HOT : China is going DOWN

How much of our retail sector is dependent on low price everything?
How much of our property sector is supported by their purchases of hi end homes and farmland?

We don't need them tanking to hound our civilization down a rat hole, we have accomplished that quite well with our own efforts.
At least we have some fossil fuels left. We should be able to keep the lights on for another decade or two.

 

About half.

I saw a report on Max Keiser the otherday showing how Oz is a 2 product, 2 customer economy.

All we sell is coal and Iron Ore (47% of exports) and China and Japan account for ~50% of our export dollars.

 

I posted a link to a graph of who buys what a while ago in another thread It showed all the minerals & what country was buying them. There is plenty of others buying stuff to keep us floating . Korea was a big buyer something i didnt realise until i saw the graph. Korea is a little mentioned powerhouse that keeps plodding along in the background as does taiwan. Im sure if china went south we would be affected but they arent our only trading partner. Even if they did tank they would still buy some product just not in the volumes they do now.

 

I thought the gap in your post was an embedded youtube clip, that wouldn't load properly.

After the second page refresh ... well ..... I realised there was no clip

 

+1

So True... so True...

 

Would the Chinese economy tanking cause a massive knock on effect to other Asian countries?

I am still under the belief that the Australian economy is relying too heavily on the mining sector to keep it steady. When exports begin to subside, you can bet your money on the fact that large mining companies will downsize operations massively in order to keep rolling out big profits.

The whole world feels like it's currently a massive setup of upright dominoes, waiting for something to fall to the point where it hits the next domino and then it'll just spiral out of control.

 

China is following a path the same as Japan and the asian tigers have in previous decades but with so many people they will be developing for decades. They may have booms and busts along the way but they will be buying resources to some degree or another the whole time.

 

China's survived much worse events than the coming Financial Crisis. It will no doubt have a hard time, but it will continue plodding on, just like it has for 5000years.

Will the next Financial Crisis be worse:

- than Western Occupation? Probably not, because drugs aren't being force fed to the population, and territories aren't being taken.
- than Japanese Occupation? Probably not, because there isn't likely going to be destruction of lives and property.
- than the Communist Revolution? Probably not, because there isn't likely going to be destruction of physical assets or lives.
- than the Cultural Revolution? Probably not, because there isn't likely going to be the destruction of the educated classes.

The next Financial Crisis will be just another tough time in World history, but I reckon many nations, including China will get through it.

 

Interesting, discrediting any further argument, by citing Godwin's Law. Citing Godwin's law to prevent further discussion, in effect is the same as letting the converstion continue to the point where you would be introducing Hitler and the Nazis into the argument. It doesn't discredit Naphthalene Man's comment.

Not everyone operates with the best intentions. By believing so, is delusional.

That's not to say we SHOULDN'T be happy for anyone regardless of their fortune. By being angry at someone who has screwed someone over to increase their own lot in life doesn't reverse the unhappiness caused to the victim, in the same way imprisoning a felon temporarily removes them from causing more damage, it does not undo damage done.

The banksters will eventually pay for their crimes, but why would you let any anger build up inside you while you resent them. Being angry isn't a good feeling. If it felt good, it wouldn't be called angry. Pretty simple.

I know what I'd rather feel!

 

That's true of course, but there are still potential restrictions on the number of Chinese buyers of Australian real estate because, for example, the Chinese government might just ban Chinese citizens from having foreign bank accounts.

And if China were to tank, Australia would...well, Australia wouldn't do too well...and that would put downwards pressure on house prices. If you were a Chinese national with cash in a foreign bank account, would you want to spend it buying into a falling Australian residential property market? I'd just leave the cash sitting there if that were me, especially if the AUD is dropping as well. Catching a falling knife in Aussie property isn't any better than catching a falling knife in Chinese property (or equities, or whatever).

 

China going down would be the equivalent of the everyday Australian losing 50% of their income. (on a national basis)

 

If China does fall and our housing starts to slide faster I can see a big bout of stimulus spending coming from the gov, were already being peppered with "retail gloom" stories on tv. Im expecting us to be in recession in the 2nd half of this year and the gov will step in and prolong the agony until our debt is also sky high like other countries

 

The one thing I do not want to be when China and the world economy goes pop is a taxpayer.

 

I wouldn't mind that much, at least in order to be paying tax I still have an income.

 

True. But also probably from a cheaper supplier such as Brazil.

 

Are you suggesting through devaluation of the A$? Or other means? Enquiring minds, would like to know your thoughts euphoria.

 

Totally agree with Julie - Capitalism is and always will be the Land of Boom & Bust... Cyclical corrections are part of the game - in every dept..? It just expends where you are on the curve...