Heading into long-term economic malaise, stagnant gold/silver prices?

Q: Are we looking at a long-term economic malaise with stagnant gold & silver prices?

I'm really starting to think we are heading into a period of long-term, persistent economic malaise. In such a disinflationary environment, barring any major black-swan event, we'll likely see gold and silver prices stagnating (with price blips due to seasonal demand swings).

I'm just not seeing any areas that could truly drive an acceleration of economic growth, and with the political landscape dominated by austerity, we may be looking at decades of economic stagnation just as has afflicted Japan for over two decades.

 

I pretty much think the same.
I think that the main reason for long term/persistent 'malaise' is due to the central planned 'globalization'. It has been sold as less trade barriers, but their motive was just to get rid of any competition that may rout them out one day. That's why they 'harmonize' taxes, move local bank deposited money to everywhere in the world, bail out eachother, try to force a 'multicultural' living together (which is a contradiction in two words, so actually meaning destroying cultures), and so on.
The future appears to me as much similar to the world that Ayn Rand described, where things can detoriate to the level where the lights go out.
But about disinflation/stagnating prices, such a detoriation means more and more problems for the central planning to continue their theft in the degree they need to maintain their parasite fat.
Because it is the opposite of their primary method of theft, instead of working in their advantage, it starts to work against them.
Like it is now, they have 2 choices: either find some way to destroy bank deposits without the owners being 'too angry' (ex make them pay temp more for specific products, but that takes a time they might now have, since people tend to learn from errors) either move on to some world currency, and some level of macro economical control that is quite similar to former CCCP, abit less visible, yet, as destructive. Then things may go faster to the crapper.
However, in the end, we have something to say too, and some things can be said without breaking their laws and without coloring circles on their bogus 'you have something to say' parties. It just requires abit thinking now and then, and some working together can help too.

 

<-----------------SIDEWAYS4EVA-------------------------->

 

Yes, it appears that way at the moment.
Death by deflation.
Things change unexpectedly though. Just when you least expect it.
It will probably go on for a little longer which may drag gold and silver down to lows below production cost.
But when it is darkest.......opportunity.

 

Q: Are we looking at a long-term economic malaise with stagnant gold & silver prices?


No, we are looking at a long-term economic malaise without stagnant gold & silver prices. I think the two propositions are mutually exclusive.

I think as the economic malaise sets in, it will become toxic; falling stock prices, low interest rates, corporate collapses, possible bail-ins, negative returns on investments etc. Where will the smart money be? Outside of the banking cartel!

If the SHTF, PMs will increase quickly, if the markets just stagnate, PMs will rise gradually. However, at all times, what you hold, you own.

 

On the flip side, I also wonder about the effects of loose monetary policies and low interest rates over the last 5 years. It all seems to have gone into the housing and share markets. We now have the mother of all asset bubbles and spectacular private debt levels.

All we need is one hiccup as a catalyst and everything could come tumbling down.

 

The malaise is already here but you need to appreciate it is being generated by governments. Capital is fleeing to private....ie stock markets.
The board is already set and the pieces are moving.
Is the stock market falling?.....no.....and it isn't going to collapse either.
Are precious metals rising?.....he'll no and no strength yet
Are we looking at deflation?....you betcha
All the talk about precious metals out shining everything is just plain wrong. They will move in turn but are only a pawn in the game. Far too small to be of significance. When they do rise it will not be alone.
The biggest moves are yet to be seen. Beware the rise in the U.S. Dollar. This is one of the big moves yet to come. Beware the collapse in the u.s. Dollar. This will be the biggest move but we are a long, long, long way from this.
Who are the better players on this board......not the u.s., not Europe, not Australia.
Watch the capital flows, not the theories. Recipes always look good on paper but the proof is in the pudding.
React to what you see.....not what you think should happen or you will be crushed.

 

I take your point, but where should one position oneself? Do you play the game and hope to have the smarts to outmanoeuvre everyone else at the endgame? Or do you play the game and take your profits and keep them outside of the banking system?

I'm smart enough to know that I am not that smart. I'll simply work, play and stack. If the endgame devastates the economy, I'll be prepared, if it doesn't, I'll still be prepared. Simples.

 

I think you are well on the right track. Most people tend to outsmart themselves.
I am patiently waiting for a pullback to gold $1000 mark before I invest more.
As long as you keep a little on the side if this possibility should eventuate you can boost your stack considerably.

 

SS,

#5.

I am pessimistic enough to think your scenario is probably at the low end of the scale. Once the whole thing falls to bits, it will get rapidly worse from then on. Civilization is only about skin deep, and very bloody social chaos is on my radar!



"I'm smart enough to know that I am not that smart. I'll simply work, play and stack. If the endgame devastates the economy, I'll be prepared, if it doesn't, I'll still be prepared. Simples."


I like that!


OC

 

If this is the eventual outcome then silver will be as useful as dog turds.
If we lose all form of order then it is too much to believe that people will respect mediums of exchange.
Desperate times, desperate people....what is wanted will be taken.

 

As in Berlin (etc) 1945/6, barter will be the name of the game, but in due course we will have to have something of value to aid exchange, and a bit of paper will NOT do the job.

G and S are what it will be.


OC

 

I share some of your pessimism, however, I stack food and cash along with my silver, which I trust will prepare me for most of the worst. In the meantime, being a stacker is tempered with being a good time Charlie boy.

 

Berlin at least had a form of order after the war. Bartering is fine if goods are flowing in.
Your scenario, as an outside possibility, is total.
Our world relies on energy and without it....nothing.
No fuel to bring food to market, no fuel to drive the machines that process the grains and fruits.
Large farms a long way from the city would be useless.
The time between chaos and order would be very long indeed.
22 million hunter gatherers. Supermarkets wiped out in days.
Nobody would have enough bullets to defend themselves at any rate.
Silver and gold as coinage is for growing empires, not collapsing worlds.
Until the balance of food, energy and people is reached again.......

 

No we are in for inflation - that's the only way all these debts will paid
Central banks will choose inflation over collapse - it is the easiest way out

I'm not anywhere near as pessimistic as it seems others here are

Life will continue more or less as usual - there will not be any sort of breakdown in civil order
Many countries have gone through periods of high inflation and life continued

 

"No we are in for inflation - that's the only way all these debts will paid
Central banks will choose inflation over collapse - it is the easiest way out"


Agree 100% I cannot see any other 'doable' alternative.


OC

 

What are the chances that we would first see a period of deflation?

 

Technically...parts of the economy are showing deflation now... consumer electronics, furniture, new car prices etc

 

It is not a matter of what Central banks want.....

It is government policies that are creating the problem
Government spending and rising taxes along with enormous debt levels creating compounding interest.
We have significant deflation occurring at the moment and if the European morons actually go negative interest rates then they are heading towards ashes.

 

If this is your view then why are you not into property with both boots. Inflation means your mortgage in real dollar value terms goes down and your equity in the asset goes up

Kind Regards
non recourse