how long will Trump last

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by Peter, Mar 5, 2017.

  1. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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  2. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Every country imposes hidden taxes. Do you know that branded made in China clothing costs more in China than Singapore, and they cost more in Singapore than in the US. It’s mind boggling but true.
     
  3. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Member

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    Tariffs only cost Americans more money and its like a consumption tax. China doesnt care if our prices rise 25 % because they dont pay any of it.
    We arent out of NAFTA by any means. We have NAFTA 2.0 now and it's just an addition to slick willys agenda from years ago. Nothing has changed but the puppets and now they pull trumps strings. It's one big side show and pathetic to watch.
    Keynsian economics will never work no matter who we vote for but everyone seems to always think it will be different this time. You cant spend your way into prosperity.
     
  4. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Tariffs are more like corporate taxes because companies pay for them. Part of it is transfered to consumers but the actual amount is a lot smaller than we consumers usually think. Using a hypothetical example, a US marketing company buys stuff mickey mouse toys from a Chinese factory for let's say $3 a piece. The marketing company pays a $3 royalty to Walt Disney, and then sells it on Amazon for $18. The actual tariff is only applied on the $3 which works out to 75 cents. Of course, the marketing company can source from Vietnam or Indonesia instead and save the 75 cents.

    I do a lot of adhoc exporting to many Asian countries in my work and one of the most difficult markets to sell to, or rather impossible to sell to is China. There is capital controls and strange tax requirements that a foreign company cannot fulfill. Tariffs are the least of worries because you just need to pay a fee. For example, for India and Indonesia, I may need to pay 20 percent withholding tax. The easiest markets to sell to are developed countries.

    The barriers are significant so if China gives in to Trump other countries (who are watching) will also ask for similar concessions so this makes a deal tricky to say the least.
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2019
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  5. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Member

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    Yeah I agree with that but I'm just saying, it doesnt cost them anything.
    This is the problem, they loan us the debt that we use to buy their products, then also loan us the debt to pay the interest on the loans we will never pay back. We arent even real consumers in definition!
    China can walk away from the table and tell us to get lost and they probably will eventually. It would be in their best interest to break the bond and go elsewhere.
    Trump saying hes going to be "hard on China" makes as much sense as a tax cut followed by increased government spending. It's just put on future debt now (that we will never be able to pay)(+interest)for nothing. China needs us like they need a flea epidemic. Might as well just put Bernie or Hilldabeast in there now and get it over with at this rate.
    I've never bothered voting before with all the past neocons and closet communist liberals (on both sides) and I knew they were all banker boys (and girls) but I hoped it was different this time.
    All the trash talk on the campaign trail really sucked me in and got me pumped up, yet I questioned if it was real at the time.
    I dont question it anymore and wont bother voting for either R or D in the future just on the two facedness and straight up lies and lack of true patriotism. It shows me they arent willing to stand up for what they really believe and if they arent then it's not worth my vote.
    I was a young man at 45 and didnt know any better, dont blame me haha.
    I do love the right to vote but am not convinced that it matters for anything but the sideshow and fake drama while the same people behind the curtain bend us all over generation after generation.
    Just random thoughts from a nobody and thats about all I see really going on these days. It's like some fu(k3d up soap opera/sitcom/everlasting crime novel cept the bad guys arent being chased. The bad guys run everything and we pay them our hard earned $$ to slip us the high hard 1. The worst part is when we tell ourselves its patriotic and that we should feel good for supporting it (even tho it makes your stomachs turn).
    And we wonder where the good days went haha. Prepare for the worst and you can never be disappointed.
     
  6. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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    China needs us a bit more than we need them in my opinion. There is no excuse for the way China treats businesses that come to their country. They make the company give up intellectual property secrets and such to play ball there. Then China rips off the company by using the trade secrets they've obtained.

    Our former presidents in the elite club gave too much to China (along with others) in many respects and didn't obtain much in return. I would like to see cheap crap China imports go up in price if they are not going to play ball with us fairly, maybe that would cause more domestic production of cheap crap items and more jobs here?
     
  7. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    but reality is not wishful thinking
    if a fair deal, just like in the past, UK firms give technology to trade in USA...they did it for market shares
    same for China is doing it, you want market shares, please table your technology... or you are free to walk

    it become too obvious after China retaliate $60 B tariff on US goods, the question arises...who are paying for the tariff on imports... the very people (reality) not what Trump claims to be, his govt get the $100 billion each year
    people know they are going to be paying for that now (ouch)

     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
  8. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Member

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    China definitely doesnt need us anymore and our fearless leaders know this. They have the entire world to sell to or can consume their own fruits of their labor.
    When you have no money to pay the bills to your creditors you've relinquished your power as a buyer and this is where we are now.
    Our leaders have made America one of the most unfriendly to business and industry and this is what happens. Other countries have opened their doors and welcomed our industry and businesses in with open arms.
    Theres a mass exodus of business and citizens from California right now for the same reasons. People will go where they need to if they want to survive and it's just that way.
    If America wants those jobs back it needs to sell that idea and make it inviting. Most corps and those that have left have listened to the promises before and wont fall for it. Those poor 3rd world countries will do about anything to keep the jobs there.
    This is also the reason why the left's idea of attacking the greedy rich wont ever work. The greedy rich, as the left likes to call them, arent stuck with what they are dealt. They simply move and take their wealth and businesses with them.
    Most of them arent rich because they are dumb so they will do whatever they need to preserve that and that includes moving it all overseas.
    China is being blamed as our enemy but they done nothing but played the cards they were dealt and we will have to reap the bad desicions and backroom deals of our sell out and traitorous leaders. Theres no one in DC that has our best interests at heart or even the future of this nation.
    Not one hero General or any law enforcement in washington will speak up against the deep states plans and they never do.
    It's easy to tell if politicians are lying these days. Just look to see if their lips are moving.
     
