 40% world infection and it was 238 days, maybe August this year, I forget exactly the time, but around that.

    Looking at how many cases we have now, after the 80k in China, we should have had another 80k in a few days after that, but it is only days ago that the total in China was less than those elsewhere.

    The doubling time looked dubious anyway given the pattern of clustering in confined spaces. This seems more relevant and more sophisticated mathematically than a crude exponent.

    However, it may follow an exponent early on in local spread. This is what matters in cities in terms of demand on services.
     
  13. Silver Soul

    Silver Soul Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    When things seem to get better, wait for phase 2 to enter. Don't be fooled by these idiots
     
  14. minimilled

    minimilled Active Member

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    With silver, some factors to consider include the hoarding/prepping/panic mentalities (which overlap), the effect on mines and refineries, where you’d think being down a pit vs open cut might be riskier but that is a specialised area miners can best answer, the effect on transport, then industry weighing down on the price while there is no stock on the shelves for retail. Also lockdown and the aftermath in times to come when people are probably going to be a bit jubilant.
     
  15. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The R0 or basic reproduction number is the number of people that each infected person infects. R0 for COVID-19 has been 2-3. Some have been more precise at 2.3.

    Thats quite different to the doubling rate which is how long it take for the number of infected to double.

    It is true that longer term the doubling does slow somewhat. I have not included this in my calculations for simplicity. My figures are not exacting but the do paint a clear picture imho.
     
  16. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Until a vaccine is available

    in China only 1 remote province started school today out of 26 provinces.
    To go from one province to another in China there is 14 days quarantine in government facility

    in South Korea (I have many family members there) there are no scheduled concerts, events, professional sports scheduled till September
    100 seat theatres, 100 seat restaurants cannot open.

    China or South Korea is patently aware that a second outbreak can happen anywhere inside the borders.

    until a vaccine is readily available, any city that relaxes its rules too much is a candidate for Hubei or Italy
     
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  17. minimilled

    minimilled Active Member

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    Yes (@openeyes) - the number still seems off though. The pattern has been on clustering with rapid dissemination when in certain conditions, a number of which have been confined spaces eg a family hotpot in HK, a cruise ship, Korean and Singaporean religious congregations, a nursing home, hospitals. I haven’t looked at it enough, but the number itself seems to lack meaning at face value

    The doubling time is more meaningful, even though it seems to become less so after a certain number of doublings (so far)

    Your picture is useful. The same lines as I was looking at. I am not sure what the real doubling time is but it seems longer than a few days. I’ve stopped looking as I think wherever you are, the issue is your local doubling time. So far, my area is about a week, mindful that with low numbers the true value itself is inherently likely statistically less certain than at many doublings forward.
     
  18. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This is a chart of the basic data known today
    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavi...e-for-the-number-of-confirmed-cases-to-double
     
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  19. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The key I believe, continual vigilance, if one or few cases found drastic containment and contact tracing to cut of spread to more people.
     
  20. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I’m now of an age, with all things being equal, of missing out on a ventilator if there is a younger person requiring it. The earlier suggestion of allowing myself to get the virus now is starting to make sense.
     
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