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  9. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Being a large country with massive population, China faces the same issues as the US multipled by 4-5 times. More people is not necessary better. It means that you need to constantly create jobs to prevent "unrest". India faces the same issue. Because of massive population, exports alone cannot create sufficient jobs for the middle class. Though China is better off than the US in one respect in that the people have no guns and will be easier to control.

    China relies on construction, debt and the bubble economy to create employment for hundreds of millions of people. As we all know, this bubble is the biggest in the world and is not sustainable. Whether there is trade war, tariffs or not, this bubble will implode in a matter of time, be it 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, or next year. If the bubble implodes, it may result in a political situation that disrupts exports. We have seen this happening in Turkey where an artificial political crisis is created to divert attention from economic policy failures.

    Trump's trade war is about diversification of supply chain, to make sure that companies (and countries) have alternatives when the day comes.

    Note that I've not even talked about AI and automation replacing jobs, the situation is bad enough without factoring this in.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2019
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  10. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Google suspends some business with Huawei after Trump blacklist: Source
    NEW YORK (REUTERS) - Alphabet Inc's Google has suspended business with Huawei that requires the transfer of hardware and software products except those covered by open source licenses, a source close to the matter told Reuters on Sunday (May 19), in a blow to the Chinese technology company that the US government has sought to blacklist around the world.

    Huawei Technologies Co Ltd will immediately lose access to updates to the Android operating system, and the next version of its smartphones outside of China will also lose access to popular applications and services including the Google Play Store and Gmail app.

    Details of the specific services were still being discussed internally at Google, according to the source.
    Huawei attorneys are also studying the impact of the US Commerce Department's actions, a Huawei spokesman said on Friday. Huawei was not immediately reachable for further comment.

    Representatives of the US Commerce Department did not immediately have comment.

    Huawei will continue to have access to the version of the Android operating system available through the open source license that is freely open to anyone who wishes to use it.
    But Google will stop providing any technical support and collaboration for Android and Google services to Huawei going forward, the source said.

    On Thursday the Trump administration officially added Huawei to a trade blacklist, immediately enacting restrictions that will make it extremely difficult for the technology giant to do business with US companies.
     
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  11. Gullintanni

    Gullintanni Well-Known Member

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    Why Jim do you think that a country that has existed for more than 3000 (three thousand years) years needs a country like the USA that has existed for around 250 years more than vise versa?

    If i had to pick a dog in this race it would be China because they have been there and done that many times over.
    There is a reason why China is such an ancient continuous nation, and that reason is they are very smart and look well beyond tomorrow or next year.
    The Chinese make plans hundreds of years in advance.
     
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  12. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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    I'm not talking about one vs. the other. I am talking about in terms of trade between the two countries. The US buys much more from China than China buys from the US. Both countries could survive without trading with the other if it came to that.

    It seems everyone blames the US for this "tariff war" but in reality China was imposing more such conditions on the US before Trump was elected. All our past presidents accepted such things.

    You are right the Chinese are smart and they were getting the best of the US in terms of trade conditions. Now is the time to try and make things more level. That, and in addition time to stop the intellectual property theft China is well-known for in the world of business. Eventually an agreement will be made. Just like the new NAFTA that is finalizing now between Canada, US and Mexico.
     
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  13. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Good post Jim4silver.

    I firmly support DJT's view that is should be "Fair Trade...not Free Trade"....as developed nations get sold out by pollies claiming we would be better with free trade / trading block agreements. I wish our lot here would act a bit tougher ie DJT style.

    Now, I'm going to take my weekend winnings and put that on DJT for a second term...at 2.50 to 1.
     
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  14. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Member

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    Yeah our mindsets are very different from the Chinese for sure. I'm not sure if its environmental, genetic, their historic genocides or generation after generation of fear bred into them, the communism, guns to their heads, religion or whatever it is. Maybe all of the above who knows hehe.
    I've only ever been to Iraq and Saudi so havent been around much besides most areas here in the states. I imagine the Chinese are similar to how the Saudis and Iraqis were.
    Happy to have their heads on their bodies!
    It's not a place any of us here would fit in very well...too much free thinking haha.
    Not meant to be offensive to any Chinese silver stackers. Just an observation.
     
  15. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Active Member Silver Stacker

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    There is no one Chinese mindset, just as there is no American mindset. But there are party and political affiliations. Some will support the ccp, some are against as most of HK and Taiwan Chinese people are. China has the ccp "big brother" and the US has the deep state. There are actually a lot of similarities between China and the US. Both are empires that expanded through military conquests. The governments in both countries fear the people so there's a lot of media brain washing. Both governments are now pushing nationalism. This is where the danger comes, but Xi started it with the rocks on the south china sea, so Trump had to respond. Of course, one could also say that Obama and Clinton started it all off with all the chaos in the Middle East.

    I've not been to the Middle East, but had done some exporting to middle east countries many years ago. From my experience, Arab men were ok to deal with (at least to other men, a woman might have a totally different experience though). In China, women are more powerful than men, so totally different culture. It's a
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2019
  16. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    China will soon overtake USA as the #1 economic superpower. They also got their petro-yuan in place. They also got the BRICS banks. They also got the gold, ect, ect.

    Also, the USA will break apart around 2020 after two civil wars.
     
  17. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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  18. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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  19. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    "Can you imagine any prior presidents being that honest about the elite deep state, etc?"
    Yes.
     
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  20. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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